DFS Three And Out 2018 Week 16

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm In:

Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers ($8,800 on DraftKings; $9,300 on FanDuel)

How great has McCaffrey been this season? Well, the second-year back is closing in on a mark that only two other players in NFL history have achieved. McCaffrey has 979 rushing yards and 94 catches this season, meaning he’s highly likely to top 1,000 yards and 100 catches before the season is over. As Profootballtalk.com's Michael David Smith notes, if McCaffrey does that, he’ll be just the third player in NFL history to hit both of those marks in the same year. The only other players to do it are Matt Forte of the Bears, who had 1,038 rushing yards and 102 catches in 2014, and LaDainian Tomlinson of the Chargers, who had 1,645 rushing yards and 100 catches in 2003. And what about the move from Cam Newton to Taylor Heinicke? McCaffrey seems likely to be more quarterback-proof than any of Carolina's other skill players. Beyond that, as the Sporting News pointed out, not only has McCaffrey been "an absolute machine" since the start of Week 8, the Falcons have struggled against running backs all season, ranking in the top five in fantasy points allowed to the position. In fact, Atlanta's defense rates the third-worst overall against running backs on our current Fantasy Points Against list. Oh, and McCaffrey racked up 139 yards from scrimmage against them in Week 2. Expensive? You bet. But I'll find a way to make it work, perhaps with the help of a mid-priced back like. ...

Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($5,800 on DraftKings; $6,400 on FanDuel)

With Rashaad Penny sidelined last Sunday, Carson delivered a season-high 119 yards and scored a touchdown (on a hard-fought fourth-down run). Even with Mike Davis and J.D. McKissic on hand to work as receiving options, Carson finished the day with 22 carries for the second-straight week. That qualifies him for "workhorse status." And with Penny missing practice again this week, Carson once again has a clear path to a featured workload. And he's plenty capable of doing something with it. In fact, Carson has a touchdown in four of his last five games and at least 90 rushing yards in three-straight contests, Carson is surprisingly affordable on both the major sites. He's yet to have a multi-TD game this year, but given his current usage, the Sporting News advised readers that it wouldn't be a shock to see that happen this week against a Chiefs defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to running backs so far this season.

Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Chicago Bears ($6,300 on DraftKings; $7,900 on FanDuel)

First of all, I'll concede that Trubisky hasn't been as sharp on the road as at home this season. He owns a 97.2 passer rating at Soldier Field, but on the road his rating has been 87.6 and the Bears are 2-2. He missed two of the road games with a shoulder injury. But, as ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft noted this week, the 49ers haven't intercepted a pass since Week 8 (and that was Josh Rosen, who's pretty easing pickings), have allowed 30 total passing touchdowns compared to only two interceptions through 14 games, and have a 7.0 percent sack rate per attempt that ranks 21st-of-32 teams. Beyond that, ESPN's Matthew Berry points out San Francisco has given up multiple touchdown passes in 11 of 14 games this season. In games in which the Bears have scored at least 20 points this season, Trubisky is averaging 23.1 PPG and he has multiple touchdown passes in seven of those 10 games. Which is all great. But there's more. Trubisky's dual-threat ability will make him a threat to score through the air and on the ground

I'm Out

Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots ($5,600 on DraftKings; $6,600 on FanDuel)

I know what you're thinking here. I went all in on Gronk in a hugely favorable matchup against the Steelers last week -- a matchup he's historically smashed without fail, and I'm just being bitter and vindictive by relegating him to the "Out" bin here. And you're not wrong. ... But there's more to it than that. As Cockroft reminded us, Gronkowski came up short against the Bills in Week 8, delivering a 7.3 PPR fantasy points total off eight targets (he caught three of those targets for 42 yards) despite being healthy enough to take 89 percent of the offensive snaps. Cockroft added that for the season, the Bills have allowed only 1.48 points per target to opposing tight ends, third-lowest in the league. In fact, that 7.3 he put up against them in the last meeting was close to their season-long average allowed to the position (7.8). But there's more to it than that. As big a fan as I might be (and I am), Gronk isn't passing the eyeball test at this point. He's struggling to get open and he doesn't appear to be as fluid in his movements. Granted, I'm bitter. But more than that I'm cheap. And Gronkowski is more expensive than all but four other tight ends on DraftKings and just three on FanDuel. I'll search for bargains with upside at this position, thank you.