DFS 3 and OUT 2017 WEEK 1

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris

Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm in:

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals As ESPN's Mike Clay pointed out this week, Detroit's Darius Slay is a top-end shadow corner, but he lined up in the slot only four percent of the time last year. Detroit actually allowed the second-most fantasy points to slot receivers last season and will again roll with Quandre Diggs inside after he fended off former Raider D.J. Hayden for the gig. Fitzgerald ($5900 on DraftKings; $6400 on Fanduel) lined up inside on 63 percent of his routes in 2017 and should see Diggs on most of those routes this weekend. But wait, it gets better. ESPN's Matthew Berry notes that opponents completed 81 percent of passes thrown less than 10 yards downfield against Detroit last season. No other team has allowed a completion percentage higher than 77.3 percent on such passes during the past 15 seasons. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer is fully healthy and the threat of a strong rushing attack behind David Johnson makes it even harder for opponents to focus on other aspects of the offense.

Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans Yes, Corey Davis and Eric Decker are the shiny new weapons brought in to aid Marcus Mariota's ongoing ascent to stardom. But both were hurt in recent weeks (with Davis missing almost all of August and Decker the final two weeks of the month. Walker, meanwhile, is coming off his second straight Pro-Bowl season and is still a go-to guy in the passing game. The Raiders have really struggled against tight ends in recent memory. In fact, the Raiders allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends last season. So with Mariota less familiar (and less comfortable) with Davis and Decker, Walker ($4300 on DraftKings; $6100 on Fanduel) is the most likely beneficiary of red zone looks (although scoring touchdowns is one of Decker's strengths). Whatever the case, Mariota's work in the red-zone is worth noting here: Per Berry, Mariota has 33 touchdowns and zero interceptions from inside the 20-yard line. Opponents turned 57.9 percent of red zone drives into touchdowns against the Raiders last season (ninth-highest rate). You could do worse at this spot.

Robby Anderson, WR, New York Jets ESPN.com's Rich Cimini believes Anderson has the most fantasy value among the Jets rather limited group of receiving threats because he knows the system and has developed a rapport with QB Josh McCown. In fact, during a recent appearance with the FootballDiehards on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, Cimini predicted that Anderson could get eight to 10 targets a week. Given his current price ($3800 on DraftKings; $5200 on Fanduel), Anderson is a steal. Seriously. On Fanduel, Anderson is cheaper than newly-signed teammate Jeremy Kerley (who's had all of three practices with McCown this week), Carolina's Curtis Samuel, a rookie coming off an injury-marred August, Marquise Goodwin, San Francisco's No. 2 man, and Kamar Aiken, thrust into the Colts WR3 spot due to a Chester Rogers injury and Phillip Dorsett's trade to New England just this week.

I'm Out

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts This one isn't difficult to figur out kids. The bottom line? Andrew Luck is out. And Luck's absence really impacts Hilton. As ESPN.com's Mike Wells notes, the speedy receiver has averaged 1.5 fewer targets and 17 fewer receiving yards a game in the 10 games that Luck has missed in his career. On a per-game basis without Luck, Hilton produced as a fantasy WR4. He wouldn't have broken your season-long lineup in this one. Now he heads into a Week 1 matchup with the Rams in Los Angeles with Scott Tolzien as his triggerman. As Wells further suggested, if the preseason was any indication, the Colts won't be looking to stretch the field. They'll look more for quick-rhythm throws from Tolzien. This benefits Donte Moncrief and Jack Doyle. It's not great news for Hilton ($6900 on DraftKings; $8000 on Fanduel), who still finds himself as the sixth (Fanduel) and ninth (DraftKings) most expensive wideout available. In one game last year with Tolzien starting for Luck in Week 12 against Pittsburgh, Hilton had three catches for 54 yards on five targets. According to CBSSports.com, Hilton has played 10 games without Luck the past two seasons, and he only has 41 catches for 630 yards and two touchdowns over that span. Spend up elsewhere at this position.