DFS Three And Out 2018 Week 1

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm In:

A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

As the Sports Xchange noted, Green remains effective after totaling over 1,000 yards for the sixth time in seven seasons. But he turned 30 during training camp and is coming off a 2017 season that featured uncharacteristic drops, a fight with Jacksonville's Jalen Ramsey and continued issues connecting with Andy Dalton on deep balls. In fact, Green tied for the fewest receptions of at least 25 yards in his career by hauling in only six. In addition, Green was limited to three catches and 27 yards in last season's matchup with the Colts -- on a day when he was targeted eight times. But offensive coordinator Bill Lazor spent the offseason installing a totally revamped scheme and new receivers coach Bob Bicknell has been charged with bringing Green back to prominence (and possibly getting him to be an All-Pro for the first time in his career). So we know what the team wants. But what does the matchup dictate? In an article published earlier this week, ESPN's Mike Clay identified the "shakiest" units in the NFL. Included on that list were the Colts off-ball linebackers and their cornerbacks. In projecting Indy's defense to be among the most generous in the league in terms of points allowed, Clay wrote: "The Colts' defense is arguably the league's worst on paper, with major holes at linebacker and corner, and no clear-cut above-average units. ..." ESPN’s Matthew Berry pointed out that no team allowed more deep completions last season than the Colts, who gave up the 28th-most passing yards in the NFL. The last time Dalton faced the Colts, he finished as the third-best QB in fantasy that week. Given all this, I wouldn't be averse to stacking Green with Dalton ($5,800 on DraftKings; $6,800 on FanDuel) and I'd be fine rolling out a (currently) healthy Tyler Eifert ($3,400 on DraftKings; $5,500 on FanDuel) -- or stacking Dalton and Eifert for that matter -- given the weaknesses outlined for the Colts.

Philip Rivers, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

Let's see. ... Per the Xchange, Rivers looks around and sees a formidable running game, a line that protects him, weapons on the outside and with the return of Antonio Gates, a reliable safety valve at tight end. Headed into his 15th season, Rivers isn't trying to carry the load himself, although he could as he's coming off another 4,000-yard passing season and a newfound ability to take care of the football. With all that is at his disposal, Rivers could be primed for a big season even at this late stage of his career. And expecting him to get off to a nice start isn't out of the question. Rivers will attack a Chiefs secondary that didn't show much in the preseason. That has Rivers salivating, especially how poorly he played in two losses to the Chiefs last year. Look for Rivers to attack that pass defense through the air and the reason is two-fold. Not only does it allow the Chargers to play with a lead if successful, but it could put the Chiefs in a hole in which they are forced to pass. The Chargers would love to make the Chiefs one-dimensional and be forced to rely on the production of rookie quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the face of the Chargers' pass-rush. A poor performance from the secondary in the preseason prompted the Chiefs to sign free-agent cornerback Orlando Scandrick. The club also placed safety Daniel Sorensen on injured reserve. Strong safety Eric Berry, who hasn't practiced since Aug. 11, remains day-to-day with a sore heel. Let’s kindly suggest they still aren’t good. Better still, Rivers' price is right ($6,400 on DraftKings; $7,500 on FanDuel).

Jeremy Hill, RB, New England Patriots

How about a dart toss of the week? ESPN.com’s Mike Reiss is reporting the Patriots are planning to ease Rex Burkhead back into the mix after he missed most of August with a knee issue; Sony Michel is still limited by his tender knee. Even if they’re available, you still have to wonder how much each will have to offer. James White should have a prominent role as a receiver with Julian Edelman sidelined by suspension, but what about the rushing attack? The Patriots may have to lean on Jeremy Hill against the Texans. In fact, during an appearance with the FootballDiehards on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio earlier this week, Boston Sports Journal Patriots reporter Christopher Price suggested Hill will be very busy handling the between the tackles work. And if some of that between-the-tackles work takes place inside the five-yard line? Yeah, I’m willing to take a shot on that given the price ($3,300 on DraftKings; $4,600 on FanDuel).

I'm Out

Odell Beckham, WR, New York Giants

The Giants wisely kept Beckham out of preseason games to allow him time to complete his rehab from a broken ankle, which means he didn't get a lot of game-speed work with Eli Manning. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have a pair of solid cornerbacks led by A.J. Bouye, who last year finished with 24 passes defensed and six interceptions, both tied for third in the NFL, and Jalen Ramsey, who accounted for 21 pass breakups and four interceptions. So yes, I'm intrigued by the talk about the team using Beckham in a variety of ways in different formations and I'm eager to see how new head coach Pat Shurmur and offensive coordinator Mike Shula go about getting their star wideout into the best possible matchups. But given his price ($7,000 on DraftKings; $7,800 on FanDuel), I'll go ahead and see how this one plays out before I go all in on OBJ.