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DFS Three And Out 2016 week 13

By Bob Harris

Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm in:

Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Don't look now, but Kaepernick has posted top-10 fantasy totals in each of the last four games. His latest showing, with 296 yards passing, three touchdowns and 113 yards rushing in Miami, might set expectations a bit higher than they should be, but the 49ers quarterback is now averaging more than 23 points per game. In fact, since Week 9, Kaepernick ranks second overall in total fantasy points with 95. But wait; it gets better. As ESPN's Mike Clay pointed out, Kaepernick has been a top-five fantasy quarterback the past six weeks he's been active. In addition, despite not making a start until Week 6, Kaepernick sits top-five in rushing yards among quarterbacks this season. ESPN's Matt Bowen chimed in by noting the quarterback-designed runs in Chip Kelly's offense, plus the vertical concepts that target inside-throwing windows on seam routes, leave Kaepernick poised to keep his roll going against a below-average Bears defense that is working through injuries at all three levels of the field. Given his recent success, it's a bit surprising to find 10 QBs more expensive than his $6,100 on DraftKings and a whopping 13 costing you more than his $7,800 on FanDuel. It might lead to high ownership, but his price leaves plenty of wiggle room to spend on other positions.

Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears
Speaking of spending on other positions. ... How eager am I to get Howard in my base GPP lineups? Let me count the ways. ... While it's true the 49ers are improving against the run, that isn't saying much. They currently sit at 30th in the league in run defense. And even with the improvement, no team in the NFL has given up more rushing yards per game over the past four than the Niners, who, as ESPN's Matthew Berry noted this week, also allow a league-high 3.30 yards per carry before contact this season. In addition, CBSSports.com's Jamey Eisenberg pointed out that a running back has scored double digits in Fantasy points against San Francisco in 10 games in a row. For the season, the 49ers have allowed 17 touchdowns to running backs and 14 different ball carriers have scored double digits in Fantasy points. Eight have rushed for at least 100 yards. Howard, meanwhile, is averaging 132 yards from scrimmage over the last month and leads the NFL in yards after contact per carry since he became a starter in Week 4. Yeah, Howard ($6,900 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel) is the sixth-highest price RB on both the major sites, but I still prefer the rookie to some of those above him.

Malcolm Mitchell, WR, New England Patriots
Mitchell, New England's fourth-round rookie, came up big with two TD catches (he missed on a third end-zone target) in New York last Sunday, giving him nine catches (on 12 targets) for 140 yards and three touchdowns (including a 56 yarder in San Francisco) over the past two games. It seems the only thing that's been holding Mitchell back has been an overall lack of playing time. As Clay pointed out this week, Mitchell was limited to 18 routes against the Jets and is averaging 14.1 per game when Chris Hogan is active. But Mitchell already seems to have overcome the biggest obstacle for any receiver in New England: Gaining Tom Brady's trust. "I think Malcolm has done a lot to gain everyone's trust because he shows up every day, works his butt off and is so committed to the team," Brady observed. ... And it's possible Rob Gronkowski's season-ending back injury could work in his favor. Remember, all of Mitchell's red-zone success against the Jets came after the tight end left the game. Don't be surprised if Mitchell is part of the plan when it comes to filling that Gronk-sized hole in the passing attack. I'm not saying he'll completely fill that void, but. ... "He's got great hands, really big hands for a receiver ... kind of like Gronk," Brady said after the win in San Francisco. Whatever the case, the price ($3,600 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel) doesn't necessarily require a full Gronking and it leaves you ample room to pay up elsewhere.

I'm Out

Kirk Cousins, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Yes, Cousins has been on a hot streak. He currently ranks second in total pass yards with 3,540, only trailing Drew Brees' 3,587. He's fourth in completion percentage with 68.4 percent. He's ninth in passing touchdowns with 20 and sixth in quarterback rating with 101.4. But he heads to Arizona this weekend and the Cardinals boast an impressive pass defense. In fact, Arizona allows just 195 passing yards per game, second-best in the NFL, thanks to a secondary loaded with playmakers. So even with Cousins clearly on the rise down the stretch, the likely absence of Jordan Reed (shoulder) won't make life any easier against a defense that hasn't allowed any QB this season to throw for 270 yards, has only given up a league-low nine passing TDs and that's only allowed more than one touchdown pass in a single game on two occasions -- and those were both two-TD outings (by Matt Ryan and Case Keenum). The price isn't all that bad ($6,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel), but the matchup isn't one I expect him to get past.