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DFS Three And Out 2021 week 6
Look. ... I'm not trying to horn in on Jamie Calandro's GPP Stacks territory, but we've got a unique situation here: A game with two very capable offenses playing opposite defenses that aren't much interested in playing defense. All of which explains why the over/under for the Chiefs-Football Team Game is set at 55.5. So here you have it. The three pieces I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play from this game this week. ... And one I'm not.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Football Team ($7,100 on DraftKings; $7,400 on FanDuel)
Taylor Heinicke has completed 64.2 percent of his passes (102 of 159) for 1,208 yards, eight touchdowns but with five interceptions. By far, Heinicke's favorite target is wide receiver Terry McLaurin, who leads Washington with 29 receptions for 400 yards and three touchdowns. McLaurin is ninth in the NFL in receiving yards and he is 12th in receptions. As FantasyPros' Kyle Yates noted, McLaurin didn't put up especially impressive numbers in Week 5, but the Saints are one of the tougher matchups for opposing WRs this entire season. The encouraging takeaway is that McLaurin still saw a hefty 27.5 percent target share that resulted in 11 total targets. Through five games, McLaurin now has a 30.2 percent target share, which is the fifth-highest in the entire NFL. On Sunday, he goes up against a Kansas City defense that's currently allowing 37 fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts.
Mecole Hardman, WR Kansas City Chiefs ($4,200 on DraftKings; $5,500 on FanDuel)
As ESPN.com's Tristan H. Cockcroft put it, "No defense has been more disappointing through five weeks than Washington's. ..." This after the unit has surrendered the fourth-most PPR fantasy points to opposing wide receivers (224.1) and has allowed an NFL-most five touchdowns on pass attempts that traveled at least 20 yards downfield. Not surprisingly, Washington is allowing the second-most air yards per passing attempt in 2021. As ESPN.com's Al Zeidenfeld notes, that lines right up with Hardman's greatest skill: Speed. ... Granted, Hardman's 6.8 yard average depth of target is lowest among the Chiefs' wide receivers, but it's not like Washington has fared much better against short-range passes. This defense has surrendered six touchdowns (tied for seventh most) on throws 10 yards or shorter. Adding to that, Washington is yielding 23.6 fantasy points per game to receivers lined up out of the slot. Hardman has run half his routes out of the slot thus far. Does he get enough work? Not always. But sometimes. For example, only five receivers in the league had more targets than Hardman last week when he posted 12 in the Chiefs' Sunday Night Football game against the Bills. Yes, this passing attack runs through Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. But as of Thursday, Hill had yet to practice due to a bruised quad. More importantly, Hardman gives you a piece of this high-powered offense in a super-favorable matchup if you'd prefer to avoid the Hill ($8,500 on DraftKings; $7,700 on FanDuel) and Kelce ($7,000 on DraftKings; $8,500 on FanDuel) premiums.
Ricky Seals-Jones, TE, Washington Football Team ($3,000 on DraftKings; $5,000 on FanDuel)
Have I ever mentioned my addiction to low-priced tight ends in GPP Tournaments? Oh. I have? Pretty much every week? Well, why stop now? Seals-Jones caught 5-of-8 targets for 41 yards in Washington's Week 5 loss to the Saints. With Logan Thomas on IR with a hamstring, Seals-Jones was on the field for all but one offensive snap against the Saints. As Zeidenfeld noted, Seals-Jones ran around on 77.1 percent of Washington's Week 5 dropbacks, which is exactly the sort of usage that Thomas was seeing before going down with a hamstring injury. Adding to the fun, Zeidenfeld points out no team has allowed more red-zone drives than Kansas City, and Seals-Jones provides a big target capable of successfully battling for contested balls.
Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Football Team ($6,500 on DraftKings; $6,700 on FanDuel)
Gibson had 20 carries for 60 yards and two touchdowns in Washington's Week 5 loss to the Saints. Playing through a stress fracture in his shin, Gibson added a pair of catches (on two targets) for 12 yards. As ESPN.com's Eric Moody put it, "Gibson's fantasy day was salvaged by his two touchdowns. J.D. McKissic still out-targeted him against the Saints." Indeed, He's not seeing as much work in the passing attack, which limited him to just 47 percent of the snaps on a heavy passing day. Which brings us back that 55.5 over/under here. ... If Washington finds itself in its passing or two-minute offenses, where McKissic tends to get the bulk of the workload, do I really want to pay the price on Gibson? I don't dislike him as a player. He remains a borderline RB1 for me in redraft. But for this game? At this price? I'm out.