TheHunterReport DFS Week 17 2016

By Dave Hunter

This is it, Folks – the last week of the 2016 regular season is upon us. This is the last week that we’ll be able to fill out a lineup with a full slate of games on the docket. We’ll get playoff games, sure, but it just isn’t the same deal-io, is it?

It’s hard to believe that the season is at an end, although I’m happy to report I’ll be writing through the playoffs up to the Super Bowl with DraftKings.com carrying contests through the conference title games. Good, right?

We at least have some time to decompress ourselves and prepare for the inevitable, harsh ending that we’ve all come accustomed to in years past. Good luck in Week 17 – it’s time to make it all happen!

QUARTERBACK

Top Level

Aaron Rodgers, GB @ Detroit Lions ($7,700) – Big players come up big in big games, right? That’s the old saying anyway, and I do expect Rodgers to light up the airways with the Packers lack of a running game. We’ll see at least 300 yards and 2 TD passes. The expectation at this price though is higher, so that means in order for Rodgers to earn his price tag he’ll need to throw 3 TDs. I’m betting he does, even facing the wily Detroit secondary.

Other choices: Drew Brees, NO @ Atlanta Falcons ($7,600); Matt Ryan, ATL vs. New Orleans Saints ($7,400)

Mid-Range

Cam Newton, CAR @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,200) – Newton will end the season on a good statistical note, and I love the massive talent we’re getting at the $6.2K price tag. This is the sort of under-the-radar play that you’ve got to take advantage of to win tournament play, nabbing the major talent for a good price while most will be paying attention to higher-priced QBs with more attractive matchups.

Other choices: Kirk Cousins, WAS vs. New York Giants ($6,500); Jameis Winston, TB vs. Carolina Panthers ($6,100); Eli Manning, NYG @ Washington Redskins ($5,900)

Value

Matthew Stafford, DET vs. Green Bay Packers ($6,000) –Stafford has been a solid DFS contributor – nothing fancy but very solid. It’s worth noting, however, that Stafford did have a fantastic 30.5 fantasy point day against the Packers earlier in the year. With a playoff spot on the line, the Lions will do anything and everything through the air in this game and that means Stafford may have 50-plus passing attempts or more. The downside here is that Stafford has only had 4 TD passes over his last five games played. I expect that to change in Week 17 facing the Packers and with the solid value here at $6K, we could be looking at a lottery tournament snag in Stafford. I love him this week and expect his ownership to be low enough to pay off dividends.

Other choices: Blake Bortles, JAC @ Indianapolis Colts ($5,600); Tom Savage, HOU @ Tennessee Titans ($5,400); Landry Jones, PIT vs. Cleveland Browns ($5,000)

Over-Value

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. Cleveland Browns ($7,300) – There’s a distinct possibility that Big Ben won’t play in Week 17 against the Browns. The Steelers have their playoff spot locked up and can’t change their current 3rd ranked seeding, so it’s smart of ya’ll to stay away from Big Ben.

RUNNING BACK

Top Level

David Johnson, ARI @ Los Angeles Rams ($9,800) – I’m sure you can work a lineup or two around Johnson this week as there will be some decent values out there to help out at other positions. Johnson already has over 2,000 yards from scrimmage this season and is easily the MVP of DFS play in 2016. I guess that’s why I’m leaving him up in this slot for the gazillionth time this year. The Rams won’t be a layover for Johnson but DJ will find a way to get close to his 27.9 FPPG average.

Other choices: LeSean McCoy, BUF @ New York Jets ($8,900); Ezekiel Elliott, DAL @ Philadelphia Eagles ($7,400)

Mid-Range

Devonta Freeman, ATL vs. New Orleans Saints ($7,000) – I’m not a huge fan of the mid-range options this week. I’m likely going to spend up at RB for most of my lineups, or take the value plays where I can. I’d rather not spend in this range, even though I do like Freeman facing the Saints. I like Tevin Coleman as well for roughly $2K less. But with Coleman you get the boom-or-bust uncertainty each week.

