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DFS Three And Out 2016 week 14

By Bob Harris

Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm in:

Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sometimes, "Better safe than sorry" works in fantasy football. Even in DFS GPP contests. ... This certainly won't be the sexiest pick of the week, but it's one I'm comfortable making. Over his last seven games, Winston has ranged between 18 and 26 fantasy points. And while it's true the Saints have done a decent job in their last seven games of pressuring the quarterback while the secondary provides coverage down the field, they'll need more of that against the Buccaneers in Tampa, where Winston ($6,700 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel) has averaged 20 points per game. I'm not sure they'll get it. As CBSSports.com's Jamey Eisenberg pointed out this week, eight quarterbacks have scored at least 20 Fantasy points against the Saints, including Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford in the past two games. If Winston gets some red-zone shots at Mike Evans, who has topped the 100-yard mark in three of his past five games, and Cameron Brate, seeing the second-year QB match his season-high 29 fantasy points (from Week 1) wouldn't be a shock. But it's the high floor that draws me in here.

Jeremy Hill, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
After Hill racked up 168 yards and a touchdown on just nine carries the last time these teams met (in Week 7), one could easily argue the Bengals' power back has Cleveland's number. Better still, things have changed -- in Hill's favor -- since that last meeting. His workload has increased with Giovani Bernard no longer in the mix. Hill's 23 carries last week were tied for the fourth most of his career. And did I mention he seems to have the Browns' number? Oh wait. What running back doesn't? As ESPN's KC Joyner pointed out, the Browns defense ranks next to last in rush yards allowed per carry before first defensive contact (3.1) and tied for 31st in number of games with an average of three or more yards allowed per carry before first defensive contact (6). As a result, they've yielded a whopping 29 fantasy points per game to running backs. Safe to say that makes Hill ($5,800 on DraftKings, $6,900 on FanDuel) a great value considering there are 12 more expensive options on DraftKings and 14 on FanDuel.

Robby Anderson, WR, New York Jets
This week would have been the 60th birthday of the late rock guitarist Randy Rhoads, best known for his work with Ozzie Osbourne in the early 80s. So it seems fitting to honor him with a "Crazy Train" pick. And it doesn't get much crazier than Anderson. ... Or does it? Anderson ($3,000 on DraftKings, $4,700 on FanDuel) seems to be a favorite of his new starting QB Bryce Petty -- likely because the two worked together almost exclusively in training camp and the preseason. As NJ.com notes, at the time, Anderson, an undrafted free agent, was a roster-bubble wideout, and Petty the Jets' third-string quarterback. But things have taken a "crazy" turn for the duo. Against the Colts last week, Anderson caught four passes for 61 yards and a touchdown. He was wide open behind the defense quite a few times, but Petty missed him on throws. But the important thing here is Anderson received 12 targets against the Colts which was by far the most on the team. In fact, ESPN's Mike Clay notes that Petty has targeted Anderson on 17 (or 29 percent) of his 59 pass attempts this season. As NJ.com's Connor Hughes put it: "Making just the second start of his career, Petty is going to look for what he knows. That's Anderson." He could be in for a big day against a 49ers defense that's prone to giving up big plays. Yeah. Crazy. But that's how it goes (at least in one lineup, right?).

I'm Out

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
Oh look! Rodgers gets a shot at Seattle's defense that will be missing Earl Thomas. And Rodgers has been gaining momentum. In the past seven games, he leads the NFL in touchdown passes and 100-plus rating games. Without Thomas, the temptation will be there for Rodgers to push the ball downfield and attack the middle of the field -- which isn't necessarily the best plan. If the Packers come out trying to gun it downfield, you can expect to see lots of Rodgers holding the ball, running around, trying to make something happen. That wouldn't be good. Rodgers is battling a hamstring injury and Seattle ranks fourth in the league with 31 sacks. And much like Hill seems to have the Browns' number, the Seahawks seem to have Rodgers'. As ESPN's Matthew Berry pointed out this week, Rodgers has yet to pass for 250 yards in six career starts against Seattle, and has never thrown more than two touchdowns in those games. All of which makes me leery to pay up for Rodgers ($6,400 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel), the seventh-highest priced QB on FanDuel and 11th-highest on DraftKings.