DFS Three And Out 2020 week 2
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills ($6,700 on DraftKings; $8,200 on FanDuel)
In case you haven't been paying attention, Allen is known to have solid performances against the Dolphins. He has faced the Dolphins four times as a starter and has a 3-1 record. More importantly, in Buffalo's current three-game winning streak against Miami, Allen has completed 54 of 85 passes for 682 passing yards with a completion percentage of 63.5 percent. He has totaled 11 touchdowns in those games - including three rushing touchdowns. In those three wins, the QB has averaged 61 rushing yards a game. As ESPN's Matthew Berry noted, Allen averages 31.1 points per game in his career against Miami. The Dolphins had the league's worst scoring defense in 2019 by allowing 30.9 points per game. Their overall defense ranked 30th allowing an average of 397.8 yards a game. Perhaps most pertinent, Miami lost to New England in Week 1 and allowed a league high 217 rushing yards, 75 of which came from Cam Newton. The Dolphins know what to expect. "Obviously Josh Allen is big, strong, fast," Dolphins head coach Brian Flores said. "He had something like 60 yards rushing yesterday. Some similarities to what we saw (from New England). Obviously we're trying to get a lot of that fixed now -- from an edge-setting standpoint, from a tackling standpoint -- schematically. We'll work on that over the course of the week, just from a technique, fundamentals and practice standpoint. Hopefully it helps us on Sunday." I don't think it will. Adding to the good vibes here? Surprisingly low ownership percentages on both the major platforms (check out our exclusive Ownership Percentages page for the latest on that).
Anthony Miller, WR, Chicago Bears ($5,200 on DraftKings; $5,700 on FanDuel)
Miller is a player on the rise. He finished with four catches for 76 yards and one touchdown against the Lions. Last season, it took Miller four weeks to record four catches and five weeks to record as many receiving yards. Injuries and inconsistency plagued Miller's second season. He appears to be on track now. And this week's matchup should work in his favor. While he believes a matchup against Giants shadow corner James Bradberry is good news for Allen Robinson this weekend (Bradberry struggled against Pittsburgh's perimeter receivers on Monday), ESPN's Mike Clay points out the Giants also struggled against the slot in Week 1, so Miller is a sneaky bet against fourth-round rookie Darnay Holmes. ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft added to that by noting the Giants afforded slot receivers the fourth-most total PPR fantasy points last season (256.7), and the fourth-most in Week 1 (29.8), in large part because Holmes and Isaac Yiadom couldn't rein in JuJu Smith-Schuster. Miller ran 17 of his 19 Week 1 routes out of the slot after running 79.8 percent of his total routes from 2019 from that alignment. Momentum, matchup and reasonable pricing? Works for me.
Logan Thomas, TE, Washington Football Team ($4,700 on DraftKings; $3,600 on FanDuel)
As NFL.com's Cynthia Frelund noted this week, Thomas, who was on the field for 52 snaps, led Washington in Week 1 targets (eight) and his rapport with QB Dwayne Haskins will be key against Arizona in another game that figures to include a lot of passes. In terms of air yards, Thomas was third among all tight ends in Week 1 at 76, per Pro Football Focus. His 31 routes run were sixth among all tight ends as well. According to ESPN.com's Al Zeidenfeld, elite tight ends are out in the route at least 75 percent of the time; Thomas ran routes on 77 percent of Haskins' attempts last Sunday. This week, he goes up against a Cardinals defense that allowed the all-time most fantasy points to tight ends in 2019. As FantasyPros' Mike Tagliere pointed out, there were 13 tight ends who finished top-10 against them. On the season, they allowed 311.3 PPR points to the position while no other team in the league allowed more than 242.9 points. The Cardinals' defense has been the most generous when it comes to touchdowns surrendered to tight ends since 2019 (16 allowed, most in NFL). Yes, Arizona safety Budda Baker and rookie linebacker Isaiah Simmons will present more of a challenge than we've seen from the Cardinals in the past. But given his workload, price and low ownership, Thomas is a reasonable dart toss here.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Football Team ($5,900 on DraftKings; $6,500 on FanDuel)
You'll find I often pay attention to the matchups. That's even more so when it comes to picking the player I'm "out" on. And it's no surprise that when you're a team's top downfield option, you're going to draw their top coverage. Welcome to McLaurin's world. Scary Terry had to deal with Darius Slay last week and will now deal with Patrick Peterson this week. In their matchup against the 49ers, Peterson didn't allow a single catch on the three targets he saw in coverage -- albeit against a pretty mundane group of San Francisco wideouts. Still, it's fair to say Peterson remains one of the NFL's top cover corners. I will readily concede that it's not unusual for a top receiver to get the job done against tough coverage. One reason? As Tagliere put it, "One of the benefits of being a team's No. 1 receiver is that you'll get targeted the most." How has McLaurin's target share been lately? As Berry pointed out, not great. Since Week 3 of 2019, he only has more than seven targets in a game on two occasions. He also has scored just two touchdowns in his past 10 games. Despite all the drawbacks, McLaurin's ownership percentage is high. I'll let those other folks deal with that. I'll look elsewhere. ... Like at Thomas.