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DFS Three And Out 2016 week 17

By Bob Harris

Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm in:

Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Let's see. ... Doug Martin? Gone. Charles Sims? On IR. Peyton Barber? A bit player. Russell Hansbrough? Who?? Guess what kids? Rodgers suddenly has an unimpeded path to the kind of volume that's not usually associated with players sporting his price tag ($4,900 on DraftKings and $5,200 on FanDuel). Adding to the intrigue, Rodgers had first 100-yard rushing performance of six-year career against this week's opponent, the Panthers, on Oct. 10, gaining 101 on 30 carries and catching five passes for 28 yards in victory. He ran for career-best 154 yards on 25 attempts in following game at San Francisco (I know, who doesn't). But I'm more interested in the touch total than I am in the actual output. And in three games without Sims and Martin earlier this season, Rodgers averaged 24.6 carries and caught a total of seven passes. Yes, the Panthers rank fourth in the league against the run. But they'll be without star linebacker Luke Kuechly (shut down due to a recent concussion) and, barring the unforeseen, Rodgers is a lock for a 20-plus touch outing. Considering you'd pay more for Ameer Abdullah on DraftKings and Jamaal Charles on FanDuel, it's safe to say you could do worse.

Steve Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens
The 37-year-old Smith has been solid all season for Baltimore. He has 67 receptions for 765 yards and leads the team with five touchdown catches and 12 grabs over 20 yards. But this week will be different after Smith acknowledged this will likely be the last game of his long and illustrious NFL career. If you don't think the fiery Smith wants to go out with a bang, think again. In addition, Smith tends to show up in these emotional "milestone" games (think back to his first game against the Panthers, who cut him after 13 years in Carolina -- a two-touchdown, 140-yard outing in Baltimore in 2014). He also tends to show up against the Bengals. In seven meetings, he has averaged 93 yards receiving and has reached the end zone four times. Also worth noting, the Ravens throw the ball. A lot. In fact, Joe Flacco is tied with Drew Brees for the most pass attempts this season (623). So opportunity meets emotion meets price in this one, with Smith ($4,900 on DraftKings and $5,800 on FanDuel) listed as a very affordable option on both the major sites. Smith came up big against the Steelers last week (catching all seven passes thrown his way for 79 yards and a touchdown), look for more of the same this weekend.

Paul Richardson, WR, Seattle Seahawks
With Tyler Lockett placed on injured reserve after breaking both his fibula and tibia in last Saturday’s loss to the Cardinals, Richardson is next man up. And yes, I'm stepping out on the ledge a bit here. Richardson has appeared in 14 games this season, but has only logged 17 receptions for 248 yards. But the price ($4,900 on DraftKings and $5,800 on FanDuel), anticipated role (one that Lockett had parlayed into six and eight targets, respectively, the two weeks prior to going down against Arizona) and matchup are pretty appealing. After Lockett went down last week, Richardson hauled in four of five targets for 42 yards and a touchdown. The speedster should be the Seahawks' deep threat against a San Francisco pass defense allowing the third-most passing touchdowns on the season. Expect a similar stat line as last week with the Niners likely focusing their attention on Doug Baldwin, who burned them for eight catches and 164 yards in the earlier meeting this season.

I'm Out

DeMarco Murray, RB, Tennessee Titans
I know what you're thinking. ... With Matt Cassel replacing the injured Marcus Mariota at QB this week, it makes sense to believe the Titans will lean on Murray and the ground game. But NFL.com's Matt Franciscovich makes a pretty convincing argument against that notion. "Since Week 11, Murray has just two total touchdowns and zero 100-yard rushing games," Franciscovich explained. "In Weeks 1 to 10, he posted 10 total touchdowns and five 100-yard rushing games. His volume has also decreased. He was averaging 24 carries per game in Weeks 4 through 8, but that number dropped to 18 carries per game in Weeks 11 through 16." Indeed, Murray has averaged just 3.6 yards per carry since Week 11 compared to his 4.8 yards per carry in Weeks 1 through 10. And running the ball against a Texans defense that's ranked first overall in the league won't be a walk in the park. Murray might still be a solid volume play, but given his price ($6,300 on DraftKings and $7,800 on FanDuel) and the presence of Derrick Henry, a capable touchdown vulture (as he demonstrated in Kansas City two weeks ago), I'll look elsewhere this week.

And yes. ... This is a unique week. Any number of viable lower-priced options boast more upside than usual with a number of productive offenses likely resting (or in some cases sitting altogether) their top stars. This creates opportunities. And traps -- which I went out of my way to avoid in this piece. Hit the main page of the site and roll through the Late-Breaking Updates or go back even further to Wednesday's Week 17 Team Notes to research before you play.