Other choices: Jordan Howard, CHI @ Minnesota Vikings ($6,800)

Value

Bilal Powell, NYJ vs. Buffalo Bills ($6,500) – I dig the matchup and appreciate the price tag, although Powell isn’t a huge value or anything. Still, a slight value here in Powell is good enough. I expect to see 1 TD by ground at a minimum with 80-plus yards. The sky is the limit though, so a boom-game isn’t out of the question for Powell. I really dig Powell for cash games but feel free to use him in tournament play too.

Other choices: Mark Ingram, NO @ Atlanta Falcons ($5,600); Latavius Murray, OAK @ Denver Broncos ($5,200); Derrick Henry, TEN vs. Houston Texans ($4,900)

Over-Value

Le'Veon Bell, PIT vs. Cleveland Browns ($10,400) – I’m having a difficult time paying this kind of dough for Bell, who may only play half the game. Or worse, Bell may not play at all. I think anytime you get above the $10K mark salary-wise you’ve got to question how that will work in your lineup anyway. No thanks, Mr. Bell.

WIDE RECEIVER

Top Level

Julio Jones, ATL vs. New Orleans Saints ($8,400) – The Falcons must get Jones more involved in the offense this week as they head into the playoffs, and what perfect time when facing the Saints pass defense? The price isn’t bad, actually, for what I expect out of Jones in Week 17. I’m willing to work Jones into my lineups in both cash and tournament play. It’s always possible the Falcons rest Jones some, so keep that in mind before lineups lock. It’s always a fantastic idea to read the news tidbits at this time of the year anyway.

Other choices: Odell Beckham, Jr., NYG @ Washington Redskins ($9,000); Jordy Nelson, GB @ Detroit Lions ($8,100); Doug Baldwin, SEA @ San Francisco 49ers ($7,200)

Mid-Range

Golden Tate, DET vs. Green Bay Packers ($6,600) – If I’m all over Matthew Stafford this week it would make some sense that I’m all over Tate, wouldn’t you think? Well, we all know it doesn’t always work out that way. I mean, I am into Tate this week, although I’m not as crazy about him as I am Stafford. Still, it’s hard for me to pass up the QB-WR hook up here.

Other choices: A.J. Green, CIN vs. Baltimore Ravens ($6,800); DeAndre Hopkins, HOU @ Tennessee Titans ($6,500); Sammy Watkins, BUF @ New York Jets ($5,800)

Value

Sterling Shepard, NYG @ Washington Redskins ($4,900) – I really like Shepard’s consistency when it comes to finding the end zone. There’s a nice shot he scores a TD again and nets some good yardage, and at a sub-$5K price? I’m taking it. The Redskins need this game to have a shot at the playoffs and the Giants aren’t going to lay down, even with their playoff spot secured. And, let’s say the Giants do rest in this one… it won’t be Shepard.

Other choices: Stefon Diggs, MIN vs. Chicago Bears ($5,400); Taylor Gabriel, ATL vs. New Orleans Saints ($Jamison Crowder, WAS vs. New York Giants ($5,000)

Over-Value

Antonio Brown, PIT vs. Cleveland Browns ($8,700) – Have you noticed a theme in the over-value spots? Yeah, it’s the obvious play to list the Steelers heavy hitters here. I’ve got to do it, with the expectation that Brown and others will sit this one out or be very limited at least.

TIGHT END

Top Level

Travis Kelce, KC @ San Diego Chargers ($5,000)

Zach Ertz, PHI vs. Dallas Cowboys ($4,800)

Mid-Range

Martellus Bennett, NE @ Miami Dolphins ($3,900)

Value

Dennis Pitta, BAL @ Cincinnati Bengals ($3,400)

Over-Value

Jordan Reed, WAS vs. New York Giants ($5,100)

Good luck in Week 17! Feel free to stalk me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy