DFS GPP STACKS WEEK 17 2021

DRAFTKINGS DFS GPP STACKS TO TARGET - WEEK 17


The cash article is up already at www.footballdiehards.com, and we have a ripe 14-game slate set for stacking!  There are a few hot targets to look at, so let’s jump right in.  As always, be sure to tune in on Sunday morning at 10 AM EST as we do our Gameday breakdown!
 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (KC -5, O/U 51)

CHIEFS

We’ll start with the highest O/U on the slate at 51 points, and also a game that projects to be super high pace and pass-heavy (both of these teams are top five in the NFL in pass rate over expectation.  Patrick Mahomes will have Travis Kelce back and also a full week of practice with Tyreek Hill (which he didn’t have last week).  The Bengals are eighth in the NFL in pressure rate but they’ve also allowed the tenth most FPPG to QBs and the fifth most FPPG to TEs, so a Mahomes/Hill/Kelce stack makes a lot of sense here.  An additional sneaky piece is to include Darrel Williams (provided Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out) who had a 17% target share when CEH was out the first time.  The Bengals have allowed the second most receptions and the fourth most receiving yards to opposing RBs.


BENGALS
I imagine the Bengals’ offense will not be sneaky this week after Joe Burrow put up 525 yards against the Ravens last week, with both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins having solid games (Higgins was the WR1 for the week).  It’s a middling matchup against the Chiefs’ defense that has really picked it up in the second half of the season, but Chase and Higgins are in essence both WR1s on that squad, and defenses cannot commit to shutting just one down.  Either can be used as a bringback to Chiefs stacks, or doubled together with Burrow (even though his price spiked by $1000).


Joe Mixon has not had less than 18 touches since week 7, and continues to be one of few workhorse backs in the NFL despite running at a very inefficient 3.3 YPC over the past four games.  As long as the Bengals keep up in this one, Mixon should be used early and often, and the Chiefs have allowed the tenth most FPPG to opposing RBs.


STACK IDEAS
Mahomes/Kelce/Hill w/ Chase or Higgins
Mahomes/Kelce/Hill w/ Mixon
Mahomes/Kelce/D. Williams (or CEH) w/ Chase or Higgins


Burrow/Chase/Higgins w/ Kelce 
Burrow/Chase/Higgins w/ D. Williams (or CEH)

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (LAR -5.5, O/U 46)

RAMS
I’m incredibly excited to use the Rams offense after seeing what Joe Burrow and company did to this Ravens defense (525 yards passing, monster games from Chase and Tee Higgins).  Even with Sony Michel bursting into relevance as the season has gone on, the Rams are still fourth in the NFL in pass rate over expectation, and are fully healthy in the passing game.  Baltimore has now allowed the second most FPPG to QBs, the second highest YPA, the fifth most FPPG to WRs, and the most completions over 20 yards, 30 yards, and 40 yards.  Stafford and Kupp is a given in stacks, and mixing and matching Odell Beckham, Van Jefferson, and Tyler Higbee all make sense in stacks.  I prefer Odell to any of the rest as the most likely to catch a deep TD (or two).



Sony Michel is more a cash game or one-off play than a part of the stack, but I still have to point out that his workload should be as secure as anyone’s this week.  Darrell Henderson is on IR, and I highly doubt Cam Akers is going to make any sort of significant impact since it’s only been five months since he tore his Achilles.  Michel has 23.75 touches per game over the past four contests, which seems like an easy floor for him again with no real backfield competition.


RAVENS
I don’t care who starts at QB for the Ravens - the bringback is Mark Andrews and really no one else.  Andrews is in “Cooper Kupp status” over his last three games with 33.2 DK PPG scored and 34 targets from Tyler Huntley.  My only concern with Andrews is that the Rams put Jalen Ramsey on him, because…why wouldn’t they?  He shadows, so it would be easy to use him to eliminate the Ravens’ only real offensive threat, but Andrews is still very playable in stacks.


STACK IDEAS
Stafford/Kupp/Odell w/ Andrews
Stafford/Kupp/Odell, Jefferson, or Higbee w/ no BAL bringback

ATLANTA FALCONS AT BUFFALO BILLS (BUF -14, O/U 43)

BILLS
This is more a one-sided stack as well, but the Bills couldn’t find themselves in a much better spot as they face a Falcons team that is last in sack rate and pressure rate and 30th in QB hit rate.  Under the new COVID rules, Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis will return, and it looks like Emmanuel Sanders may sit this one out.  Stefon Diggs is worth every penny, and Gabriel Davis would absolutely warrant GPP gold at $5000.  Cole Beasley I’m a little less enthused about as Isaiah McKenzie went off for 11/125/1 in his absence, so I have to wonder if his electric play has earned him more snaps.  Dawson Knox is actually my next favorite piece here after Diggs, as he’s played 91% of snaps over the past five weeks and is currently in a three-way tie for the most RZ targets among all TEs (he’s tied with Friermuth and my boy Cameron Brate).  


Devin Singetary has been mostly an avoid for me this year in DFS, but he’s logged 51 touches over the last three weeks and would seem to be in line for at least that with the Bills favored by two touchdowns.


FALCONS
A runback is not necessary from the Falcons, as Matt Ryan has 4 TD passes over his last seven games, and the Bills have given up the fewest FPPG to the position.  If anyone is used, it would be the versatile Cordarelle Patterson as the Bills have given up the second most FPPG to RBs in the month of December, and Patterson is involved in the passing game as well.


STACK IDEAS
Allen/Diggs/Knox w/ Patterson
Allen/Diggs/Davis w/ no ATL bringback
Allen/Diggs/Knox/Singletary/Buffalo DST