DFS GPP STACKS WEEK 16 2021

DRAFTKINGS WEEK 16 DFS GPP STACKS TO TARGET

We were treated to a good one last night where we saw AJ Brown and Deebo Samuel butt heads to stake their claims as this week’s overall WR1, but it was ultimately Brown and the Titans that came out on top. We get a day off from sports today before Christmas comes and we’re hit with a weekend full of NFL and NBA, so be sure to check out my cash article on site as well!

LA RAMS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (LAR -3, O/U 48.5)

There is no contest on the main slate that has an O/U over 50 points, and this one leads the slate. If betting, I like the over as it projects to be fast and high-scoring due to the pace and pass rate over expectation of both teams. Stafford and his receivers could conceivably break the slate here as Minnesota has allowed the fourth most FPPG to opposing QBs and the most FPPG to WRs. They’ve also given up the fourth most passing plays over 20 yards, and Stafford is second in the NFL in downfield passes. To pile that on even more, Stafford leads the league in QBR when faced with a blitz, and the Vikings blitz at the third highest rate. Obviously Cooper Kupp is the pairing you want, and I pointed out in my cash article that he should be 10k. The fact that he’s still only $9100 is a mistake, especially when you see that his AVERAGE is 8.7 receptions, 116.6, and a TD per game. Double stacking with either Van Jefferson or Odell Beckahm makes perfect sense, and given the downfield nature of the game I like Odell a bit more.

Both RBs healthy in the backfield seems a bit tricky, but Sony Michel played 73% of snaps and had 20 touches, and he’s clearly playing as the better back of the two. Minnesota has allowed the tenth most FPPG to RBs, so he’s a fun bringback to Vikings passing game stacks.

As for the Vikings, they arguable have this year’s fantasy WR2 in Justin Jefferson (behind the aforementioned Kupp), who has 69 targets and five TDs over his last six games. He will likely get Jalen Ramsey, but Jefferson’s talent is easy to bet on in tournaments. If you want to be daring with the passing game, you can use Adam Thielen (or KJ Osborn if Thielen misses) and Tyler Conklin as major leverage plays off Jalen Ramsey coverage.

The best bringback to Rams stacks is Alexander Mattison, who will be the lead back with Dalvin Cook on the COVID shelf. The matchup is middling, but Mattison has averaged 24.5 touches per game with 16 targets in the games Cook has missed this year. He’s somewhat priced fairly, but still can destroy his price tag with the opportunity coming his way.


STACK IDEAS
Stafford/Kupp/V Jefferson w/ J Jefferson
Stafford/Kupp/Beckham w/ Mattison

Cousins/Jefferson/Thielen (or Osborn) w/ Michel
Cousins/Conklin/Thielen (or Osborn) w/ Kupp

BALTIMORE RAVENS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (CIN -3, O/U 45)

The above game is really the only one we’re looking to fully stack, but some individual teams have big appeal for tournaments, and I think the Bengals are wrongfully coming under the radar. Burrow and company have put up pedestrian numbers lately, but they could really break out against the Ravens whose pass defense has crumbled completely. Marlon Humphrey is out again, and Baltimore has allowed the second highest YPA along with the most passing plays over 20 yards. JaMarr Chase has an aDOT of 13 yards and Tee Higgins is not far behind with 12.1. Both could steamroll this Baltimore secondary and are coming in with much less ownership than their upside. CJ Ozumah’s paltry 4.8 aDOT doesn’t scream GPP appeal, but he’s only $3000 and the Ravens have allowed the fourth most FPPG to opposing TEs.

The easy bringback to CIN stacks is Mark Andrews, who has 21 catches on 24 targets from Tyler Huntley over the past two weeks along with three TDs. It’s also not like Lamar Jackson would be a downgrade for him either, as Andrews leads the NFL in RZ targets and has four games of double-digit targets from Jackson


STACK IDEAS
Burrow/Chase/Higgins w/ Andrews
Burrow/Chase or Higgins/Ozumah w/ Andrews or Marquis Brown

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT NEW YORK GIANTS (PHI -10, O/U 40.5)

Make no mistake, you’re not playing the Giants’ players here who have averaged 11.8 PPG since their bye (there’s one potential bringback if you think Jake Fromm somehow manages to bring this team back, but I don’t see it).

It’s the Eagles you want here, as the Giants also rank 30th in overall DVOA since their bye, and their personnel is crumbling on both sides of the ball. Jalen Hurts has QB1 overall upside in this one, especially after his 11.4 YPA last game following more nonsense about how he should be benched for Gardner Minshew. The Giants have allowed the fourth most QB rushing yards are are 31st in pressure rate, so Hurts should do what he wants in this one. Go right ahead and double stack him with Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, with Goedert being the preferred option if choosing one (the Giants have allowed the tenth most FPPG to opposing TEs).

Another interesting path to success is pairing Hurts and Miles Sanders with the Eagles D. Since Sanders returned from injury, he’s probably averaged the quietest 6.9 YPC I’ve ever seen in the NFL and has 42 carries over the last two weeks while catching all five targets thrown his way. The rushing tandem of Hurts and Sanders pairs well with the Eagles D, whose blitz rate should overwhelm either Glennon or Fromm (it doesn’t matter who starts honestly).

If looking to run back the Eagles passing stack with anyone, Saquon Barkley is the only ones that makes sense with his 83% snap share, and the Eagles have allowed the eighth most FPPG to opposing RBs.


STACK IDEAS
Hurts/Smith/Goedert w/ Barkley
Hurts/Sanders/Eagles w/ no Giants players