The Waiver Wire Wizard Week 16 2021

I think that it goes without saying that Week 15 was a dud. Not even your average, run-of-the-mill dud, but we are talking a full fledged "this won't go down the toilet after the first flush so it needs another two or three tries" type of dud. Like many of you, I suffered the wrath of the Fantasy gods this past weekend, and I was let down horribly by a number of superstars that just refused to produce points, either from lack of usage, poor game scripts or our old friend, COVID-19.

To be honest, I was hoping and praying that I wouldn't have to write a column dedicated to this ongoing pandemic. I was optimistic that the playoffs wouldn't be completely derailed by the "Omicron" variant that is spreading like wildfire in the United States. Sadly, I was mistaken.

Throughout the season, I thought that the NFL and each team's medical staff did an admirable job of keeping the situation at bay - tracking positives when they came in and attempting to prevent spread within the lock rooms. To give everyone credit, by and large there were few major issues during the season itself. Sure, a superstar might miss one week after testing positive but (thankfully) protocols allowed teams to function as normal as possible.

Until a week ago.

A sad reality is that COVID-19, much like the seasonal flu, tends to be much more prevalent around the holidays. With the majority of folks attempting to spend time with their loved ones, travel and contact increases, and therefore so does the opportunity for spread. Even though it started with just one or two players, entire teams (Cleveland Browns, Washington Football Team, Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Chargers, New York Giants, etc.) were quickly decimated, forcing emergency procedures to be enacted and ultimately games to be shifted. It seemed that every morning a bevy of top-tier talent was added, until we finally reached a breaking point.

Thankfully for Fantasy players, the NFL decided to enact new protocols that make the transition from a positive test back to playing on the field a more streamlined process. This allowed for several previously vaccinated players, such as Odell Beckham Jr., to have one negative test and be allowed to play. Yet, as the process changes and we creep ever closer to Christmas and New Years, more impactful players are sure to be sidelined with the virus. And there is no silver lining regarding that - it stinks. It is unfortunate that the hobby we play that relies heavily upon statistics and probability is thrown upside down because of something that we can't even see. Log in to Facebook, Twitter or Instagram - Fantasy enthusiasts are livid. And I don't blame them.

Navigating through injuries, opposing defenses, waiver wire pickups and the COVID-19 situation is a daunting task. But try to remember that we play this game for fun. Is it infuriating when players come up short in the playoffs? Absolutely. You're reading commentary from someone who was heavily reliant upon Kyler Murray, Joe Mixon and Diontae Johnson to bring home the bacon, after all. That said? Enjoy football. Enjoy the insanity that is the NFL. Field the best team that you are capable with the hand that you are dealt. And, although it is easier said than done, remember that the players who test positive or come up short on the gridiron are still human. They get upset and dismayed, just like the rest of us. Too often we treat a player like a walking set of statistics, rather than attempt to understand what they are going through, especially when it comes to this virus. Hopefully better days are ahead.

Before I dive into my waiver wire recommendations, I did want to wish all of my readers a very Happy Holiday season. Whatever you choose to celebrate and whoever you chose to celebrate it with, I hope that you are happy, safe, and above all else - healthy! Be careful out there!
 

Quarterback

You're going to start to see a theme early and often as I go through each player section, with household names coming up very short of their projections, while backups went bananas. Who was the QB1 in Week 15? Surely it had to be Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers or Josh Allen, right? Wrong. Tyler Huntley. Baltimore's backup went utterly ballistic against Green Bay on Sunday, completing 28-of-40 pass attempts for 215 yards and two touchdowns, while running for another 73 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. This was the second week in a row that Huntley has really opened my eyes. Of the three games that he has played the majority of snaps this season (Weeks 11, 14 and 15), he has averaged a 71 percent completion rate and rushed for at least 40 yards - and has kept Baltimore competitive each time. Essentially, Huntley is Lamar Jackson-light. He isn't quite as elusive, but he is a Fantasy dynamo. If Jackson (ankle) were to miss another week, Huntley is in for a smash matchup against Cincinnati to keep the Ravens playoff hopes alive.

Mac Jones will likely finish the season as the top-rated rookie quarterback, but Davis Mills will not be far behind. Forced into action earlier this season due to a Tyrod Taylor injury, Houston has made the decision to stick with Mills for the remainder of 2021 to see what they have. Despite their starting roster being utterly bereft of talent, Mills has posted back-end QB1 numbers a few times this year. He has an obvious rapport with Brandin Cooks, and Mills isn't afraid to check down to his running backs should the situation present itself. I don't view him as a starter for the remainder of 2021 in anything other than 2QB leagues, but depending on what personnel decisions the Texans make in the offseason, Mills could gain momentum for 2022. Houston currently is in-line for the third selection in the draft.

Running Back

Miami was another team that was decimated by COVID-19 earlier in the week, forcing both of their top options at running back to enter protocol (Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed). Although Gaskin was able to be activated in time for the game, it was Duke Johnson who came away with the majority of carries and work, and he responded by having the best game of his career. Known primarily during his career for his work on third-down as a receiver, Johnson ran for 107 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries. His elite production led to the team formally promoting him to their active roster for the remainder of the year, and it puts him in the mix to inherit the starting role moving forward. Gaskin is one of the least efficient runners in the league (just 3.5 YPC) and he is currently on very shaky ground. Johnson is currently rostered in 0.6 percent of ESPN leagues.

I won't expound on him at length, but it was good to see James Robinson free of Urban Meyer's shackles, as Jacksonville finally came to their senses and terminated their head coach. Good riddance!

