DFS Hunter Report Week 12 2018

By Dave Hunter

With the Thanksgiving Week on tap, I’m going to change things up a bit from my usual piece and only give a few lines of support regarding each player, mainly as I want to hit the Thursday docket as well as the weekend games ahead.

Good luck, and Happy Thanksgiving!

As I mention every week, I’ll be basing my weekly write-ups off DraftKings salaries, keeping in mind all suggestions are not equal and some players I like more for tournament or cash lineup builds over others.

QUARTERBACK

Thanksgiving Games

Top Level

Matt Ryan, ATL @ New Orleans Saints ($6,100) – For me it’s either Ryan or Drew Brees for the Thursday games. Expect a shootout, and don’t be surprised if Ryan outplays Brees. I love Ryan for all lineup formats, although Brees is a bit safer for cash play games.

Other Choices: Drew Brees, NO vs. Atlanta Falcons ($6,700)

Value

Chase Daniel, CHI @ Detroit Lions ($4,400) – Daniel is purely a tournament play. I do like the weapons the Bears have on the offensive side of the ball, which will aid Daniel in offensive output. The matchup plays into Daniel’s hands as well, and if for some reason you hate paying up at QB this week then I do like Daniels along with Colt McCoy as longshot plays.

Other Choices: Colt McCoy, WAS @ Dallas Cowboys ($4,700)

Over-Value

Matthew Stafford, DET vs. Chicago Bears ($5,300) – Stafford is struggling way too much this season and is facing the best overall defense in the game in the Bears. You’re paying too much to roster Stafford’s inconsistent play.

Other Choices: None

Sunday Games

Top Level

None – there isn’t a QB I consider a Top-Level play in Week 12, so you don’t have to spend up at this slot at all.

Value

Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. Oakland Raiders ($5,700) – Can the Raiders stop Jackson and his running ability? I’m say no. And there’s a good chance that Joe Flacco doesn’t play, and that means the sub-$6K price on Jackson is highly enticing. I really dig Jackson in the Sunday slate of games for tournament play.

Other Choices: Russell Wilson, SEA @ Carolina Panthers ($5,600); Baker Mayfield, CLE @ Cincinnati Bengals ($5,500); Nick Mullens, SF @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,500)

Over-Value

Jameis Winston, TB vs. San Francisco 49ers ($6,000) – This whole wishy-washy starting QB routine that the Bucs have going is irritating. I know the matchup seems fair, just not convinced that Winston is able to put up the numbers to earn $6K value.

Other Choices: Tom Brady, NE @ New York Jets ($6,500)

RUNNING BACK

Thanksgiving Games

Top Level

Alvin Kamara, NO vs. Atlanta Falcons ($8,300) – If there’s any favorite to hit the 30-plus point mark on the Thanksgiving slate, it’s Kamara. Vegas has a 60-point total line, so, yeah, there’s going to be some scoring. You know as well as I do Kamara will get big hunk of the pie.

Other Choices: None

Value

Theo Riddick, DET vs. Chicago Bears ($4,500) – Riddick’s value lies all within the dump off passes Stafford will throw his way. With Kerryon Johnson out of action, Riddick may gain added touches overall too. Still, the Lions will fall behind early in this game even with Mitchell Trubisky doubtful to play, and I see at least 6-7 targets.

Other Choices: Mark Ingram, NO vs. Atlanta Falcons ($6,100); Tevin Coleman, ATL @ New Orleans Saints ($5,200)

Over-Value

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs. Washington Redskins ($8,600) – I feel like I’m reaching if I spend $8.6K on Elliott, especially as he’s coming off two incredible games. I mean, that isn’t reason to stay away from Elliott by itself, although I don’t expect him to earn value at this price. Plus, the Redskins defense is an under-the-radar unit and I’m loading up on their DST for my DFS lineups.

Other Choices: None

Sunday Games

Top Level

Melvin Gordon, LAC vs. Arizona Cardinals ($8,600) – This is about as good as it gets for DFS owners at RB, with Gordon matched up facing the Cardinals, who likely won’t win another game this season. Gordon’s 27FPPG average is enticing, isn’t it?

