DFS Three And Out 2019 week 17
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
I know, I know. Brady and New England's offense struggled most of the season. Indeed, in last week's win over Buffalo, the veteran signal caller snapped a string of nine-straight games with a passer rating below 100 and five-straight weeks with completing less than 55 percent of his passes -- both the longest of his career. But snap the string he did, throwing for 271 yards and a TD (good for a passer rating of 111) while completing 26 of 33 passes (79 percent) against a tough Bills defense. This week, the Patriots host the Dolphins and can clinch a first-round bye with a win. As ESPN's Mike Clay noted this week, Miami's "turnstile at cornerback" continued last Sunday and the unit was lit up by Andy Dalton. Miami has now allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past month. The Dolphins have also allowed multiple passing TDs in six consecutive games. Meanwhile, as ESPN's Matthew Berry pointed out, Brady has thrown at least 30 passes in each home game this season, averaging 37.3 attempts per game in Foxboro while the Dolphins allow a TD on 7.2 percent of passes this season (highest in the NFL). By the way, that lousy nine-game run is a big reason why the price ($7,600 on FanDuel; $6,000 on DraftKings) is right this week.
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Remember Hilton? He is, after all, the Colts' No. 1 offensive weapon. I say this realizing that his triggerman, Jacoby Brissett is struggling (yes, I'm being kind). Brissett is currently on a three-game skid during which he hasn't completed more than 53 percent of his pass attempts. He ranks 30th in the NFL in passing yards per game (198.6) and 25th in completion percentage (61.6). Last week, Brissett was an unimpressive 14-of-27 for 119 yards. Over the last six games, Brissett has thrown four touchdowns (including a two-TD game in Week 13) and three interceptions. So why am I interested in Hilton? Maybe because nobody else will be -- and not without good reason (even beyond Brissett's poor play). Hilton was held to 26 yards on four targets in the victory over the Panthers this past Sunday. As ESPN's Mike Clay reminded readers this week, Hilton has now fallen short of 27 yards in each of his past three games and hasn't scored a touchdown since October. ... All that said, the Colts might be catching the Jaguars at the right time. ESPN.com's Jim McCormick, while conceding Brissett's recent lack of touchdown production us a concern, believes there's reason for hope. Consider the Jaguars are one of just nine teams since Week 10 allowing at least 20 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Part of that is due to a Jacksonville pass rush that has evaporated of late. Brissett has completed 70.3 percent of his passes with a 2.8 touchdown-to-interception ratio on passes he's not pressured. So if Brissett is going to rebound (and we're talking about a guy who tossed 14 touchdowns over the first seven games), who benefits? My guy! Hilton was sidelined when these teams played in Week 11, but the speedy wideout is back for a third week in a row. And he'll be looking to close the season out on a high note, not having scored a touchdown since Week 7. Clay notes that Jaguars cornerback A.J. Bouye, who will almost certainly shadow Hilton, is allowing 0.43 fantasy points per coverage snap, which is better than only Giants rookie DeAndre Baker among 64 projected starters at perimeter corner this week. And again, the poor quarterback play, injury downtime and slow rebound combine to make Hilton an affordable ($6,500 on FanDuel; $6,000 on DraftKings) option.
Tyler Higbee, TE, Los Angeles Rams
As ESPN's Field Yates wrote this week: "I'm going to share with you a complete list of every tight end in NFL history with a streak of four consecutive games with at least seven catches and 100 receiving yards: Higbee. Seriously. The dude has been on a tear of late and is a huge, huge part of the Rams' offense." In addition, Higbee tied the franchise record for 100-yard receiving games in a tight end's entire career. Again, he did it all in a row. But wait, there's more. Since Week 13, Higbee ranks in the top three among all players -- not tight ends, all players -- in receptions, yards, targets and red zone targets. So how could it get any better? Well, how about if he was going up against the Cardinals? The possibilities are mind blowing. The downside? Higbee is expensive ($6,900 on FanDuel; $5,600 on DraftKings) and not without risk. Not the least of which is the possibility that key starters might sit out or -- worse for our purposes -- find themselves leaving Sunday's game early. Keep a close eye on the Late-Breaking Updates section for more on that right up through kickoff.
Davante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins
Parker's breakout season continued with another great game as he eclipsed 1,000 yards for the first time in his career (1,067 on the year). He had five catches for 111 yards and his ninth touchdown of the season against the Bengals. According to ESPN.com's Cameron Wolfe, Parker set individual goals for himself to play all 16 games and get 1,000 yards, and he will reach both. It's a triumph for Parker, who had to shake off talk of him being a bust after an injury-stricken and disappointing first four seasons in Miami. Parker is beginning to realize his promise in Year 5, and he looks like a key core member of the 2020 Dolphins after signing a four-year, $40 million contract extension with more than $20 million guaranteed earlier this month. And I've been all in on Parker's breakout. Until now. Because Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore is super good at defending receivers. While Buffalo's John Brown showed last weekend you can score on Gilmore, that TD was the only score Gilmore has allowed. All season. As Berry summed up: "DeAndre Hopkins, Tyreek Hill and Odell Beckham Jr. are all big-play threats who have been the focal point of Bill Belichick's defense; they averaged 12.9 fantasy points per game against New England. That average would be good for WR32 for the season and that sounds about right for expectations for Parker in this one." I cannot argue the point. Nor can I pay the price ($6,900 on FanDuel; $7,100 on DraftKings) -- especially on DraftKings where only eight wideouts will cost you more than Parker will.