Ameer Abdullah is currently within the top-10 scorers at the position, due to his status as Carolina's top receiving threat out of the backfield. In the absence of Christian McCaffrey, Chuba Hubbard has operated as the early-down option with Abdullah seeing snaps on third-downs and in passing situations. Carolina looks to be behind in each of the next three games during the regular season (Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Tampa Bay), which will favor Abdullah. He was mentioned in this column a number of weeks ago, but he is rostered in just seven percent of leagues. He remains a mid-range PPR flex.

Adam Schefter raised my eyebrows in Week 14 when he recommended adding Craig Reynolds of the Detroit Lions, with Jamaal Williams on the COVID-19 list and Jermar Jefferson being a less-than-inspiring alternative. True to form, Reynolds finished with 13 touches and 99 total yards in Week 14, then followed that up with a 27 touch, 117 performance against Arizona on Sunday. It is anyone's best guess if D'Andre Swift will grace us with his presence again this year - he was expected to return several weeks ago from a sprained AC joint in his shoulder. Williams remains on the COVID-19 list, leaving Reynolds as the go-to option for the Lions. I'd expect him to dominate touches again out of the backfield if Williams lingers on the protocol - Reynolds is my top recommendation of the week.

One other player that I wanted to touch on briefly before we continue - how about the job that D'Onta Foreman has done in Tennessee since Derrick Henry went down! Foreman rushed for 108 yards on 22 carries on Sunday, averaging nearly 5 YPC. Yes, Pittsburgh has been horrible against the run this season, but T.J. Watt was back in this game and had a major impact. Foreman definitely won't supplant Henry any time soon, but as he is just 25 years old, it will be interesting to see what sort of market he will have in free agency for 2022.

Wide Receiver

Perhaps the top headline that summarized Week 15, the Arizona Cardinals fell flat on their faces and were beaten senseless by the Detroit Lions. Arizona is expected to be without their top receiving threat DeAndre Hopkins for the rest of the season, and many analysts (myself included) assumed that the team would pivot to A.J. Green as their outside option. Wrong. Christian Kirk led the team in targets (12), receptions (9) and receiving yards (94), and managed to score the team's lone touchdown. I made the comment on Twitter earlier, and I'll happily stand by it - after watching him play more closely, A.J. Green is a horribly sloppy route runner that has zero interest fighting for contested catches. It is clear that Kyler Murray has a connection with Kirk, who should be viewed as a mid-range WR2 moving forward into the playoffs.

Amon-Ra St. Brown was a popular add entering the week, and he delivered on the billing. For the third consecutive week, St. Brown caught at least 8 passes, drew at least 11 targets, and broke the 70-yard mark. The absence of both D'Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson has opened a massive number of targets for the remaining options in Detroit, allowing both St. Brown and Josh Reynolds to thrive. St. Brown is more of a volume-based play that is a must-add in PPR leagues, with Reynolds opening things up on the perimeter. Both options make for excellent pickups, and are widely available to add. St. Brown is currently rostered in about 25 percent of leagues, with Reynolds rostered in about 4 percent. Add them as COVID-19 insurance, if nothing else. Detroit has another juicy matchup in Week 16 with Atlanta.

Another situation where a wideout thrived as a result of players around him being injured, Gabriel Davis currently sits third amongst players at his position, following a 5/85/2 split. With Emmanuel Sanders out due to a heel injury, Davis took over the game against Carolina, wreaking havoc over the middle of the field. An excellent combination of size (6'2, 210 lbs.) and speed, the second-year receiver out of UCF has earned a role moving forward in this pass-heavy offense. Davis is another example of a hyped player coming through on a big stage. With Sanders finishing 2020 as a free agent, Davis' long-term outlook has never been brighter.

Tip of the cap to Marquez Valdes-Scantling capitalizing on a prime matchup against the dilapidated Baltimore Ravens secondary. Fantasy players knew that either "MVS" or Allen Lazard would come through in this one, but it was anyone's best guess as to who. Trying to figure out the WR2 in Green Bay is a maddening endeavor due to inconsistency and injuries - and now isn't the time to start. MVS (similar to Lazard) make for mid-range WR3 dart throws in their Week 16 matchup with Cleveland.

Tight End

Week 15 (in a nutshell) in many respects was a battle of the "have's" and "have nots" - essentially, starting player X this week won things for you, and while player Y laid a dud. Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews continue to go absolutely ballistic each week, with George Kittle, Dawson Knox and Zach Ertz presenting a solid second tier. After that, things tend to fall off of a cliff in short order. Since this is a notoriously fickle position that is touchdown-dependent, pointing out any particular player to hang one's hat upon (especially in the playoffs) is a dangerous proposition.

That said? There are two players that I'd be interested in adding if I was in a Darren Waller-less pickle. The first is James O'Shaughnessy of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who is quickly become a security blanket for Trevor Lawrence. I'll admit that I was pessimistic about "JOS" entering the week, and even went back-and-forth with several industry colleagues over his potential upside. I'm happy to be proven wrong, in this instance. JOS is a wide receiver who occasionally blocks, akin to Noah Fant. Jacksonville has a delightful Week 15 matchup against the New York Jets, who bleed Fantasy points like crazy.

Lastly, call me curious regarding Evan Engram's short-term usage. The New York Giants will be without Sterling Shepard (Achilles) for the remainder of 2021, and it appears that Jake Fromm will be the starter under center while Daniel Jones rehabs his ailing neck. Mike Glennon is utterly putrid and worthless, and the team has nowhere to go but up from here. Limited arm strength coupled with a lack of true threats will siphon targets to Engram, who remains one of the most athletically gifted at the position. The Giants face Philadelphia in Week 16, and the Eagles have surrendered the most points per game to the tight end position this year. Engram is an interesting streaming option for DFS purposes, and he may be auditioning for a new team and another contract in 2022.