DFS Three And Out 2021 week 3
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.
Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants ($5,800 on DraftKings; $7,400 on FanDuel)
As SBNation.com suggested this week, Jones is hard to figure out. His 2019 rookie season looked promising, though ball security issues were a concern. His 2020 was a step back and he's been inconsistent so far this year, though fairly good against Washington. But here's the thing: Whether Jones has hit stride or the coaching staff has finally figured out how to best leverage his abilities, the third-year signal caller is an interesting prospect heading into this week's matchup against a generous Falcons defense. In case you missed it, Jones exploded on Thursday Night Football in Week 2, racking up 31 fantasy points, rushing for 95 yards and a touchdown while throwing 249 passing yards and another score. As NFL.com's Michael F. Florio notes, it could have been an even bigger day if he hadn't lost about 20 yards and a touchdown on a long run to a penalty. Nonetheless, the rushing angle is the key here. As Florio put it, "Jones is blossoming into one of those cheat codes running QBs." So far this season, Jones has 15 total carries with a rushing touchdown in each game. In addition, he's led the team in rushing yards in both game -- something he also did six times in 2020, a single season record for a Giants quarterback in the Super Bowl era. This week, with what should be an increasingly-healthy supporting cast, Jones goes up against the eighth-worst red zone defense last season and one that ESPN.com's Al Zeidenfeld notes has allowed a touchdown on 7-of-8 such trips in 2021. Price, matchup and momentum. I like it. The 48.5-point over/under adds to the intrigue.
Marvin Jones Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,900 on DraftKings; $6,300 on FanDuel)
Don't look now, but Jones leads the Jaguars in targets, catches, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. That's an average of 9.5 targets, 5.5 receptions, 66 receiving yards and one touchdown per game and he's the WR16 after two games. Trevor Lawrence leads the league in deep pass attempts and, as Zeidenfeld added: "While he has not been efficient at connecting on all of those deep throws, when he finally clicks, a player with Jones' volume will feast." Yes, Arizona's pass rush is a concern. But the Cardinals secondary has given up the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing WRs and they rank 18th in the NFL in conceding in conceding two passing touchdowns per game. Is there upside here? Jones doesn't have any multiple TD games yet this season, but he's one of only four players in NFL history (along with Jerry Rice, Sterling Sharpe and Bob Shaw) to have multiple four-TD games in their careers. Even if I don't expect a third career four-TD game this week, Jones is capable of going off any given Sunday. That's especially true with the Jags likely trying to play keep up in a game with 51.5-point over/under. And the price allows for some multi-layered stacking in this game
Maxx Williams, TE, Arizona Cardinals ($3,200 on DraftKings; $4,700 on FanDuel)
I know what you're thinking: "When is he going to quit chasing the tight end points?" The answer is probably "never." It's certainly not with a tight end in an offense averaging 36 points per game going up against a defense allowing 30 points per game in a contest that boasts the afore-mentioned 51.5 over/under. Of course, Williams had seven catches for 94 yards, single-game bests for him in his career -- and admittedly rare numbers for a Cardinals tight end -- against the Vikings last week. Indeed, Williams first two weeks illustrate that as he was shut out by the Titans in Week 1 before finishing as TE4 with 16 fantasy points last Sunday. As ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft suggests, that uncertainty does make him tough to trust, but Kyler Murray has been spreading the ball around plenty thus far, he's playing at about the highest level he has in his NFL career, and this matchup is a golden one for tight ends. The Jaguars, after all, surrendered 10 fantasy points to Pharaoh Brown in Week 1, and nearly 20 combined to Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam in Week 2. As Cockroft summed up, "Williams is as risk/reward as they come. ... But the potential reward is much higher than it is for other non-top-15 tight ends." And once again, if you're looking to create some multi-tiered stacks in this game, Williams offers some flexibility to do that.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Football Team ($6,900 on DraftKings; $7,200 on FanDuel)
So if I was looking for reasonably-priced dart tosses for my three "in" plays, why not go with a top-10 choice at his respective position for my "out." I almost went with Calvin Ridley ($7,000 on DraftKings; $8,100 on FanDuel) here, but McLaurin gets the nod instead. It came down to the matchup. Giants' cornerback James Bradberry has been one of the league's best and most-utilized shadow corners during his time in the league and we saw him in that role against McLaurin in Week 2 (a role he'll play against Ridley this week, by the way). McLaurin put together a strong (11-catch, 107-yard, 1-TD) receiving line in the game, but as EPSN's Mike Clay notes, about half of that came on a few plays he wasn't facing Bradberry. So how should we feel about McLaurin going up against Buffalo's Tre'Davious White this week? Per Clay, Buffalo has allowed 55 fantasy points to wide receivers through two games, which is 25 below their expected total of 80. That gap is best in the NFL. Buffalo has faced the fourth-most WR routes and targets, but has allowed only 255 yards (sixth-lowest), one touchdown and 4.9 yards per target (lowest). As if that's not enough to make us wary of McLaurin, Clay points to possible shadow coverage from White. Buffalo's star corner hasn't shadowed yet this season, but did when the matchup called for it in the past. Even if White doesn't shadow McLaurin, Buffalo's pass defense has played so well overall that we should lower expectations for "F1" and his fellow pass-catchers.