DFS Hunter Report Week 5 2018

By Dave Hunter

Week 4 treated me well, mainly since I went 9-4-1 against the spread in a weekly ATS contest and won $360, beating everyone for the top prize. Aside from that, I also turned in a 221.48-point lineup in a Tiers contest on DraftKings. It earned me 967th place out of 59,453 entries. Not bad, although I was still 36 points away from winning it all. Thanks to Philip Rivers, James White, Amari Cooper, Sterling Shepard and the lovely Alvin Kamara, along with others, for the fine effort though.

I’ve got a good feeling about this season when it comes to my Tournament lineups, just need to pick that magical lineup among the few I submit each week.

As I mention every week, I’ll be basing my weekly write-ups off DraftKings salaries, keeping in mind all suggestions are not equal and some players I like more for tournament or cash lineup builds over others.

QUARTERBACK

Top Level

Matt Ryan, ATL @ Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,600) – Ryan is destined for a big day in Week 5, facing the Steelers porous secondary. The Steelers have given up an average of 305 YPG, but the real issue through the air are the 12 TDs they’ve given up, second worst in the league. With the imposing weapons that Matty Ice gets to throw to, we’ll see production well worth the $6.6K price tag. Let’s just say I don’t feel an about-face turnaround for the Steelers defense this week. I love Matty based on the matchup, but how about those WRs of his? I’m locking Matty into cash lineups and sprinkling him about in tournament play.

Other Choices: Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. Atlanta Falcons ($6,900)

Value

Derek Carr, OAK @ Los Angeles Chargers ($5,200) – I don’t like that Carr hasn’t had a ton of success facing the Chargers over his career. Plus, he hasn’t tossed many TDs prior to his Week 4 outburst in 2018. So, there’s some risk with Carr when it comes to TD scores; however, you gotta love the 343 YPG average this season. Man, that’s darn impressive. Were you aware Carr has been throwing for that kind of yardage? I like this game to be a back-and-forth contest, sort of like the Raiders/Browns matchup in Week 4, and for Carr to exceed 300 yards again, but with at least 2 TD passes. The potential is higher though in this game and I love Carr for tournament lineups.

Other Choices: Carson Wentz, PHI vs. Minnesota Vikings ($5,800); Matt Stafford, DET vs. Green Bay Packers ($5,700); Blake Bortles, JAC @ Kansas City Chiefs ($5,500)

Over-Value

Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,200) – Okay, maybe Mahomes isn’t really an Over-Value option at QB this week. He is, however, a risky option considering the Jaguars secondary is incredible, allowing only 164 YPG to this point through the air. Mahomes’ salary actually drops $800 from last week due to the matchup this week. Still, I’m excited to watch this game, mainly to see if Mahomes is a matchup-proof option moving forward. This is the ultimate test. I’m willing to spend elsewhere at QB this week considering the matchup.

Other Choices: Marcus Mariota, TEN @ Buffalo Bills ($6,100)

RUNNING BACK

Top Level

Melvin Gordon, III, LAC vs. Oakland Raiders ($8,600) – Again, I love the potential for this game to be a high scoring affair, with Gordon having a chance for monster output. I have this game pegged as the highest scoring output total, aside from the Falcons/Steelers game of course. Gordon eclipsed the 100-yard rushing mark for the first time in 2018 facing the 49ers in Week 4, and we all know that the Raiders can’t stop the run. Plus, consider what Gordon does as an out-of-the-backfield receiver and you’ve got a doozy of a player to build your lineup around. Gordon is my favorite play this week, so put an extra special star by his name.

Other Choices: Todd Gurley, II, LAR @ Seattle Seahawks ($9,400); Christian McCaffery, CAR vs. New York Giants ($8,000);

Value

James Conner, PIT vs. Atlanta Falcons ($7,500) – Value isn’t based on how low the price is, it’s the expected results for the dough you spend. I’m surprised Conner’s price didn’t jump up a bit from last week. Conner is lined up for a similar Week 1 game where he netted 135 yards on the ground with 2 TD scores facing the Browns. I love the matchup facing the Falcons, a team that’s given up 6 rushing TDs this season. The only thing I worry about is Conner’s ownership percentage, which may be a bit inflated.

Kareem Hunt, KC vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,800) – I list a second value option here based on Hunt’s price. I mean, come on? $5.8K for one of the better RBs in the game? I’m at least taking a chance on him in a lineup or two no matter the matchup. If the Chiefs are going to succeed this week, the ground game will be key.

Other Choices: David Johnson, ARI @ San Francisco 49ers ($6,300); T.J. Yeldon, JAC @ Kansas City Chiefs ($5,600); Marshawn Lynch, OAK @ Los Angeles Chargers ($5,500); Dion Lewis, TEN @ Buffalo Bills ($5,400)

Over-Value

Devonta Freeman, ATL @ Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,500) – I’m projecting the Flacons to be cautious with Freeman’s workload. I’d avoid using him in your lineups coming off injury, especially with Tevin Coleman playing good football right now. The price tag is not worth taking the risk.

Other Choices: Giovani Bernard, CIN vs. Miami Dolphins ($6,800)

WIDE RECEIVER

Top Level

Antonio Brown, PIT vs. Atlanta Falcons ($9,100) – Yep, this is an easy one for me in a game where there should be plenty of points scored. Big Ben Roethlisberger was off last week facing the Ravens but he’ll straighten out this week, locking onto Brown often. This is one week where I’m fine spending up to land Brown’s services. Don’t be surprised if this is Brown’s best game of the season.

Other Choices: Adam Thielen, MIN @ Philadelphia Eagles ($7,700); JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT vs. Atlanta Falcons ($7,500); Emmanuel Sanders, DEN @ New York Jets ($7,100)

Value

Calvin Ridley, ATL @ Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,800) – Like I said last week with Will Fuller, V, this will be the last week we see Ridley below the $6K mark. Matchup – check. Targets – check. TD scores – check. Ridley is an animal receiver who will continue to get his, even with Julio Jones playing on the opposite side of the field. Of course, that’s the main reason Ridley is open so often – the double teaming and special attention that Jones gets on the field. This is value staring you in the face, folks – lock him in.

Other Choices: John Brown, BAL @ Cleveland Browns ($5,600); Amari Cooper, OAK @ Los Angeles Chargers ($5,500); Kenny Stills, MIA @ Cincinnati Bengals ($5,400); Keelan Cole, JAC @ Kansas City Chiefs ($4,900); Dede Westbrook, JAC @ Kansas City Chiefs ($4,700); Marvin Jones, Jr., DET vs. Green Bay Packers ($4,700)

Over-Value

A.J. Green, CIN vs. Miami Dolphins ($7,200) – I don’t expect Green to earn this $7.2K price at all, so steer clear. I love Green’s talents, just not enough to spend up for him. The Dolphins defense will come back from the Patriots shellacking in Week 4, enough to keep Green in check.

Other Choices: Davante Adams, GB @ Detroit Lions ($7,600)

TIGHT END

Top Level

Travis Kelce, KC vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,000)

Jared Cook, OAK @ Los Angeles Chargers ($4,800)

Value

Austin Hooper, ATL @ Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,000)

Ricky Seals-Jones, ARI vs. San Francisco 49ers ($2,900)

Over-Value

George Kittle, SF vs. Arizona Cardinals ($5,400)

Good luck in Week 5! Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy