The Waiver Wire Wizard Week 17 2021

By Evan Tarracciano
Evan Tarracciano

Fantasy Football is a cruel mistress that can bring managers equal parts elation and aggravation. The enticing aspect, the proverbial "carrot on a string" as it were, is the allure of winning a championship, after weeks of lineup tinkering and a fair bit of luck. After navigating through injuries, COVID-19 issues and disappointing performances for so many players, we have finally arrived at "championship weekend". Reaching the endpoint, the culmination of the season as it were, is no small feat. Just two players can claim that they made it, and akin to the cringe-worthy 1990's Monster Truck radio ads "TWO TEAMS ENTER, ONE TEAM LEAVES! TWO TEAMS ENTER, ONE TEAM LEAVES!".

I've been playing Fantasy Football for 15 years, and covering it from an analyst-standpoint for 12. I don't toss generalities around lightly, but I can say without hesitation that the 2021 season was by far the most difficult to cover, therefore reaching the playoffs (and especially the championship week) should be lauded. Well done, reader. Selfishly, I hope that my thoughts and musings each week played a small part in you reaching the finale, and my recommendations panned out.

Now that we have reached Week 17, my general thoughts and mantra remain the same - start the players that aided you in making it this far along, unless there is a certain set of circumstances that would hinder them from producing points. This seems both obvious and stupid to say, but you would be surprised the number of questions that I receive on social media each evening that leave me puzzled.

Take for instance last night's game between the New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins. A plethora of questions came in regarding Alvin Kamara - how I happened to project his evening going, and where I had him ranked in comparison to others. Already operating under the knowledge that he was taking on a very stout defense, Kamara was lowered in my rankings. Knowing that he would split total backfield touches with Mark Ingram chipped him down even further. Then came the news that BOTH Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian were placed on the COVID-19 list, forcing Ian Book to make his first start with few practice reps. Clearly things weren't shaping for this to be a monster game for Kamara, who is normally a "set it and forget it" RB1. True to form, Miami's defense honed in on Kamara every time that he touched the ball, and the Saints were unable to sustain drives due to Book's shortcomings. This wasn't a major "shock" for me per se - I expected it.

Prior to hitting "save" on Sunday morning to finalize your roster, examine each and every player on your team and attempt to predict what sort of outside, non-obvious factors could influence their output this week. Has the defense that they are facing been playing well of late? For running backs - is the entire offensive line actually playing, or is it ravaged by COVID-19 and chalk full of backup options? Is your wide receiver facing shadow coverage from a shutdown cornerback? These are just a few of the many variables to consider.

I bring up this topic because this week more than ever, Fantasy players will see/hear/read the phrase "start your studs". And I'm sure that it will be a topic of discussion. I'd amend it to "start your best players, unless they are in a difficult position to succeed". Yes, many of us are faced with rosters that are ravaged by injuries and issues - I understand. Just make sure to take the time, this week more than ever before, to analyze variables and plan accordingly. With that said, here are a few situations worth monitoring, and a few players that might crack your championship team, should the right circumstances present themselves.
 

Quarterback

San Francisco is the obvious starting point of discussion for quarterbacks. With Jimmy Garoppolo dealing with multiple injuries (torn UCL, fractured bone in his throwing hand), it appears that rookie Trey Lance is finally in line to get his first taste of action since Week 5. Unlike Garoppolo, who is a pure pocket passer, the majority of Fantasy points for Lance will come on account of his rushing ability, akin to a Taysom Hill. Lance struggled mightily in limited duties before, completing just 52 percent of his passes for 192 yards, while tossing an interception. That said? He rushed for 90 yards in that matchup, and he now faces the Houston Texans, who struggle to tackle everyone. In addition to his rushing upside, Lance is surrounded by a full complement of healthy receiving options that should utterly dominate their counterparts in this matchup - Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Lance is available in nearly 85 percent of Yahoo! leagues, and for Fantasy players who have a less than enticing scenario (take Kyler Murray vs. Dallas, as an example) - he makes for a very obvious pivot play.

Tyler Huntley of Baltimore would be the other player that should be mentioned before we proceed. Lamar Jackson continues to nurse a badly sprained ankle, putting Huntly currently in-line to start against the Los Angeles Rams next Sunday. As I've mentioned in earlier articles, Huntley has completed more than 70 percent of his pass attempts in each of his "fill-in" starts, racking up rushing yards along the way. Unlike most situations when the backup option hones in on tertiary options, Huntley continues to pepper both Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown with targets, ensuring their Fantasy floors. Baltimore will need to continue scratching and clawing their way into the playoff picture, so you'd better believe that this is an important game in the AFC North. Monitor practice reports with the Ravens to see if Huntley will be given another opportunity.

 

Running Back

The Philadelphia Eagles offensive identity experienced a midseason shift as a result of Jalen Hurts' struggles, and have operated as a run-first team that pounds their opponents into submission. Behind an offensive line that is capable of creating crater-sized holes, the Eagles have now thrust themselves back into the NFC playoff picture. Unfortunately, lead-back Miles Sanders broke his hand this past weekend, and it is almost certain that he will miss time moving forward. To complicate things, the Eagles have three competent options that can soak up his snaps - Jordan Howard, Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell. Howard sustained a stinger that forced him off of the field in Week 16, thrusting Scott into the limelight. Should Howard be able to overcome his malady, I would bank on him being the top option for this team in Week 17 (and head coach Nick Sirianni stated as much during his press conference on Monday). Philadelphia squares off against Washington in Week 17, who is still licking their wounds from getting utterly demolished by Dallas. Howard would be an immediate FLEX consideration in 12-team or larger formats.

Continuing with the "grab player X because the starter was injured in Week 16" theme, Fantasy players should also take a look at Dare Ogunbowale of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Now the lead back due to James Robinson sustaining a torn Achilles, Ogunbowale is currently in-line to see the majority of snaps in the backfield against New England in Week 17. Known primarily for his ability as a receiver, Fantasy players should anticipate at least a handful of short passes and screen to come his way, with the Jaguars likely operating in a negative game script. Tavon Austin will also see a small uptick in usage, but Ogunbowale would be the favored pickup for Fantasy purposes - especially in PPR formats.

I'll touch briefly on the backfield situation in Kansas City before moving along. Clyde Edwards-Helaire sustained a collarbone injury, and he is currently being labeled as "week to week" by the team. His immediate and direct replacement is Darrel Williams, who is already rostered in over 60 percent of leagues. Williams is an extremely talented replacement option for the Chiefs, and barring a miraculous comeback occurring, I'd anticipate him soaking up at least 70 percent of backfield touches. Keep an eye on Derrick Gore though, who has really shown flashes when given opportunities earlier this season. For DFS purposes, he's an interesting dart throw.

 

 

 

Wide Receiver

Josh Palmer is someone that I'd strongly endorse as a FLEX option in 14-team format or larger, given his immediate path to playing time thanks to both Jalen Guyton and Mike Williams being on the COVID-19 list. Palmer caught 5-of-6 targets for 43 yards and a score last week against the Houston Texans, and I'd expect him to start opposite Keenan Allen yet again. A third-round possession-based option hailing from Tennessee, Palmer is widely available as a plug-and-play option. His upcoming matchup against Denver is difficult on paper, but I anticipate the Broncos being more competitive than they showed last week. Each team is in win-or-out mode.

Isaiah McKenzie was a player that certainly caught my attention in Week 16, catching 11-of-12 targets in Buffalo's critical victory over the New England Patriots to regain control in the AFC East. Filling in as the chain-moving option for Josh Allen thanks to Cole Beasley (COVID-19) being out, McKenzie eclipsed his season-long totals in receptions and touchdowns. Ordinarily I'd be more excited to recommend adding McKenzie, but it appears that Beasley has a chance to be removed from the league's protocol prior to Week 17. Since his outcome entirely hinges upon the health status of another player, Fantasy managers should keep a close eye on practice reports. McKenzie would be a WR3 in PPR formats if Beasley was forced to sit again.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard should be discussed as a package duo, since I'm really bringing up the WR2 slot for Green Bay as a whole. As things currently stand, "MVS" is in the COVID-19 protocol, though he would be my more favored choice of the two to start. He is currently expected to clear out and start by the middle of this week, though the situation will remain fluid depending on negative tests (along with close-contact scenarios). Green Bay is set to square off against a very generous secondary in Minnesota, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the WR2 finish with top-25 numbers when things finished. If MVS is unable to clear protocols, Lazard would be the clear-cut recommendation here. I'd consider MVS to be more of the "big-play" threat of the two, with Lazard having a lower YPC.

Speaking of the Vikings, I was amazed that Adam Thielen was able to come back so quickly from his "high-ankle sprain" that he sustained in Week 13 against the Detroit Lions. Normally that variety carries with it a 4-6 week turnaround timeframe, but Thielen was able to make it back onto the field in Week 16 instead. One wonders if he pushed things too hard, since he re-aggravated the injury while making a catch close to the goal line. He was able to return to the field (somehow) and really demonstrated his toughness. I'd anticipate Thielen sitting out the beginning of practices leading up to Sunday, and his status is murky at best. If he is unable to go, K.J. Osborn would be an upside PPR FLEX stash in what projects to be a shootout against Green Bay.

 

 

 

Tight End

Anyone who has followed my Twitter account (@Roto_Wizard) knows that I've had it up to HERE with Darren Waller this season. This was the first year in recent memory that I made it a point to grab one of the top options at the position, so I wouldn't be sifting through a garbage heap each and every week. I guess everyone can figure out how that worked for me so far. Waller has been nursing an IT Band injury since Thanksgiving, which has led to Foster Moreau getting the start for Las Vegas in his absence. During the time span when Waller has been sidelined, Moreau has averaged over 6 targets per game, and played the vast majority of snaps. Early reports out of Raiders camp suggest that Waller is going to attempt to practice this week, but his status for Sunday is murky at best. If I were a betting man, I'd strongly wager against Waller suiting up in Week 17, as he appears in no rush to get back on the field without a new contract. Call it a hunch. Moreau would be my top streaming play of the week.

I'm reluctant to mention anyone else offhand here, but if you participate in an extremely deep leagues where the most obvious alternatives are scooped up, consider adding Evan Engram. My skin crawls at the thought of relying upon anyone from New York in the championships, but Engram is a player that both Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm look to in an effort to bail them out in the middle of the field. Engram has five or more targets in five of his past six weeks, and we all know that the Giants will be playing from behind in short order.

Best of luck to everyone in their finals! Send me any and all of your lineup questions to @Roto_Wizard on Twitter and I'll answer them right away. Cheers!