DFS Three And Out 2016 week 19

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm in:

LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots
First of all, it should be noted that Blount sat out Wednesday and Thursday due to illness. Players rarely miss games due to illness, so I'm working under the assumption he'll be fine come Saturday. If that's the case, this seems like a game in which game script could work in his factor. While relying on anticipated game flow can be an issue with this coaching staff, it's worth noting the Texans defense ranks fifth against the pass but 17th against the run. However the early part of the game plays out, as ESPN.com suggested, it's hard to see Houston scoring sufficient points to match the Patriots Tom Brady-led offense. This should lead to plenty of Blount carries in the second half, and he's still a great option in the red zone. As Profootballtalk.com reminded readers, Blount had 1,161 of the Patriots’ 1,872 rushing yards during the regular season, and 18 of the Patriots’ 19 rushing touchdowns during the regular season. In addition, two of Blount’s best career games were in the playoffs: He had 166 yards and four touchdowns in a playoff game three years ago, and 148 yards and three touchdowns in a playoff game two years ago, both wins over the Colts. The Patriots would love to see Blount have that kind of production this weekend against the Texans. So will I, especially given his price this week ($5,800 on DraftKings and $7,300 on FanDuel).

Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys
We all remember the catch/no-catch that ended the 2014 playoff game between these two teams, a loss at Green Bay. That was the last time we saw Bryant go up against the Packers because he didn't play in the Cowboys' Week 6 win at Green Bay earlier in the season. But in the last regular-season meeting between these two teams, Week 15 of the 2013 season, Bryant pulled in 11 of 17 targets for 153 yards and a touchdown. In addition, as ESPN.com reminded readers, the last time we saw Bryant in a full game this season, he caught two touchdowns and threw one more against Detroit in Week 16. He's also had at least 70 receiving yards in eight of his 12 full games and is set to be the top target against a Packers defense that ranks 28th in the NFL against No. 1 wide receivers even after Odell Beckham came up small last weekend thanks to a number of dropped passes. Dez ($6,600 on DraftKings and $7,300 on FanDuel) will make those catches. Assuming they official rule them as such.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Despite his limited playing time, Hill has been a player I rode down the stretch in the regular season and I'm eager to toss him back into the fray this week playing at home against the Steelers. Hill played just 18 offensive snaps when these two teams met in October but he scored a touchdown with the Chiefs behind 36-0 in the blowout loss in Pittsburgh. But as the Sports Xchange suggested this week, the Steelers certainly have to realize Hill will be a much bigger force this weekend. In addition to leading the NFL with a 15.3-yard average return on punts, Hill's workload and production have increased noticeably. In the Chiefs' last three games, he ran the ball 10 times on offense, picking up 178 yards on touchdown runs of 68 and 70 yards. He was targeted 15 times in the passing game, but caught just five passes for 46 yards. Still, his speed sets Hill apart and makes him a threat to score on every touch -- as evidenced by his nine touchdowns from scrimmage and three more as a returner. As ESPN.com pointed out, he has had games where he caught nine and 10 passes, but he has also had a 68-yard rushing touchdown and rushed for 95 yards against Denver in Week 16. In the final regular season accounting, Hill participated in 418 offensive plays or 41 percent of the snaps with 85 touches. That he finished fourth in the entire NFL in all-purpose yards this season despite having almost 200 less touches than the top three that were ahead of him is further indication of just how explosive he is every time he touches the ball. Hill's price ($5,500 on DraftKings and $6,600 on FanDuel) is right for tournament play -- although Jordy Nelson's likely absence in Green Bay makes Randall Cobb a similarly-priced option worth noting.

I'm Out

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
I'll be the first to admit this isn't as daunting a matchup as we might expect -- generally speaking. As the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette notes, the Chiefs are a rather pedestrian defense when it comes to yards allowed. They are 24th in the NFL in total defense -- 26th in rush defense and 18th in pass defense. But Kansas City is still viewed as one of the top defensive units in the league because they created more turnovers (33) than any other team during the regular season and they were a top-five red zone defense. Yes, the Steelers had no problem scoring in their 43-14 home win over the Chiefs in Week 5. In that game, Pittsburgh did not turn the ball over, and they scored three times from inside the red zone. Repeating that output this weekend, however, seems unlikely. Yes, the Steelers were 12th in the NFL in red-zone efficiency, scoring touchdowns on 59.6 percent of their trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. But, their home/road splits in the red zone were stark. The Steelers were second in red-zone efficiency in home games and they were 27th on the road. Over the course of the 2016 season Big Ben averaged 17.8 fantasy points per game on the road; he averaged 28.1 fantasy points per game at home. Even though his price tag is out of hand ($6,500 on DraftKings and $8,100 on FanDuel), I'm looking elsewhere at this spot.