DFS GPP STACKS WEEK 7 2021

DFS NFL GAME STACKS TO TARGET - WEEK 7

Despite the bye weeks, we still have a good amount of upside on this slate for stacking, highlighted by what could be an epic offense-fest between KC and TEN. I’ll be discussing every game with @dfs_numbers this Sunday as always at 10 EST, and make sure to follow me on twitter @jac3600 and check out the rest of my work over at Football Diehards as well!

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT TENNESSEE TITANS

CHIEFS
This is the highlight game on the slate, highlighted by two above-average to elite offenses and a current O/U of 57 points. The Chiefs passing game takes center stage in this one and you can load right up against the Titans D who have allowed the most FPPG to WRs and the second most to QBs. Patrick Mahomes (already the QB1 in fantasy) is in a smash spot here, as is Tyreek Hill who arguably has overall WR1 potential. The only issue with him is that he’s still dealing with a quad injury and only played on 47 of 82 snaps last week (he still got 12 targets, but the snap share is a tad worrisome). Mecole Hardman has 17 targets over the past two weeks and his air yards share is rising rapidly as well. If Tyreek were to sit, he’d be the top value on the slate. Obviously there is nothing wrong with Travis Kelce, who remains too cheap at $7600 for someone who has double-digit targets in three of his last four games. Tennessee has actually been quite good against TEs (third fewest FPPG allowed), but I think that’s more an indictment of how bad they are against WRs instead. Kelce is in his own tier always at the TE position.

As far as the running game goes, keep riding that Darrel Williams train. He had 24 touches on a 71% snap share and scored twice, and his price has not risen near enough for the workhorse role he exhibited last week against Washington.

TITANS
The Titans side starts with Derrick Henry. The game script is not in his favor (TEN +6), but this Titans squad is riding the Big Dog for all they’re worth right now. He’s averaged 32 touches per game since his week one dud and has scored an incredible 10 TDs already. The Chiefs rank 19th in rush defense DVOA and have allowed the 12th most FPPG to the position.

Unfortunately the passing game is in flux right now. Julio Jones reaggravated his hamstring and is truly questionable, and AJ Brown is currently tweeting that his “body is rejecting food” (whatever that implies for the slate). If the cheap WRs become “things”, I’m a little less interested in stacking this side and will focus on the Chiefs. It’s a shame too, because Ryan Tannehill quietly has top-12 upside in this one against KC who has allowed the second most FPPG to opposing QBs. If Brown and/or Julio play, the stack appeal heightens, but I’m not interested in Westbrook-Ikhine, Chester Rogers, or Anthony Firkser.

STACK IDEAS
Mahomes/Hill/Kelce w/Henry (this is tough to pull off)
Mahomes/Hardman/Kelce w/ Henry
Mahomes/Hill/Kelce w/ AJ Brown

Tannehill/Brown w/ Hill or Kelce
Tannehill/Brown w/ DWilliams

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

EAGLES
After the KC/TEN game, there’s a major drop off in game total to the rest of the games (about eight points to the next highest). The PHI/LV is currently sporting an O/U of 48.5 which is good but not great, but I kinda like the over here. Jalen Hurts, despite being wildly inefficient, is still the QB5 in fantasy thanks to his legs (he’s second in QB rushing yards and is tied for first in QB rushing TDs). He has definite pairings in this one as well in Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Smith is in a bad spot against LV who has allowed the third fewest FPPG to WRs, but he still has a 41% air yards share which easily outstrips the rest of the team. Goedert is in a smash spot as long as he’s OK from his COVID bout. Zack Ertz is gone which opens up TE1 potential for Goedert, and Vegas has allowed the sixth most FPPG to TEs. Jalen Reagoe can be mixed into MME as well.

Miles Sanders deserves yet ANOTHER shot here after running an 83% snap share last week despite a negative game script against TB last week. It’s possible he gets it a little more positive this week, and LV has allowed the tenth most FPPG to opposing RBs. The important part is how decisively her outsnapped Kenneth Gainwell last week even though it set it set up as a Gainwell week.

RAIDERS
I absolutely love Derek Carr and company this week. The removal of Jon Gruden has promoted other coaches into prominent spots, and seemingly opened up the playbook immensely as play-action was used constantly. Carr logged almost 13 YPA last week which has him oozing upside at his 6k price tag, even though the Eagles have allowed the seventh fewest FPPG to QBs. Darren Waller should crush Philly who has allowed the seventh most FPPG to TEs. Waller is once again pacing all TEs in market share. Henry Ruggs has a tough draw against Darius Slay in this one, but his game-breaking speed keeps him tournament worthy.

Josh Jacobs is...ok for this one, but the Eagles are generally a pass funnel defense that stuffs the run, and Jacobs is averaging under 4 YPC again. I’m actually more interested in Kenyan Drake after he flourished in the play-action last week, even though he ran far less snaps.

STACK IDEAS
Hurts/Smith/Goedert w/ Waller
Hurts/Smith/Goedert w/ Jacobs
Hurts/Smith/Reagor w/ Waller

Carr/Waller w/ Goedert
Carr/Waller/Ruggs w/ Sanders

DETROIT LIONS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS

RAMS
Much like my Bengals/Lions stack last week, I’m really only interested in stacking one side of this and bringing it back a specific way. The Rams have a team total of 32.5 which is higher even than the Chiefs’, and it makes sense since they rank #1 in offensive DVOA. Darrell Henderson is likely to carry massive ownership in a smash spot against Detroit who ranks last in FPPG allowed to opposing RBs (and falling), so the natural leverage play is to totally stack the passing game in the hopes Detroit can keep it somewhat close for awhile. Detroit’s secondary is a mess in all facets, and it’s highly possible both Kupp and Woods erupt in this one. Since the Lions also rank last in QB hit rate and also QB rating, Stafford should have a clean pocket all game to pick apart their defense. Tyler Higbee’s target and air yards share is horrible, but he’s played 100% of snaps the last two weeks and is over 90% on the season. He’s pretty much TD or bust, but is the best pivot off the chalkier WRs and RB. In deeper MME tournaments, Van Jefferson and DeSean Jackson have HR appeal against a Detroit secondary that has allowed the most passing plays of 25 yards or more.

LIONS
For Detroit, D’Andre Swift is once again at the top of my list for tournament RBs, and he’s the easy bringback to this Rams stack. Every week we say that his snap share is a new career high, and last week was no different as he got up to 78%. Swift leads all RBs in both receptions and receiving yards, and the Rams have allowed the ninth most receptions out of the backfield. If you want to get even cuter and pivot off Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown has 23 targets over the last three weeks. Just don’t expect slate-breaking TD upside.

STACK IDEAS
Stafford/Kupp/Woods w/ Swift
Stafford/Kupp/Higbee w/ Swift
Stafford/Kupp/Jefferson w/ Swift

Goff/Swift/St. Brown w/ Kupp