Other Choices: Saquon Barkley, NYG @ Philadelphia Eagles ($9,100); James Conner, PIT @ Denver Broncos ($7,800); James White, NE @ New York Jets ($7,400)

Value

Matt Breida, SF @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,700) – It’s tough to peg Breida week-to-week with his inconsistencies and injury battles in 2018; however, I’m on board, especially when you look at the Bucs inability to stop runners. Yikes. This is good for us, and I’m expecting Breida to be under owned.

Other Choices: Leonard Fournette, JAC @ Buffalo Bills ($6,700); Nick Chubb, CLE @ Cincinnati Bengals ($6,300); Marlon Mack, IND vs. Miami Dolphins ($5,500)

Over-Value

None

WIDE RECEIVER

Thanksgiving Games

Top Level

Julio Jones, ATL @ New Orleans Saints ($8,300) – Jones has been incredibly consistent with his numbers over the last few weeks and I’m surprised that his price tag dropped by $200. I don’t see a reason why anyone needs to avoid Jones unless you’re seeking a contrarian play.

Other Choices: Michael Thomas, NO vs. Atlanta Falcons ($8,900)

Value

Kenny Golladay, DET vs. Chicago Bears ($6,400) – With all the injuries to the Lions receivers, Golladay has a chance to really step up and shine. The price is pretty good for the potential in value he provides. I don’t like Stafford this week, although I do like him enough to get the ball to Golladay for 1 TD score and some good yardage.

Other Choices: Calvin Ridley, ATL @ New Orleans Saints ($6,400); Anthony Miller, CHI @ Detroit Lions ($4,400); Josh Doctson, WAS @ Dallas Cowboys ($4,100)

Over-Value

Amari Cooper, DAL vs. Washington Redskins ($5,700) – Cooper’s price is okay, but again I really like the Redskins defense to pull through. I’d rather spend up at WR in Julio Jones or Michael Thomas.

Other Choices: None

Sunday Games

Top Level

Odell Beckham, NYG @ Philadelphia Eagles ($8,800) – There is no better receiver to roster this week, assuming you can wrestle his $8.8K price tag onto your roster. With the values this week there’s plenty of room for Beckham. This should be a good divisional matchup, with Beckham’s ceiling as high as 30 points.

Other Choices: Antonio Brown, PIT @ Denver Broncos ($8,700); Julian Edelman, NE @ New York Jets ($7,000)

Value

Marquise Goodwin, SF @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,600) – Goodwin is completely hit or miss, and I understand if you don’t trust him enough to give him a whirl. A tournament play only for me, Goodwin offers massive potential against the Bucs defense. Mullens will bounce back, and he’ll need a WR to throw to aside from TE George Kittle.

Other Choices: Jarvis Landry, CLE @ Cincinnati Bengals ($5,900); Sterling Shepard, NYG @ Philadelphia Eagles ($5,300); D.J. Moore, CAR vs. Seattle Seahawks ($4,600)

Over-Value

Mike Evans, TB vs. San Francisco 49ers ($7,700) – Almost $8K for Evans is a bit of a stretch for me, especially after laying eggs in Week 9 and 10. Yes, I know he bounced back last week, so something to keep in mind. I’d rather look to a more “sure” thing at this price point.

Other Choices: None

TIGHT END

Thanksgiving Games

Top Level

Austin Hooper, ATL @ New Orleans Saints ($4,200)

Trey Burton, CHI @ Detroit Lions ($4,000)

Value

Ben Watson, NO vs. Atlanta Falcons ($3,200)

Over-Value

None

Sunday Games

Top Level

Zach Ertz, PHI vs. New York Giants ($6,400)

George Kittle, SF @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,200)

Value

Eric Ebron, IND vs. Miami Dolphins ($4,000)

Over-Value

Rob Gronkowski, NE @ New York Jets ($5,100)

Good luck in Week 12! Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy