DFS Three And Out 2019 week 7
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Allen hasn't been a spectacular season-long option (one weekly finish better than 14th to date), but he's offered DFS owners a little more. This week it could be a lot more. As ESPN's Mike Clay pointed out, Miami allowed four straight top-nine fantasy weeks to quarterbacks prior to "limiting" Case Keenum to 166 yards and two touchdowns on 25 attempts in Week 6. ESPN's Al Zeidenfeld chimed in with the fact that Miami is allowing a league-high 13.5 yards per completion this season. Sure, Allen has struggled with turnovers (seven INTs, five fumbles), but he entered Week 6 no lower than third among quarterbacks in carries, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. He's had either a rushing score or a 40-plus-yard completion in every game this season and he accounted for five touchdowns the last time he saw these Dolphins back in Week 17. The allure of a multi-touchdown day with the potential of big rushing totals is more than I can pass on -- especially given the price ($7,700 on FanDuel; $6,500 on DraftKings). Meanwhile, ESPN.com's Jim McCormick suggests that stacking Allen with John Brown is an ideal plan this week, but not everyone can put together that pairing. If that's an issue for you, Cole Beasley is a cheaper option who has enjoyed more dynamic and daring usage with Buffalo than in Dallas. Most of this endorsement is fueled by the opponent, though, as McCormick pointed out that receivers are netting "a silly" 15.5 yards per catch against Miami this season.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
What's better than dialing up players who just came up small for their owners and investors? As NFL.com's Michael Florio suggested, Kupp disappointed in Week 6, but he is sure to get back on track in Week 7. He faces a Falcons defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers (17.62). Kupp leads the NFL in slot targets (53) and should take advantage of the great matchup. More broadly, as Clay notes, despite wide receivers combining for 503 routes (fourth-fewest) and 109 targets (10th-fewest) against Atlanta, they've posted a receiving line of 83-1,182-10, all of which rank no lower than sixth. Atlanta is allowing 10.8 yards per target (second-highest) and a 76 percent catch rate (highest) to the position. Yes. You're going to have to pay up ($7,800 on FanDuel; $7,400 on DraftKings). But Zeidenfeld summed it up nicely for me when he wrote: "Do as I say and play Kupp. You will want to thank me."
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
According to Clay, "Hilton owns the Texans. ..." It's true. And he's owned them since. ... Well, since forever. In 15 career games against the AFC South rival, he's put up 81 catches, 1,530 yards and nine touchdowns on 130 targets. Per Clay, Hilton reached 78 yards in 11 of the 15 games, including seven 100-yard showings. Hilton put up receiving lines of 4-115-0, 9-199-0 and 5-85-0 in three games against Houston last season. As if that's not enough, Houston has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, including the second-most to perimeter receivers this season. The Texans have surrendered the third-most receptions (88) and sixth-most touchdowns (eight) to wideouts. Beyond that, as FantasyPro's Mike Tagliere pointed out, the Texans secondary has already allowed seven different wide receivers to finish as top-24 options against them, including the speedy Tyreek Hill last week who got behind them for 80 yards and two touchdowns. Tagliere added, there have been five receivers who've topped seven targets against the Texans and knowing that all of them scored at least 18.5 PPR points bodes well for Hilton given his history. Also, the price ($7,600 on FanDuel; $5,900 on DraftKings) is by no means prohibitive.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Redskins
I get it. McLaurin's rookie season has been nothing short of phenomenal to date as he's posted 408 receiving yards and five TDs in five games played. That's sufficient to make him fantasy's WR4 on a per-game basis. But as FanDuel's Max Staley understated: "McLaurin's breakout campaign could hit roadblock in Week 7. ..." True that. The issue isn't so much the cost ($6,400 on FanDuel; $6,100 on DraftKings); it's the matchup. Over the last two weeks, San Francisco's secondary been dominant against wide receivers this season, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position as a whole -- 5.0 points per game, as well as the seventh-fewest to the perimeter and fifth-fewest to the slot. According to Clay, they've allowed only 45 receptions to the position (fewest on a per-game basis) and 635 receiving yards (third-fewest). This is because they have the NFL's best secondary, per Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings. San Francisco also ranks No. 3 in the NFL with a 10.0 sack percentage, and has forced a turnover on 19.0 of its opponent's drives. Or as ESPN's Matthew Berry noted: "In the past two weeks, no player has more than four catches against San Francisco, only one player had more than 27 receiving yards, and in the first five games, teams have entered the red zone against the Niners just 12 times."