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DFS Three And Out 2020 week 16
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns ($6,100 on DraftKings; $7,600 on FanDuel)
Don't look now, but Mayfield might be playing better than ever. Over the last four weeks, he's has thrown for more than 1,200 yards with 10 touchdowns and just one interception. He was 3 yards away from back-to-back games of over 300 passing yards, and he's had a quarterback rating over 110 in three of the last four games. Let's put that in perspective: Those 10 touchdowns over the last month rank second in the NFL over that span; his 1,232 yards rank third; he's fifth in completion percent (70.2). All that is great. In addition, Mayfield continues to get good protection from his offensive line, his 3.1 seconds before throws the most among qualified quarterbacks, and he's going with more of a short-to-intermediate game plan relying on slot receiver Jarvis Landry in recent weeks. Beyond that, ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft notes the Jets have been getting beaten up by opposing quarterbacks all year but especially since October, surrendering a 20-point game to six of the past 10 starters they've faced. The price hasn't caught up with Mayfield's production any more than it reflects the matchup this week.
David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears ($7,700 on DraftKings; $8,500 on FanDuel)
Montgomery followed up a 113-yard performance in Week 14 by setting career highs with 32 carries and 146 yards in last Sunday's win over the Vikings. Montgomery also scored a pair of touchdowns in a performance that led head coach Matt Nagy to say that the rest of the team is "feeding off" the running back. The numbers bear that out. Montgomery also caught two passes, which meant he touched the ball on 34 of the team's 64 offensive plays. But it's not just the last two games. In fact, the 23-year-old running back has scored touchdowns in four straight games -- the first Bear to do so since Tarik Cohen in 2018. He has 25-plus fantasy points in each of those games. Montgomery, who has the fourth most total opportunities among running backs since Week 8, has topped 100-plus rushing yards in three of the past four weeks. This weekend, Montgomery takes on the Jaguars and their 30th-ranked run defense. As ESPN.com's Al Zeidenfeld notes, Jacksonville allows 2.6 points per drive (third most), a league high 6.3 yards per play and 117.1 rush yards per game to opposing running backs (third most). Is he pricey? Yes. Is it out of line considering the recent production and this week's matchup? Nope.
Logan Thomas, TE, Washington Football Team ($4,900 on DraftKings; $6,000 on FanDuel)
According to FantasyPros' Mike Tagliere, there are just three tight ends who've seen a higher percentage of their team's air yards than Thomas: Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews. That's mighty good company to be in. Those air yards come from being targeted and there was some concern as to whether Dwayne Haskins would lean as heavily on the tight end as Alex Smith has. Haskins targeted Thomas 15 times last week alleviating concerns about usage. It turns out, Thomas provides a good underneath security blanket for whomever plays quarterback for Washington. He's not dynamic, but he creates enough separation and uses his size well. As a result, Thomas has double-digit fantasy points in four straight games, including two games with 20-plus. Thomas' run of production should continue this week against the Panthers, who, as ESPN's Matthew Berry points out, have allowed the fifth-most receptions to tight ends this season.
DK Metcalf. WR, Seattle Seahawks ($7,800 on DraftKings; $7,700 on FanDuel)
Hate to go with the totally obvious, but sometimes it's hard to ignore. ... While our own Gary Davenport notes in this week's "The Shadow Knows," Metcalf has had his way with quite a few big-name cornerbacks, there's one game this season in which he was more-or-less shut down. That would be in Seattle's Week 10 meeting with the Rams, who chose to shadow Metcalf with Jalen Ramsey. Per ESPN's Mike Clay, Ramsey was the primary defender on 29 of Metcalf's 42 routes and held him to 9 yards on three targets on those plays. Metcalf ended up with 28 yards on four targets in the game. Beyond Ramsey, however, the Rams seem stifling in general. Los Angeles has allowed the fewest fantasy points, receiving yards, end zone targets (12) and touchdowns (seven), as well as the lowest yards per target (7.0) and yards per reception (10.5) to the position this season. The Rams have also allowed the fewest fantasy points to the perimeter, where is generally where Metcalf works. So how good is Ramsey? Despite covering No. 1 wide receivers all year, Tagliere notes the star corner has allowed just 0.49 yards per snap in coverage, which is the third-lowest mark in the league. But what about the possibility Ramsey won't shadow? It's not like it's much better on Darious Williams' side of the field, as he ranks 12th while allowing just 0.80 yards per snap. Tagliere went on to note the Rams haven't allowed the deep ball this year, as evidenced by the league-low 10.48 yards per reception and 6.96 yards per target to wide receivers, which are both league-lows. While Clay concedes that Metcalf had moderate success against Ramsey last season, which offers some hope for a bounceback game, given the price, I'll spend my cap allotment elsewhere.