TheHunterReport DFS Week 12 2016

By Dave Hunter
Dave Hunter I knew at some point I’d cash again – I just didn’t think I’d go nine weeks in between. Without further adieu, I’m getting straight to my one and ONLY lineup I submitted in the DraftKings NFL $1.2M Play-Action [$1,200,000] contest.

At the last minute, I decided to be a cheapie in Week 11 and submit just the one $3 lineup, which gave me 154.64 points as I finished 37,837 out of 470,588 netting a $7 total return. Yay for more than doubling my money:


Position Player; Team % Draft Fantasy Points
QB Tyrod Taylor, BUF 4.6 9.54
RB Le’Veon Bell, PIT 37.1 34.5
RB David Johnson, ARI 7 38
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS 18.2 22.2
WR Tyreek Hill, KC 21.4 10.1
WR Rishard Matthews, TEN 10.2 24.2
TE Martellus Bennett, NE 35.7 2.4
FLEX Golden Tate, DET 16.3 4.1
DST Giants 7.6 7
Total 152.04




Going running back strong was smart, so hopefully you went that route as well but didn’t use Martellus Bennett as your tight end or Tyrod Taylor as your quarterback. Blech. Bennett seemed obvious considering his price tag and that he wasn’t really injured like some thought. Plus, not taking advantage of the many players I could’ve slotted in over Golden Tate hurt me - so many choices to regret, eh? Moving onto Week 12 should be fun, considering the slate of games on Thanksgiving Day. Since there will be a spike in varying contests on DFS sites, I’ll be sure to mix in some players from the Turkey games as well. Yeehaw!

QUARTERBACK



Top Level

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT @ Indianapolis Colts ($7,300) – Big Ben has been forgettable on the road, although the matchup sticks out to me quite a bit. I expect the Steelers offense to have a very good day in Indianapolis, with Big Ben taking advantage of his plethora of wide receivers. You have to figure Le’Veon Bell will get some great dump-off balls out of the backfield as well, right? Look for the Steelers to roll in a rare road victory.

Other choices: Tom Brady, NE @ New York Jets ($7,800); Cam Newton, CAR @ Oakland Raiders ($6,800)

Mid-Range

Eli Manning, NYG @ Cleveland Browns ($6,500) – It just doesn’t seem fair, does it? Manning vs. the Browns? I have a feeling that there will be lots and lots of owners feeling the same way this week, so be prepared for Manning to be highly owned in Week 12. It’s okay to use Manning in cash games, but I’d look elsewhere in GPP tournament play.

Other choices: Russell Wilson, SEA vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,700); Dak Prescott, DAL vs. Washington Redskins (6,300); Derek Carr, OAK vs. Carolina Panthers ($6,100)

Value

Carson Palmer, ARI @ Atlanta Falcons ($5.500) – Not only does the matchup attract me as Palmer faces the Falcons awful pass defense, but don’t you dig the price point? I see Palmer in cash and tournament lineups this week, although some owners are probably souring on him big-time. I still have faith in Palmer, even with his highly inconsistent receiving corps. There’s always David Johnson. I mean, a quarterback has to feel comfortable knowing that at least.

Other choices: Kirk Cousins, WAS @ Dallas Cowboys ($5,900); Ryan Tannehill, MIA vs. San Francisco 49ers ($5,500); Joe Flacco, BAL vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($5,300)

Over-Value

Marcus Mariota, TEN @ Chicago Bears ($7,200) – This is the first time that Mariota his hit the $7K mark on DraftKings. I love what the guy has done this season, although I’m not as confident in him at this price when I can pay $600 more for Tom Brady. Mariota is certainly capable of earning his tag facing the Bears on Sunday; he’s just not my gamble this week.

RUNNING BACK



Top Level

Jay Ajayi, MIA vs. San Francisco 49ers ($7,600) – I expect Ajayi to wreck this weekend, with the hopes that so many others will go with the likes of David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell and DeMarco Murray. There’s nothing wrong with those other dudes, unless you’re looking for a GPP advantage. Maybe I’m underestimating the ownership percentage for Ajayi this week? It’s definitely possible; however, I don’t see a ton of owners rostering Ajayi AND one of Johnson, Bell or Murray. What I’m trying to say is: if you’re going to pick one of these RBs in a tournament at this price point, Ajayi is your guy. But, the other guys are great if you’re spending up at RB for cash games.

Other choices: Le’Veon Bell, PIT @ Indianapolis Colts ($9,000); Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs. Washington Redskins ($8,500); David Johnson, ARI @ Atlanta Falcons ($8,900)

Value

Todd Gurley, LA vs. New Orleans Saints ($5,700) – There really aren’t any Mid-Range RBs I’m digging this week, so it’s sort of setting up a lineup strategy for me. I like Gurley to build from last week and he’s got a fine matchup facing the Saints run defense. With young Jared Goff at the helm, the Rams will certainly rely on Gurley for a heavy load.

Other choices: Lamar Miller, HOU vs. San Diego Chargers ($5,800); Thomas Rawls, SEA @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,700); Frank Gore, IND vs. Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,200); Jonathan Stewart, CAR @ Oakland Raiders ($5,000)

Over-Value

Spencer Ware, KC @ Denver Broncos ($6,100) – The Broncos have been pretty porous on defense against the run, although I don’t like Ware here. He hasn’t done much over the last few weeks of play, his price tag is misleading and he’s in Denver playing in a very difficult venue. There are too many question marks, ones that lead me into paying up or dropping down at RB.

WIDE RECEIVER



Top Level

Julio Jones, ATL vs. Arizona Cardinals ($8,500) – Jones’ price has dropped significantly on DraftKings and I don’t see how I can ignore it. Talent alone, regardless of matchup, at this reasonable $8.5K price is so worth rostering Jones – gimme. The Cardinals are solid defensively; still, it’s not enough of a reason to pass on Jones. The great players put up numbers against all defenses. Don’t be surprised if Jones is under owned.

Other choices: Antonio Brown, PIT @ Indianapolis Colts ($9,200); Odell Beckham, Jr., NYG @ Cleveland Browns ($8,800); Amari Cooper, OAK vs. Carolina Panthers ($7,700); Dez Bryant, DAL vs. Washington Redskins ($7,700)

Mid-Range



Emmanuel Sanders, DEN vs. Kansas City Chiefs ($6,200) – There are quite a few Mid-Range WRs I like this week, with Sanders being a solid representation of a Week 12 lineup DFS play. You can spend up for Demaryius Thomas if you wish, but I don’t see the risk variance to be enough of a difference to pay up for Thomas. I love the matchup for the Denver passing game in general.

Other choices: Kelvin Benjamin, CAR @ Oakland Raiders ($6,700); DeAndre Hopkins, HOU vs. San Diego Chargers ($6,300); Jarvis Landry, MIA vs. San Francisco 49ers ($5,900); Rishard Matthews, TEN @ Chicago Bears ($5,800); Jamison Crowder, WAS @ Dallas Cowboys ($5,800)

Value

Cameron Meredith, CHI vs. Tennessee Titans ($4,700) – The matchup is good, but can we depend upon Meredith to get enough targets and catches to be worth rostering? Ah, yes, that’s the key. I really don’t think the Bears will have a problem moving the ball up and down the field, so Meredith will get plenty of looks. I like him to even find the end zone this week. Risky – but aren’t they all at this price?

Other choices: DaVante Parker, MIA vs. San Francisco 49ers ($4,700); Eli Rogers, PIT @ Indianapolis Colts ($4,500); Adam Thielen, MIN @ Detroit Lions ($4,000)

Over-Value

T.Y. Hilton, IND vs. Pittsburgh Steelers ($7,900) – There is no way I’m putting Hilton in my lineup with Andrew Luck highly unlikely to play on Thursday due to a concussion. Don’t even mess around with the idea – the same goes for Donte Moncrief.

TIGHT END



Top Level

Jordan Reed, WAS @ Dallas Cowboys ($6,200)
Greg Olsen, CAR @ Oakland Raiders ($5,800)

Mid-Range

Martellus Bennett, NE @ New York Jets ($4,500)

Value

Eric Ebron, DET vs. Minnesota Vikings ($4,000)
Gary Barnidge, CLE vs. New York Giants ($3,600)

Good luck in Week 12! Feel free to stalk me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy