DFS Three And Out 2016 week 1

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm in

Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders
Yes, New Orleans' defense was as bad against the run as they were against the pass last season. The Saints ranked 31st in the league in pass defense last season while giving up 284 yards per game. They also ranked 31st against the run (giving up 129 yards per game). But I'm hoping the Saints offense can generate sufficient points to force Oakland's hand. And even if Latavius Murray gets cooking, who's to say Carr and his receivers won't handle the scoring work? Carr threw for 3,987 yards, 32 touchdowns and posted a 91.1 passer rating in 2015, helping the Raiders improve from 3-13 in 2014 to 7-9. He's been on the rise and could get better as he continues to master coordinator Bill Musgrave's system and develops more continuity with a supporting cast that features wide receiver Amari Cooper. Given the matchup, feel free to stack Carr ($7,300 on DraftKings, $7,700 on FanDuel) with the Oakland receiver of your choice, whether it be Cooper, Michael Crabtree or tight end Clive Walford.

Marvin Jones, WR, Detroit Lions
Meanwhile, as Detroit Free Press beat man Dave Birkett suggested this week, this is as good a time as ever to play your Lions wideouts. Jones and Tate will be co-No. 1 receivers for the Lions this year, with Tate probably leading the team in catches (think another 80-plus) and Jones doing the bulk of the work downfield (1,100 yards is attainable if he stays healthy). Jones, who spent the last four seasons playing in A.J. Green’s shadow in Cincinnati, had a nice preseason and this week he and the rest of the Lions get a banged up Colts secondary that will be without its best cornerback (Vontae Davis) and fellow corner Darius Butler, who is dealing with an ankle injury of his own. That leaves the team with the newly acquired Antonio Cromartie to start across from Patrick Robinson while fellow new arrivals Rashaan Melvin and Darryl Morris round out the cornerback group for Week 1. Remember, as ESPN pointed out, the Colts averaged the sixth most fantasy points allowed to receivers last year, and given the Lions’ propensity to pass out of their new no-huddle offense and the likelihood this will be a high-scoring affair -- Andrew Luck is making his return from a down 2015 season for the Colts -- both the Lions passing attack could be in for big games Sunday. So while I'm rolling Jones ($4,600 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel), you shouldn't hesitate to go with Tate, Eric Ebron (though both are officially listed as questionable), Theo Riddick and/or Matthew Stafford as the mood moves you.

Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills
As the Sports Xchange notes, Watkins was coddled throughout the offseason and preseason as he recovered from foot surgery, but he says he is 100 percent healthy and ready to go. The Bills will look to run, but the Ravens aren't particularly strong in the secondary, coming off a season in which they intercepted a league-low six passes, so QB Tyrod Taylor with a better grasp of the playbook will try to exploit Baltimore through the air with Watkins and TE Charles Clay. Ravens CB Jimmy Smith can be a boom or bust type of corner, so Watkins may be able to get deep for a big play or two, especially if the Bills establish the run game and draw the safeties into the box. And of all the players I consider top-tier fantasy receivers (and if you're not sure Watkins fits that bill, check his stats over the last nine weeks of the 2015 season: 49 catches, 900 yards and seven touchdowns with more than 100 yards receiving in five of those final nine games and over 80 yards receiving in the final six games), only Oakland's Amari Cooper ($7,200 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel) is as reasonably-priced as Watkins ($6,900 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel). And yes. Play Cooper too (see above).

I'm Out

Jeremy Hill, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
So yeah. I'm all in on a rebound season for Hill. There's plenty of room for improvement. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Hill averaged just 1.46 yards after contact last season. That average ranked him behind 42 other NFL running backs, including teammate Giovani Bernard. Whenever he would be hit during his rookie season, Hill went on to gain another 2.29 yards per carry. That yards-after-contact average ranked fourth in the NFL. In addition, whereas Hill had 11 carries of 15 or more yards in 2014, he had only four such rushes in 2015. Hill did have a career-high 11 rushing touchdowns in 2015, though all but two of them came in goal-line territory. Hill's five lost fumbles in 2015 were also problematic. But I think there will be a renewed emphasis on the run in Cincy this year. So over the course of the season, I expect something closer to the rookie Hill than the sophomore Hill. Except this week. Because the Jets are tough. As ESPN.com noted this week, New York ranked as a top-five defense in terms of fewest rush attempts against, fewest yards per carry and fewest rushing touchdowns allowed. They also allowed just four rushing touchdowns on 53 attempts inside the red zone, the best of any time in the NFL last year. So all in on Hill ($4,600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel) -- starting next week (when I'm hoping a poor showing this week drives his price down even further).