DFS 3 and OUT 2017 WEEK 7

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris

I'm in:

Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Don't look now, but Bryant has been targeted 16 and 13 times in games this season, and that's against defenses far less generous than the 49ers. In fact, as ESPN's Field Yates pointed out, when excluding a game against the Cardinals in which he drew the unenviable matchup of cornerback Patrick Peterson, Bryant has averaged 11.5 targets per game. Meanwhile, 49ers cornerbacks Rashard Robinson, Dontae Johnson and their mates have given up three consecutive 300-yard games, and there's little reason to expect that streak to end here. In fact, as ESPN's Mike Clay notes, players lined up against Johnson have scored 70 fantasy points this season (eighth-most). Clay adds that is who Bryant will face on as many as half of his routes this week. Robinson is the 49ers' best corner and will be on Bryant quite a bit but shouldn't be much of a roadblock for the Cowboys' top wideout. Bryant aligns in the slot on 27 percent of his routes, so he'll also see some of underwhelming K'Waun Williams. The fact that Bryant's overall production has also been a bit underwhelming -- he has three touchdowns but no 100-yard games -- might put a damper on his ownership levels. Whatever the case, catching Bryant in a rare positive matchup for Bryant after a string of much tougher outings (Arizona, Denver, the Giants and Rams among them) led Yates to suggest "This could be a monster day." It certainly could be. You'll also have to pay up for it. And cheap though I might be, Bryant ($7800 on DraftKings, $8200 on FanDuel) will be a pricey option I don't back off.

Brett Hundley, QB, Green Bay Packers

If I'm paying up for Bryant, I'll need some less expensive players at other positions. I know. How about at quarterback? How about Hundley ($5100 on DraftKings, $6500 on FanDuel)? If you're looking for cheap, he'll cost you less than Minnesota's Teddy Bridgewater -- a guy who isn't even on his team's active roster -- on FanDuel this week. As Yates noted, the Packers have developed Hundley for three offseasons now since using a 2015 fifth-round pick on him. He played his first snaps of consequence when filling in for Rodgers in Week 6, throwing one touchdown and three picks. While Hundley obviously lacks Aaron Rodgers' experience and savvy, he's mobile and has a big arm. He's also going up against a Saints defense that ranks 28th against the pass and 26th overall. So the scheme, potentially the matchup and certainly a supporting cast featuring Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Martellus Bennett and running backs Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones all work in Hundley's favor. Can we add history and coaching to that list? As ESPN.com's Scott Kacsmar reminded readers, in 2010, head coach Mike McCarthy had Matt Flynn toss three touchdowns in his first start at New England. He knows how to coach offense. Is Hundley a safe bet? Absolutely not. But in the world of GPP, he's not a bad one.

Pierre Garcon, WR, San Francisco 49ers

The Cowboys have allowed two or more touchdowns to wideouts in three of the last four games, so the door is open for someone to shine. Chances are that'll be dependable Garcon ($5800 on DraftKings, $6700 on FanDuel). But new quarterback C.J. Beathard demonstrated an interest in getting the ball downfield in his NFL debut last week, so fantasy owners willing to go way out on a limb might consider speedy Marquise Goodwin ($3900 on DraftKings, $5000 on FanDuel), who with just one long touchdown catch could be a difference-maker this week. That said, Cowboys rookie cornerback Jourdan Lewis has also been a target for big plays for opposing teams. The Packers picked on Lewis in the second half of the 35-31 victory two weeks ago including the game-winning touchdown pass. The 49ers will attack Lewis with Garcon, a savvy veteran who still has a knack for the big play and who has always played well against the Cowboys from his days with the Redskins before joining the 49ers in the offseason.

I'm Out

A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Green, the NFL’s second-leading receiver with 504 yards in five games, faces the Steelers’ No. 1 ranked pass defense, a unit allowing just 154 passing yards per game. Yes. I realize Green has a strong history versus Pittsburgh. As in 77 catches for 1,046 yards and seven TDs against in 12 career appearances against them. But the Steelers are allowing an NFL-low 20 fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. According to Bengals.com's Geoff Hobson, one of the burning questions this week surrounds how the Steelers will use cornerback Joe Haden. Will they break the protocol of the defense they’ve run for a generation and send Haden all over the field to follow Green? Does it matter? As Clay pointed out, Artie Burns and Haden have held down the perimeter, which is where Green (88 percent of his 2017 routes) primarily aligns. Green has caught touchdown passes in four of his past six games against the Steelers, but the Steelers held him to just four catches for 38 yards in the only game Green played against them last season. Haden, in his eighth season, has three interceptions in 10 career games against the Bengals. Haden and Green had some classic matchups during Haden's seven seasons in Cleveland. According to Clay, Green has 15 catches for 194 yards and two touchdowns on 34 targets on the 131 career routes working against Haden. A few months ago when he penned a Players’ Tribune article about the five toughest cornerbacks he’s face, Green ranked the 5-11, 195-pound Haden behind only Patrick Peterson while praising Haden’s ability to complicate his releases from the line of scrimmage. Look, I'm not saying Green can't get the job done in this one. It's more like I don't want to pay the price of admission ($8300 on DraftKings, $8500 on FanDuel) to find out.