DFS 3 and OUT 2017 WEEK 11

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm in:

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
Okay kids, this one isn't hard to figure out. But if I'm paying up this week, I'm paying up for pieces of the Chiefs passing attack, whether it's Kelce (my first choice), Alex Smith and/or Tyreek Hill (yes, stacking seems like a fine approach here). Remember, the Giants have given up 1,309 passing yards over the last four games. But there's no denying they have a special weakness when it comes to opposing tight ends. In fact, the Giants' linebackers have had no answers for stopping them from scoring this year. Thus far, New York has allowed opposing tight ends to score every week, with the Bucs tight ends doubling up in their win over the Giants. Kelce, meanwhile, has scored a touchdown in each of his last three games. Or as ESPN's Field Yates put it: "Kelce is awesome." Yates went on to explain that Kelce is one of the best players in the league, which merits a spot in your lineup with no other advice needed. So yeah. This would be my "Captain Obvious Pick of the Week." But it's a play I'll be making in multiple GPP lineups this week even with Kelce ($7300 on DraftKings; $7500 on FanDuel) the most expensive tight end on DraftKings and the third-most expensive on FanDuel behind Rob Gronkowski and Zach Ertz (thanks FanDuel).

Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants
If you think the Chiefs are going to rack up some big points on the Giants defense, it's also fair to assume New York will be doing something they do on a regular basis: Give up on the run and focus on the pass in an effort to play catchup. We saw it in San Francisco (yes, against the lowly 49ers) last week. Shepard was a bright spot in that game, catching 11 of 13 targets for 142 yards and showing no signs of the ankle injury that cost him two games. This weekend, he'll face a Chiefs pass defense that has struggled in recent weeks. In fact, no team permits more fantasy points to wide receivers than the Chiefs -- as in 42 fantasy points per week. In addition, ESPN's Mike Clay notes the Chiefs are also allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to slot receivers. Shepard has lined up in the slot on 84 percent of his routes this season, which pits him against Kansas City cornerback Steve Nelson on most of his snaps this week. Nelson has been targeted on 27 percent of his 59 coverage snaps and is allowing 0.44 fantasy points per route. The best part? Shepard is a bargain ($6300 on DraftKings; $6500 on FanDuel) given the circumstances.

Jay Cutler, QB, Miami Dolphins
Heaven help me. I'm going here. Fortunately, I won't be alone. Check Armando Marsal's rankings this week. Heck, ask our own Jen Ryan about this one on the Twitters (you'll find her @FFdeJENerate). They're on board. So is ESPN's Matthew Berry, who pointed out this week that Cutler has multiple touchdown passes in four straight games and is facing a Tampa Bay squad that has allowed 260-plus passing yards in eight of nine games this season. I should qualify that by pointing out that Berry added, "If you are desperate, you could do worse." Of course, rather than "desperate," I'll go with "If you just want a cheap ($5400 on DraftKings; $6600 on FanDuel) quarterback with some upside, you could do worse." Much worse. NFL.com's Matt Franciscovich reminded his readers that in Week 9 Cutler burned the Raiders secondary for 311 yards and three touchdowns. The Panthers beat the pants of Miami this past Monday night, but Cutler still finished the game with 213 passing yards and two touchdowns while, as Franciscovich noted, posting more fantasy points than Drew Brees and Dak Prescott. And he has weapons. And this week, those weapons have really good matchups. Only the Chiefs (see above) have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than the Bucs this season. Worth noting, you'll have to pay more for four QBs (one of DraftKings and three on FanDuel) who won't even be playing this week. So yeah. Whether you're desperate or just looking for a bargain, you could definitely do worse than Cutler.

I'm Out

Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
While I suspect Fournette will have a higher workload against the 0-9 Browns), the rookie running back is coming off the worst game of his brief career (33 yards on 17 carries and 46 yards from scrimmage on 19 touches with no touchdowns) and tweaked his right ankle in the fourth quarter against the Chargers last Sunday. It's the same ankle he injured against the Los Angeles Rams on Oct. 15 and Fournette said he's going to have to manage it the rest of the season. It won't keep him from playing in Cleveland, he said, but it might keep me from playing him. It will certainly keep me from paying up for him -- something you'll have to do to roll with him this week. While the Browns are pretty horrible in general, they're not so horrible when it comes to stopping the run. Cleveland has the league's fourth lowest rushing yards allowed (86.4) and they've given up the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Adding to my concerns, Fournette was on the field for 45 snaps against Los Angeles. T.J. Yeldon, who had been inactive the first six games, had three carries and six catches in 31 snaps. Chris Ivory, who is the Jaguars' second-leading rusher, carried the ball just once and caught one pass in only eight snaps. But the fact that both were active is worrisome. It's something you should watch for if you plan to roll with Fournette. It might be nitpicking, but we're talking about an expensive ($8200 on DraftKings; $9300 on FanDuel) play; only one back is more expensive on FanDuel; Fournette is more expensive than all but two others on DraftKings. Oh yeah. The forecast for Cleveland on Sunday calls for temperatures in the 30s, 25-35 mph winds and a 90 percent chance of snow. As ESPN.com's Mike DiRocco noted, Fournette's cold-weather football experience is limited to just one game: LSU's 17-0 loss at Arkansas on Nov. 15, 2014 in Fournette's freshman season. It was 33 degrees at kickoff and Fournette finished with 9 yards on five carries. "I hate the cold, period," Fournette said. I'll take him at his word.