DFS Three And Out 2021 week 14

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris

I like tight ends, but I cannot lie. ... This might not be the best week for them. As ESPN's Tristan Cockroft pointed out, we have some of the best defenses to exploit (the Eagles and Colts) on bye. In addition, some of the other easy matchups facing obvious, top-shelf positional talent (Travis Kelce versus the Raiders, Mark Andrews versus the Browns, George Kittle versus the Bengals, to name three), that will draw heavy interest -- as they should.

That being the case, I'll dive a little deeper and toss out three others that might be slightly less obvious and hopefully slightly less-owned and give you one I'm avoiding.




I'm In

Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel),

Yes, Gronk had another pair of TD catches against the Falcons in Week 13. And it's also true he's played seven games this season and has three multiple-TD performances. Over the last three weeks, Gronk has 17 catches for 252 yards with the two touchdowns on 25 targets -- that's eight or more per game over that span. He's also seen at least one red-zone target in all seven of his healthy games this season. So what's not to like here? Well, the matchup isn't the best and Gronkowski, while the price isn't exorbitant, isn't exactly a value play. As for the matchup, the Bills are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per games to tight ends, but as SI.com put it, "Gronkowski has the momentum right now to post an outlier performance compared to Buffalo's defensive standards."


Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Bills ($5,000 on DraftKings; $6,000 on FanDuel)

There's something extra irresistible about a tight end coming off a poor showing. And as FantasyPros put it, "Knox had a nightmarish game against the Patriots in Week 13, short-circuiting a couple of drives with drops." He finished the game with just two catches for scoreless 14 yards. Still, he was targeted six times against New England -- including twice in the red zone, giving him a 20.2 percent target share over the past three games. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers defense is tough. But not against opposing tight ends. In fact, they've allowed the fourth-most points per game to the position this season. They've also allowed 10-plus fantasy points to seven different players at the position in 2021. As Cockroft noted, in the past seven weeks, Cole Kmet (9.3 PPR fantasy points, Week 7), Jack Doyle (20.1 points, Week 12) and Kyle Pitts (8.8, Week 13) all had productive outings against this defense.


Brevin Jordan, TE, Houston Texans ($2,500 on DraftKings; $4,600 on FanDuel)

As ESPN's Eric Moody notes, Jordan has emerged as a solid option at tight end for the Texans. Although he hasn't had a stellar five-game record, he's scored two touchdowns and has led all tight ends on the team in red-zone targets since joining the active roster. ESPN's Al Zeidenfeld added to that by noting that while it's only been a 64-route sample size, Jordan's 16 targets means he's been targeted on 25% of his routes. For a frame of reference, Zeidenfeld notes that Kelce is at 25.2% this season. With the Seahawks allowing the fourth most points per game to tight ends this season, hoping the team's quarterback of choice will look for him seems likelier than the Texans actually being in scoring situations. But with Houston coming off a shutout loss, it's safe to say Jordan can add "low-owned" to the list of benefits for tournament players with the primary benefit being that free-square price.




I'm Out

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons ($5,500 on DraftKings; $5,900 on FanDuel)

T.J. Hockenson was my first choice here, but I don't like to use injured players here and he's dealing with a hand issue that has his status uncertain. So the pivot here seems easy and obvious. While he continues to see a significant target share -- he's had more than five targets in every game this season but one, Pitts isn't producing at a commiserate level. The problem is also obvious: Opposing defenses have figured out that the best way to shut down Atlanta's passing attack is to take Pitts out of the game. The Falcons have little in the way of deep threats on the outside, so opponents are doubling up on Pitts to make sure he can't get loose. He had just four catches for 48 yards against Tampa Bay, giving him nine receptions for 103 yards over the past three games. More troubling, the Falcons can't find a way to get him involved in the red zone. Pitts' only TD this season came way back in Week 5. Adding to the woes this week, Pitts aligns at outside receiver roughly 10 times per game, which according to ESPN's Mike Clay, means he should expect shadow treatment from Panthers cornerback Stefon Gilmore on those plays. When these teams met in Week 8, Gilmore played 11 snaps in his season debut and covered Pitts on five of those plays. Pitts totaled a two catches for 13 yards on six targets in that game. So the production doesn't match the workload; the matchup isn't great; and the price remains high.