DFS Hunter Report Week 11 2018

By Dave Hunter
Dave Hunter

Well, it was another close call coming up short of my 200-point lineup goal on DraftKings. I hit 170.16, which isn't bad as I was in the Top 10 percent out of almost 500K entries, which cashed me in my tournament lineups. So, I guess I'll say "Woo-Hoo". I still missed the glory of being a Top-5 percenter, which is certainly a pat-on-the-back feat in the DFS world.



This was my "almost" lineup from Week 10:



QB - Philip Rivers - 16.02

RB - Melvin Gordon - 27.50

RB - Aaron Jones - 35.20

WR - Tyler Boyd - 9.50

WR - Julian Edelman - 22.64

WR - Dede Westbrook - 9.30

TE - Eric Ebron - 28.10

FLEX - John Ross - 11.90

DST - Chiefs - 10



Total - 170.16



I really thought my all-in Cincinnati receiver plan would've paid off. It was sad to see the Bengals get spanked, as it really affected my lineup. I've also got to stop coming up short at QB each week.



To Week 11 we shall go!



As I mention every week, I'll be basing my weekly write-ups off DraftKings salaries, keeping in mind all suggestions are not equal and some players I like more for tournament or cash lineup builds over others.




 

QUARTERBACK

 


Top Level



Carson Wentz, PHI @ New Orleans Saints ($6,300) - If you want 25 fantasy points from your QB slot, Wentz is your guy. He's been incredibly consistent since he returned to action in Week 3, giving DFS owners around 25 points each week. You gotta love the matchup too, right? At the beginning of the season there was thought these two clubs could be fighting it out in the NFL championship game, although the Eagles have certainly struggled at times. There's still a good chance the Eagles straighten out. I expect a shootout in this one, with Wentz and Drew Brees tossing plenty of TD passes. So, go ahead, load up on Wentz.



Other Choices:  Drew Brees, NO vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($6,500); Deshaun Watson, HOU @ Washington Redskins ($5,700)



Value



Dak Prescott, DAL @ Atlanta Falcons ($5,200) - I admit, going with Prescott is purely a matchup play for me. The Falcons have given up 21 passing TDs this season, and with Amari Cooper playing for Dallas now the Cowboys have a passing game again. The Falcons are awful in the secondary, and while Prescott represents risk the salary is worth it overall. Can you see it? Prescott throws for 3 TDs and 300-plus yards! Well, probably not. Still, I'd be happy with 250 yards and 2 TD in a cash game set up. You'll have maneuverability at RB and WR, spending up due to the savings at QB. Feel free to use Prescott in tournament play, with the outside chance he'll go nutty and that most will stay away.



Other Choices: Marcus Mariota, TEN @ Indianapolis Colts ($5,400); Eli Manning, NYG vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,200); Andy Dalton, CIN @ Baltimore Ravens ($5,000)



Over-Value



Matthew Stafford, DET @ Indianapolis Colts ($5,400) - With Stafford struggling, there's no reason to lay down $5.4K when there are others on the books with sexier matchups and better dollar-to-value pricing. One of the biggest disappointments of the year, Stafford may be due for a boom game - just don't expect it. Move along.



Other Choices: Cam Newton, CAR @ Detroit Lions ($6,200)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RUNNING BACK

 


Top Level



David Johnson, ARI vs. Oakland Raiders ($7,500) - Last week Johnson made me look bad. I listed him as an Over-Value option and he exploded for 37.3 points. Now I have him here, in my favorite Top Level slot due to the price, which I actually consider a slight value facing the Raiders. DJ will be able to exploit a Raiders rush defense that's allowed almost 500 yards and three TDs over their last three games played. DJ may gain added exposure with last week's play, although it won't be enough that you shouldn't own him in cash leagues. I'd roster him in tournament play too.



Other Choices: Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($8,700); Ezekiel Elliott, DAL @ Atlanta Falcons ($8,500); Alvin Kamara, NO vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($8,200); Christian McCaffery, CAR @ Detroit Lions ($8,000)



Value



Dion Lewis, TEN @ Indianapolis Colts ($4,800) - Derrick Henry finally showed up for fantasy owners last week as he scored twice for the Titans. What about this week? Give me Lewis. He's out-touching Henry overall and is the main back out of the backfield when it comes to the passing game. The under-$5K price is hugely attractive for owners that are seeking value at RB and don't want to spend big bucks. I'll have a lineup with Lewis and one of the above Top-Level options, but there plenty of good-value RB options this week.



Other Choices: Lamar Miller, HOU @ Washington Redskins ($4,500); Alex Collins, BAL vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($4,400); Doug Martin, OAK @ Arizona Cardinals ($4,500); Theo Riddick, DET vs. Carolina Panthers ($4,000); Ito Smith, ATL vs. Dallas Cowboys ($3,600)



Over-Value



Melvin Gordon, LAC vs. Denver Broncos ($8,900) - Gordon really isn't too much of an Over-Value play, although I'm having a difficult time pulling the trigger at this price tag. Sure, he's been money for DFS owners, and he'll likely give you 25 fantasy points, but you can spend less this week on a guy like Christian McCaffery or David Johnson and get similar output. 



Other Choices: James Conner, PIT @ Jacksonville Jaguars ($7,200)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIDE RECEIVER

 


Top Level



Odell Beckham, Jr., NYG vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($8,400) - Didn't Beckham look great on Monday Night Football? Maybe I'm just geeked over Eli Manning finally connecting with Beckham on a consistent basis. This will be a high scoring game, with Vegas having the over/under at 52, the second highest total in this slate of games. I'm betting the over with Beckham having a big chunk of the action, so be sure to get your shares. Just so you're informed, the Bucs are allowing 292 yards a game through the air and have given up the most TDs with 23. Man, it makes me want to load up a lineup with Bucs and Giants.



Other Choices: Michael Thomas, NO vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($8,800); DeAndre Hopkins, HOU @ Washington Redskins ($7,900); Mike Evans, TB @ New York Giants ($7,300)



Value



Michael Crabtree, BAL vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($4,800) - Crabtree sees plenty of targets each game, he just isn't converting them as often as we want to see. In a tight divisional game, the Ravens will need Crabtree to work over a Bengals secondary that has been suffering of late with 4 TDs allowed over the last two games played. Crabtree still has game left in him and I like him to find the end zone and net about 80 yards with 5 catches. Now, that's worth $4.8K!



Other Choices: Alshon Jeffery, PHI @ New Orleans Saints ($6,300); Corey Davis, TEN @ Indianapolis Colts ($5,600); Amari Cooper, OAK @ Atlanta Falcons ($5,400); Devin Funchess, CAR @ Detroit Lions ($5,100); Demaryius Thomas, HOU @ Washington Redskins ($4,900)



Over-Value



JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT @ Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,800) - Smith-Schuster is an exciting player, no doubt about that, but the matchup is about as tough as it gets facing the Jags secondary. Plus, there's been a lack of TD scores from Smith-Schuster, and we know why that is with Mr. Antonio Brown on the field. I don't see JuJu hitting value at $6.8K. 



Other Choices: A.J. Green, CIN @ Baltimore Ravens ($7,500)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TIGHT END

 


Top Level



Zach Ertz, PHI @ New Orleans Saints ($6,600)



Value



Austin Hooper, ATL @ Cleveland Browns ($4,500)



Evan Engram, NYG vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,100)



Ricky Seals-Jones, ARI vs. Oakland Raiders ($2,900)



Over-Value



Greg Olsen, CAR @ Detroit Lions ($5,000)






Good luck in Week 11! Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy