TheHunterReport DFS Week 16 2016

By Dave Hunter

It continues to be a very interesting football season, with players tanking late in the season that aren’t supposed to tank. And, of course, the reverse is happening as well. I’m sure it’s been going on since the inception of football, although it’s seemingly hitting me harder this year than most.

In other news, the Oakland Raiders made the playoffs. Yes, there are Raiders fans out there, namely me, that appreciate the fantastic turnaround in 2016. Gotta love what Derek Carr, Latavius Murray and Amari Cooper have done for my DFS lineups when I’ve used them. This is a good week to use the trio, facing the Colts defense. You game?

As we head into Week 16, keep in mind all salaries are based on DraftKings.com.

QUARTERBACK

Top Level

Matt Ryan, ATL @ Carolina Panthers ($7,200) – It would be easy for me to list Tom Brady or Drew Brees here, so if you want to use either I have no problem with that at all. You can save a few bucks by going with Ryan, who has another good matchup this week facing the Panthers’ pass defense. I hate saying that Atlanta needs this game, but they sort of do I guess. Ryan may be without Julio Jones again, so you need to consider that; however, I like him enough to be a 20-plus fantasy point guy tossing to Taylor Gabriel.

Other choices: Andrew Luck, IND @ Oakland Raiders ($7,000); Derek Carr, OAK vs. Indianapolis Colts ($6,800)

Mid-Range

Marcus Mariota, TEN @ Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,000) – The Jaguars defense, especially their secondary, has played well lately. They’ve got some playmakers on that side of the ball, so there is a bit of concern here with Mariota. Still, the $6K price is low enough for me to take a chance in the right lineup situation.

Other choices: Colin Kaepernick, SF @ Los Angeles Rams ($5,700)

Value

Jameis Winston, TB @ New Orleans Saints ($6,500) – Gosh, don’t you love it when you find these gold-like values visiting New Orleans? Let me just say: Yee-haw! I’m looking for a 20-plus fantasy point game from Winston, maybe more, so strap your helmets on folks – it’s gonna be a good one! Feel free to pass on top-of-the-line QB options if you’re aiming for Winston.

Other choices: Tyrod Taylor, BUF vs. Miami Dolphins ($5,400); Robert Griffin, III, CLE vs. San Diego Chargers ($5,100)

Over-Value

Philip Rivers, SD @ Cleveland Browns ($6,900) – Call it a gut check, call it what you wish, but I won’t be surprised one bit if the Browns get their first victory of the season against the Chargers. Living in San Diego gives me a first-line view of the Chargers and just how awful Rivers has been with 11 INTs over his last five games. No thanks. I’m not paying $6.9K for that, even against the Browns.

RUNNING BACK

Top Level

David Johnson, ARI @ Seattle Seahawks ($9,200) – Yeah, why not, I’ll list Johnson here again. He drops $900 this week and he’s just about matchup proof. If you’re spending up in cash lineups he’s your guy. Johnson only had 53 yards on the ground in Week 15, although he did score two rush TDs. Remember, DJ’s receiving skills are a major bonus and that’s why you pay up for him.

Other choices: LeSean McCoy, BUF vs. Miami Dolphins ($9,000)

Mid-Range

Todd Gurley, LA vs. San Francisco 49ers ($6,500) – You like this matchup, don’t you? Yeah, I figured as much. Gurley, along with the Rams, is one of the biggest disappointments in 2016. I still like Gurley though and think he has an outside shot of hitting 1,000 yards for the season if he ends out with two very good games rushing. I see Gurley easily surpassing his yucky 12.1 FPPG average this season – he’s well worth taking a chance on in tournament play.

Other choices: Jordan Howard, CHI vs. Washington Redskins ($6,300); Latavius Murray, OAK vs. Indianapolis Colts ($6,200)

Value

DeMarco Murray, TEN @ Jacksonville Jaguars ($7,000) – For a RB that’s netting 21.4 FPPG, you’d think he’d get a higher bump in salary. We’ll take advantage of that, won’t we? Murray is a great cash and tournament play in my book and should have some exposure to multiple lineups. You’ll regret not slotting him in – trust me.

Other choices: Jay Ajayi, MIA @ Buffalo Bills ($5,600); Doug Martin, TB @ New Orleans Saints ($5,400); Jonathan Stewart, CAR vs. Atlanta Falcons ($5,200)

Over-Value

Melvin Gordon, SD @ Cleveland Browns ($7,400) – I’m sorry, but no way I’m paying $7.4K for an injured Gordon. Yes, he may practice all week and start for the Chargers, but you could spend LESS money on DeMarco Murray or Devonta Freeman. I think this is a sucker game as well. I see the Chargers play just about every week living in bee-yoo-tiful San Diego. Yikes.

WIDE RECEIVER

Top Level

Mike Evans, TB @ New Orleans Saints ($8,500) – Evans is a must-list play here for me considering the Buccaneers will be playing in New Orleans, where the Saints defense lullaby’s itself. A Jameis Winston-Mike Evans hook up would be a smart move on your part. You have to wonder, just how many of us will be rostering the Buccaneers’ duo? That’s the only negative I see here using them for tournament play.

Other choices: T.Y. Hilton, IND @ Oakland Raiders ($7,800)

Mid-Range

Brandin Cooks, NO vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,800) – I’m not expecting Cooks to follow up last week’s incredible 40.6 fantasy point game with similar results, but I’d be very happy if Cooks gave 20-plus points for $6.8K. That’ll happen, don’t you think? I see Drew Brees looking Cooks’ way often. Don’t feel shy, go ahead and use the rascally Cooks for cash and tournament lineups.

Other choices: Amari Cooper, OAK vs. Indianapolis Colts ($6,500); Alshon Jeffery, CHI vs. Washington Redskins ($6,300); Taylor Gabriel, ATL @ Carolina Panthers ($6,200); Michael Thomas, NO vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,000)

Value

Allen Robinson, JAC vs. Tennessee Titans ($4,600) – New coach, new Allen Robinson? I wish it was that easy. Robinson does get a creampuff-matchup facing the Titans pass defense. I’m taking a chance here for tournament play. Robinson could easily put up an ugly goose-egg day, but for this price? I’ll roll the dice and hope to yell “Yahtzee”!

Other choices: Malcolm Mitchell, NE vs. New York Jets ($5,200); DeAndre Hopkins, HOU vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($5,200); Sammy Watkins, BUF vs. Miami Dolphins ($5,000)

Over-Value

Julio Jones, ATL @ Carolina Panthers ($8,100) – I don’t like to gamble on injuries when it comes to star players like Jones, so I consider him a major over-value play. Sure, he could go bananas and make many DFS owners quite happy but he’s a major gamble. At least wait until the last second if you’re deciding to use him when setting your lineups, just be wary. The only way I’d even consider Jones is for tournament play.

TIGHT END

Mid-Range

Kyle Rudolph, MIN @ Green Bay Packers ($4,900)

Value

Hunter Henry, SD @ Cleveland Browns ($3,500)

Over-Value

Jimmy Graham, SEA vs. Arizona Cardinals ($4,500)

Good luck in Week 16! Feel free to stalk me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy