fantasy football rankings and notes

By Evan Tarracciano
Evan Tarracciano

One of the mantras of Football Diehards is that it is ALWAYS Fantasy Football season. Between free agent signings, the NFL Draft and trades which have occurred during the offseason, there is always plenty of news which is changing the landscape.

 

Since I began writing Fantasy content back in 2010, I’ve continually hammered home the need for players to create their own personalized set of rankings entering drafts. This not only forces the owner to take an in-depth look at each position and rank players according to their peers, but also serves as a reminder about the influx of rookie talent and movement between teams. A few weeks ago I sat down and hammered out my own set of rankings (which our subscribers can find on this website). Several things at each position stood out for me, so I wanted to take a moment to discuss them in detail below, since I’m certain that I’ll receive questions about Player A being ranked ahead of Player B in the weeks to come.

 

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) – Most media outlets had Wilson ranked at the low-end of the QB1 spectrum last season, with the assumption that he would take a small step forward as a passer, but continue to generate value mainly based upon the boost he receives rushing the ball. Funny enough, Wilson’s rushing attempts (and yards) both experienced a decline in 2015, but he still finished as a top option at the position, largely in part due to his 34:8 TD:INT ratio. The biggest question entering this season is just how much better can he be? Across the board, all of his passing statistics improved, as he set career bests in accuracy (68.1%), yards (4024), Y/G (251.5) and TDs (34). With the exception of losing Marshawn Lynch, the offense largely remains in place from last season. Jimmy Graham will be returning from a torn patellar tendon, but is expected to be ready for Week 1. Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and the explosive Tyler Lockett remain in place around Wilson as options. While his wideout talent isn’t elite (similar to Cam Newton), Wilson’s ability to limit mistakes and provide consistent points places him firmly inside my top 5 this year.

 

Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys) – Ever the eternal optimist, Romo recently stated in an interview that he believes he could play for another four or five seasons. All facts point to otherwise, as he enters 2016 at 36 years old, and hasn’t appeared in all 16 games since 2012. His recent collarbone issues limited him to just four starts last year, and the team selected Dak Prescott in the draft (after clearly stating that they wanted to address the QB position earlier, but missed out on Paxton Lynch). While the Cowboys still have an elite offensive line capable of protecting Romo, I’m just not convinced that he’s capable of taking major hits at this point. Owners could see him shy away from contact upon his return, and rather than extend plays and try to be the proverbial “gunslinger” which we’ve seen in the past, he preferred to throw the ball away or fall down and take a sack. The team failed to address the WR2 position, so Terrance Williams will still see every down snaps opposite Dez Bryant. Jason Witten remains, but his best days are also far behind him. I have Romo ranked 16th this season, behind Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota.

 

Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions) – Some wondered how far down Stafford would fall in my lists with Calvin Johnson’s retirement, despite his amazing second half of 2015. Currently I have him ranked 18th, just behind Andy Dalton and Kirk Cousins. While Golden Tate is an above average talent who produced gaudy statistics while Johnson was out during stretches over the last two seasons, I don’t view him as a legit WR1.His physical skillset is also completely different than Johnsons, as he isn’t going to routinely win jump-ball matchups, and he isn’t nearly the same threat in the red zone. I do like the addition of Marvin Jones, and anticipate Eric Ebron taking another step forward in his development this year. All that being said, expect this offense to focus upon short to intermediate passes which emphasize accuracy rather than distance. Stafford will see plenty of dump-offs to Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick again. The lack of a ground game will allow Stafford to reach the 4,000 yard mark for the sixth consecutive season, but expect his TD totals to be much closer to 2014 (22) than 2015 (32).

 

Running Backs

David Johnson (Arizona Cardinals) – I’ve spoken with plenty of colleagues regarding the top RB this year, and the debate usually centers around Le’Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson or Johnson. Johnson has several factors working in his favor, such as age (24), health, talent, and perhaps most importantly – the confidence of Bruce Arians. When you consider how dominant he was last season in limited time, his upside is scary. Johnson didn’t receive more than 8 rushing attempts until Week 13 against the Los Angeles Rams, but still finished with 581 rushing yards and averaged 4.6 per carry, including eight touchdowns. The youngster from Northern Iowa also has incredibly soft hands, and will catch at least 55-60 passes over a full season. Barring an injury, Johnson will have a monster 2016.

 

Mark Ingram (New Orleans Saints) – Ingram being ranked seventh on my board will come as little surprise to anyone who has followed my work for an extended period of time. Simply put – when the Saints feed Ingram the ball, he produces and they win. They finally realized that he deserved to be the “bellcow” back after Week 6 last season, and he was performing as a mid-level RB1 prior to suffering a shoulder injury that cut his breakout season short. With Khiry Robinson gone and C.J. Spiller an afterthought, he should return to inherit 20-25 touches per game. Ingram is an excellent pass blocker, so if Spiller doesn’t seriously pick up his game, he will see most, if not all, of the snaps in New Orleans. I’m buying in heavily here.

 

Matt Forte (New York Jets) – Call me crazy, but I’m of the opinion that the Jets managed one of the best acquisitions of the offseason, signing Forte to a 3-year contract. I understand that he’s on the wrong side of 30, but don’t forget that he averaged 1,100 rushing yards from 2008-14, and likely would have hit that mark last season if he wasn’t injured. Forte has already stated that the Jets view him as an every-down option, despite them signing Khiry Robinson as well. While Bilal Powell may spell him on the occasional passing down and Robinson could vulture a TD or two, Forte is a solid RB2, and will be drafted much lower.

Ryan Mathews (Philadelphia Eagles) – So long and farewell to DeMarco Murray, the Mathews era has begun. Sure, his 2015 numbers don’t exactly jump off of the page, but there is a lot which needs to be said for someone who should see 85 percent of a team’s total carries when healthy. With Darren Sproles his only true competition, Mathews has ample opportunity to provide a tremendous amount of upside, given his current ADP. As has been the care in prior seasons, the major question is health. Should Mathews stay on the field for 14 plus games, a return to his 2013 numbers is within reason.

 

Thomas Rawls/C.J. Prosise (Seattle Seahawks) – One would assume that Rawls would be higher on my rankings, given the gaudy statistics which he posted last season, yet there are several factors which give me pause. Rawls is still recovering from the ankle injury which he sustained during December, and beat reporters are quite skeptical that he will play much (if at all) during the entire preseason. The team opted to draft Prosise in the third-round, and will get to see his electric talent right away. In addition to receiving reps with the running back core, Prosise is also seeing time with the wide receiver group. Seattle clearly wants to get him on the field right away. If Rawls continues to be slow in his recovery, there will be a definite shift in the split of carries.

Wide Receivers

 

Demaryius Thomas (Denver Broncos) – There aren’t many surprises on my list until we get to Thomas, who falls all the way to 15th at the position. The switch from Peyton Manning to Brock Osweiler didn’t effect his 2015 numbers quite as much as the precipitous rise in dropped passes, which was certainly a concern. The drop-off from Osweiler to Mark Sanchez and/or Paxton Lynch caps his value, and although he is still the team’s best offensive weapon by far, one has to wonder what his numbers will look like at the end of 2016. Volume alone suggests that he will still catch 100 passes, but don’t be surprised to see his receiving totals close to the 1200 mark, rather than the 1619 number he posted in 2014.

Kelvin Benjamin (Carolina Panthers) – Many owners might have forgotten about Benjamin, since we didn’t see him participate in a single snap last year after tearing his ACL. All signs point to his recovery being on track, and he has been participating in individual drills in OTAs already. Benjamin provides the threat that the Panthers truly need – a big body capable of providing a huge catch radius capable of contesting the jump balls which Cam Newton enjoys throwing. I have Benjamin ranked as my 20th WR currently, just behind Randall Cobb and Jarvis Landry. Should he return to health, expect him to build on his rookie season and provide a sneaky amount of value.

 

Jordan Matthews (Philadelphia Eagles) – Call me crazy, but I think Matthews is going to be critically under drafted this season, largely in part due to the negative publicity that Sam Bradford put forth around the NFL Draft. Consider this – from Week 12-17, Matthews had six touchdowns and was finally utilized as the team’s primary receiving option. When the Eagles finally said “Ah, the hell with it” and utilized him and Zach Ertz more effectively, they were able to finally move the ball up the field when necessary. Matthews is constantly being compared in terms of his size and skillset to Marques Colston, and I feel that is an accurate assessment. He will continue primarily playing on the inside, and owners should expect his volume of targets to rise. Especially if Bradford remains the quarterback over the course of the full season while Carson Wentz learns the playbook, Matthews will excel.

 

Sterling Shepard (New York Giants) – Alright, I’ll admit that this is a bit of a home pick since I’m a Giants fan, but please hear me out on this one. Eli Manning has historically looked to his slot receivers in clutch situations, and Ben McAdoo’s offense runs primarily out of three wide receiver sets. With Victor Cruz still slowly recovering from his torn patellar tendon, owners should expect Shepard to not only draw single coverage while opposite Odell Beckham Jr., but his soft hands will bring in over 70 receptions this season. The Giants offense is no longer predicated upon a strong running game, and their offensive line, while improving, doesn’t offer Manning a ton of time to let plays develop. All of these factors point towards Shepard being in contention for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Yeah, I’m that high on him.

Tight Ends

 

Coby Fleener (New Orleans Saints) – I find it seriously odd typing that Fleener has big shoes to fill with the departure of Ben Watson. That aside, Fleener steps into an incredibly advantageous situation in New Orleans. Not only does he face little in the way of competition, but the coaching staff has already clearly identified his strengths and weaknesses. Sean Payton has come flat out and stated that Fleener is certainly an offensive weapon, but isn’t an asset in the blocking game. While he won’t put up Jimmy Graham numbers, the lack of tertiary receiving weapons in New Orleans suggests that he will see a fair number of targets. Even if his stone hands continue to drop a few passes, he will see a dramatic spike in production.

 

Martellus Bennett (New England Patriots) – Bennett’s profile can be firmly placed next to “what could have been” in Webster’s dictionary. Injuries and a lack of commitment have sidelined his career, but owners should expect a return to prominence in New England. The Patriots have been searching for a suitable TE2 option ever since Aaron Hernandez’s well publicized first-degree murder case. I get the feeling that Bennett’s ADP will hinder his return on investment, but it is clear that he will be used an a weapon right away. Expect him to draw away targets from Danny Amendola and not Rob Gronkowski. Bennett’s touchdowns will be limited, but his receptions and yardage totals may surprise many.