DFS 3 and OUT 2017 WEEK 9

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm in:

Jared Goff, QB, Los Angeles Rams As ESPN's Field Yates put it, "If you'd like to pay down on quarterback in Week 9, Goff seems like the shrewd move. ..." Hard to argue the point. The Rams return from a bye to face the New York Giants, who over their past four games have allowed 1,318 passing yards and 10 passing touchdowns. And New York's secondary will be without its top cover man. Cornerback Janoris Jenkins was suspended by the team indefinitely on Tuesday for failing to report back to work after the end of the bye, which leaves them down a starting cornerback for this one. With Jenkins out, the Giants will have Eli Apple, Ross Cockrell and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who served a team-issued suspension of his own, as their top cornerbacks. Goff, meanwhile, has made great strides in Year 2 of his NFL career and, as Yates pointed out, he has enough weapons to make good on the modest investment ($5500 on DraftKings; $7600 on FanDuel) that will allow you to pay up at other positions. Adding to the fun, no defense has given up more TDs to tight ends than New York and Goff will be throwing to a pair of the cheapest at the position in Tyler Higbee ($2800 on DraftKings; $4500 on FanDuel) and Gerald Everett ($2600 on DraftKings; $4500on FanDuel).

Alex Collins, RB, Baltimore Ravens Collins has been the best playmaker on Baltimore's offense since being signed off the practice squad in late September. Collins had his best game against the Dolphins, running for a career-high 113 yards on 18 carries. Baltimore has the league's fifth-ranked rushing offense and Collins ranks ninth among all running backs with 478 yards. He also leads the NFL in carries that have gone for 15 or more yards (10). As ESPN.com's Matt Bowen noted, Collins plays fast and he has the footwork to slip by tacklers at the second level. And given the relative weakness of the Ravens' passing attack, this offense has to lean on the ground game to stay ahead on schedule. In addition, the Titans are giving up an average of 22 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. All of which makes Collins all but irresistible at his price ($4600 on DraftKings; $5900 on FanDuel) this week.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Heading into his first start since Carson Palmer went down with a broken left arm in London two weeks ago, the Cardinals will want to make sure they put Drew Stanton in as many stress-free situations as they can. And how do they accomplish that? "Feed the beast," offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin. "The Beast" Goodwin refers to would be Peterson. As ESPN's Matthew Berry pointed out, since joining the Cardinals in Week 6, Peterson has 78.7 percent of Arizona's rushing attempts, the third-highest percentage in the league in that time frame. That's not going to diminish this weekend. "It's like an old stove," Goodwin explained. "The more wood you put in it, the hotter it gets. We've just got to make sure we feed him the ball so he can get comfortable." That approach is understandable. Stanton has a 6-3 record in games started with the Cardinals since 2014, most likely because Arizona has tended to shade more towards the running game with Stanton under center. With Palmer, the Cards average 38.5 run plays per game, but that number rises to 44.2 when Stanton starts. Peterson dashed for 134 yards in his first start with Arizona, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. He was stymied in his second, going for 21 yards and 1.9 yards per carry. But he goes up against the 49ers this week and San Francisco's defense is giving up an NFL-high 32 points per game to opposing running backs. In fact, as ESPN's Matthew Berry pointed out, six running backs have gotten 15 or more carries against San Francisco this season. Those backs averaged 22.7 fantasy points per game. He's not a bargain-basement play this week, but the price ($5600 on DraftKings; $6800 on FanDuel) is more affordable that it should be given the matchup. The volume alone would make him of some interest at that price; the matchup adds to the intrigue.

I'm Out

Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles This one is all about the matchup. The Broncos lead the league in total defense, allowing 261 yards per game. They rank second in rushing defense, allowing 72.9 yards per game. They rank sixth in passing defense, allowing 188.1 yards per game, and they rediscovered their turnover touch with two takeaways against the Chiefs on Monday night. Denver's defense is one of two in the NFL that ranks in the league's top six in passing and rushing defense. The Broncos have allowed exactly one offensive touchdown in three of their last four games, and permitted two in the other. And through seven games, the Broncos haven't allowed a rushing touchdown. Yes, Philadelphia's offense is potent and balanced, with Wentz hitting three different targets for 27 or more receptions halfway through the season. In addition, when Wentz throws it, more often than not it's to tight end Zach Ertz, who is fifth in the league in receptions and leads the league in red-zone TD catches. Which would be great, since if the Broncos have a weakness on defense, it's stopping opposing tight ends. But Ertz was added to the injury report on Thursday with a hamstring issue. In addition, the Broncos' offense is struggling mightily at the moment, as they have not been able to score 20 points in any game since Week 2. With the Eagles' defense playing as well as it is, PhillyVoice.com's Jimmy Kempski believes the Eagles' offense should consider playing conservatively this week. Wentz's price this week ($6100 on DraftKings; $8000 on FanDuel) isn't totally prohibitive, but I'll be looking for better matchups.