DFS Three And Out 2016 week 15

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm in:

Trevor Siemian, QB, Denver Broncos
Don't look now, but Siemian hasn't thrown an interception since the Broncos returned from their Week 11 bye, and has back-to-back 300-yard games in his two starts that bracketed a game he missed because of a sprained left foot. It's easy to overlook his big numbers because the Broncos still lost those games. But it goes beyond that. As Associated Press sports writer Arnie Stapleton pointed out this week, in his last five starts, Siemian has averaged 303.8 yards passing with eight touchdowns and four interceptions behind a line that's surrendered 17 sacks and a ground game that's managed just 2.7 yards per carry. This week, he'll be taking on one of the league's most successful teams and it's safe to assume he won't be high on the DFS radar. And while the Patriots defense ranks second against the run, the Patriots rank 27th against the pass. The Broncos are a two-man passing attack in Demaryius Thomas and Emanuel Sanders, with a big drop off in production after those two 75-plus catch playmakers, but they've been more than enough for Siemian to get the job done. But the good news? Siemian ($5,200 on DraftKings, $6,600 on FanDuel) ranks well outside the top 20 in price on both the major sites. Enjoy the savings as you pay up at other positions.

Kenneth Dixon, RB, Baltimore Ravens
As ESPN's Mike Clay pointed out this week, Dixon appears to have taken over as the Ravens' clear lead back. Clay went on to remind readers the rookie was on the field for 42 of Baltimore's 70 offensive snaps against New England on Monday. He was limited to 39 yards on 11 carries but posted eight receptions, 42 yards and a score on a team-high 11 targets. Terrance West, meanwhile, managed only two carries and four targets for a total of 26 yards over 14 snaps. Will that continue? With Dixon the better receiver of the two, that seems likely as Baltimore has struggled to find any semblance of balance on offense. Joe Flacco has attempted 554 passes this season, while the Ravens have run the ball just 301 times. With Dixon starting to show some spark, he could get more opportunities against the Eagles, who are allowing 101.4 yards per game on the ground. Better still, as ESPN's Al Zeidenfeld noted, Philadelphia's defense has allowed 5.25 catches per game and 127.75 scrimmage yards to running backs over the last four games. Even more better still (that's a lot of better), the price ($3,800 on DraftKings, $5,100 on FanDuel) is right. In fact, it's downright irresistible on DraftKings.

Marqise Lee, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Don't look now, but Lee, a second-round draft pick out of UCLA in 2014, is finally turning into the guy the Jaguar expected him to be before injuries curtailed his first two seasons in the NFL. How big a shift are we seeing? Since his lone 100-yard game of the season against Houston in Week 11, everybody's pre-season darling, Allen Robinson, has nine receptions for 90 yards. Lee, meanwhile, has emerged as the Jaguars’ best offensive player with 16 receptions for 236 yards and two touchdowns in those last four games. As for the matchup this week, Daniel Kelley laid it out in the Washington Post: Before the Texans’ Week 9 bye, they had allowed four touchdowns to wide receivers all season and not even 15 fantasy points a game to the position. In the five games since, wideouts have put up seven touchdowns and 23.2 fantasy points a game. Houston's best cover man, A.J. Bouye, Profootballfocus.com’s third-ranked cornerback this season, lines up opposite where Jacksonville uses Robinson most of the time. That means Lee -- with six-plus targets in 11 of his last 12 games this season and a touchdown and/or 100 yards in three of his last four -- stands to benefit. And Lee ($4,000 on DraftKings, $5,700 on FanDuel) is still cheaper on both the major sites than his less-productive teammate Robinson ($4,400 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel). Help yourself!

I'm Out

Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
As ESPN.com's Michael Rothstein noted this week, Stafford is enjoying a standout season. He has thrown 22 touchdown passes and just seven interceptions. Except none of those 22 touchdown passes came after injuring his finger in Sunday's 20-17 victory against Chicago. Going up against the Giants this week, Stafford will be wearing a glove to protect that injured finger and while reports indicate he's thrown the ball well so far during practices this week, the forecast calls for rain and temperatures as unseasonably high as 58 degrees in the morning before dipping into the 40s, according to Weather.com. Chance of precipitation is 100 percent with winds expected to be 10-20 miles per hour. Remember: Stafford had issues last week with velocity and grip, and that was with optimal conditions in a dome. This week could be even more challenging. The Giants are coming off a Week 14 win in which they held the Cowboys to season lows of seven points and 260 total yards. In particular, their secondary has been playing lights-out with Janoris Jenkins, Eli Apple, cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Landon Collins having outstanding seasons. Given the circumstances -- and the price ($6,300 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel), I'll look elsewhere. Heck, I might even use the saving from rolling out Dixon and Lee to pay up for Matt Ryan ($7,300 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel) or other similarly pricey guys with great matchups.