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TheHunterReport DFS Week 13 2016
By Dave Hunter
Rather than focusing on the misery of Week 12, I’m immediately moving to Week 13. NFL DFS just hasn’t been kind to me this season, mainly since I’m taking far too many risks with my lineups. Right, right, you have to be risky and contrarian when all you play is GPP. I know that, so it comes with the territory, although the smart move is to offset my GPP plays with solid cash lineups; however, I’m just not that kind of a player. The allure of the GPP is all that I need, so if I don’t cash I’m okay with it. Well, I deal with it, I should say. Again, I always seem to suggest great options each week with this piece. It’s cutting the options down for a lineup that counts though.
My plan is to enter a few lineups into the DraftKings NFL $1.1M Play-Action [$1,100,000], which has a $3 entry fee, but I might sneak in a $27 entry into the NFL $3.5 Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Good luck in Week 13!
Drew Brees, NO vs. Detroit Lions ($7,600) – If you want the consistency of a dominant performance each week (26.1 FPG on DraftKings), Brees is your guy. Brees gets the Lions, a team that has a very difficult time stopping the pass. We should see 3 TD passes from Brees, unless the Lions step things up. I don’t see that, however, so feel free to lock Brees in for cash lineups. You’ll have to take a hit hard at WR or RB if you want Brees in for GPP lineups.
Other choices: Tom Brady, NE vs. Los Angeles Rams ($7,500); Matthew Stafford, DET @ New Orleans ($7,000)
Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. Houston Texans ($6,700) – This is the lowest price we’ve seen Rodgers all year. I’m fairly certain it has to do with the over-dramatic-mysterious-tent-hamstring-taping incident that went on during Monday night’s matchup against the Eagles. Meaning: there’s concern with Rodgers and his injury and whether he’ll be worth the risk, hence the lowered price tag. I, myself, am jumping all over Rodgers. The matchup isn’t the greatest as the Texans are solid against the pass, but I expect Rodgers to be good to go for Sunday’s game and for him to net close to 300 yards and 2 TD passes – maybe more.
Other choices: Philip Rivers, SD vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,500); Kirk Cousins, WAS @ Arizona Cardinals ($6,400); Russell Wilson, SEA vs. Carolina Panthers ($6,300) – GPP only.
Tyrod Taylor, BUF @ Oakland Raiders ($5,700) – The Raiders defense is susceptible to a guy like Taylor, due to his dual threat as a runner and a passer. The Raiders have their moments on defense, but I see the Bills scoring enough to make this game very interesting. I’ve got Taylor pegged for 250 yards passing, 60 yards rushing and two scores – not bad for $5.7K. The passing yards may be a reach but I’ve got Taylor putting up one of his best performances against the Raiders.
Other choices: Alex Smith, KC @ Atlanta Falcons ($5,400)
Colin Kaepernick, SF @ Chicago Bears ($6,100) – Maybe if Kaepernick was below $6K I’d think about using him. I just can’t justify it in a game that will likely be pretty bland. I see a defensive battle here anyway. Plus, you can do better than Kaepernick around this price range.
David Johnson, ARI vs. Washington Redskins ($9,500) – Can we say “monster”? Yep, that describes Johnson perfectly with his 27.3 FPPG average on DraftKings. What more can this guy do? Of course, the issue is paying his $9.5K price tag. I’m quite okay with it, actually, in the right lineup. I see Johnson earning his salary, so go ahead and pay up. Don’t worry about his recently dislocated finger facing the Redskins porous defense.
Other choices: Le'Veon Bell, PIT vs. New York Giants ($9,200)
Jordan Howard, CHI vs. San Francisco 49ers ($6,900) – This is all about the matchup for me. I don’t expect a ton of points in this game, but Howard will be the focus of the Bears offense. He’s good for at least 20 rushes and a TD score. If you’re not spending up at RB, Howard is a decent GPP risk.
Other choices: Spencer Ware, KC @ Atlanta Falcons ($6,400); Mark Ingram, NO vs. Detroit Lions ($6,000)
LeSean McCoy, BUF @ Oakland Raiders ($7,800) – Finding DFS value isn’t about the price – it’s about expected output vs. salary. Man, I LOVE McCoy this week facing the Raiders in a high-scoring affair. Expect at least 100 yards rushing and 1 TD, but you also have to consider McCoy’s receiving ability out of the backfield. Boom!
Other choices: Theo Riddick, DET @ New Orleans Saints ($5,800); LeGarrette Blount, NE vs. Los Angeles Rams ($5,500); Tim Hightower, NO vs. Detroit Lions ($4,800); Rashad Jennings, NYG @ Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,800)
Melvin Gordon, SD vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,200) – Since Gordon’s Week 9 explosion, where he gave DFS owners 39.1 points, he’s been in steady decline. Sure, Gordon can give owners another explosion week but don’t expect it. And, at $7.2K, you can find better production for your dollars spent.
Julio Jones, ATL vs. Kansas City Chiefs ($8,700) – That’s four weeks this season for Jones where he has completely disappeared, including last week against the Cardinals. I’m talking about nothing for those weeks, with Jones giving practically zilch to owners (7.5 points or less in those weeks). What about this week? Fantasy redemption is in order, with Jones taking advantage of a Chiefs pass defense that is one of the worst in the league. The price is a bit iffy, although Jones ranks right up there with Antonio Brown and Mike Evans in Week 13. Don’t be afraid to lock him in, even with his disappearing act at times.
Other choices: Mike Evans, TB @ San Diego Chargers ($8,600); Odell Beckham, Jr., NYG @ Pittsburgh Steelers ($8,500)
Doug Baldwin, SEA vs. Carolina Panthers ($6,400) – I dig the matchup and I love Baldwin’s targets to continue. Look for Baldwin to net 8-10 looks in the Seahawks offense, pulling down half those targets with some excellent yardage and a TD score.
Other choices: Demaryius Thomas, DEN @ Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,600); Davante Adams, GB vs. Houston Texans ($6,300); DeAndre Hopkins, HOU @ Green Bay Packers ($6,000)
Allen Robinson, JAC vs. Denver Broncos ($5,800) – I know the matchup is awful for Robinson and the Jaguars. Plus, the Jags play in Denver – not good. I just can’t pass up the $5.8K price tag we’re seeing here. I mean, Blake Bortles must throw the ball in this game. The Jags have no real running game to speak of; Allen Hurns is hurting and Marqise Lee will see tighter coverage. A-Rob has been disappointing this season, right along with the rest of the Jags offense, but we’ll see A-Rob more than earn his price.
Other choices: Sammy Watkins, BUF @ Oakland Raiders ($5,500); Jarvis Landry, MIA @ Baltimore Ravens ($5,400); Tyreek Hill, KC @ Atlanta Falcons ($4,600); Taylor Gabriel, ATL vs. Kansas City Chiefs ($4,000)
Brandin Cooks, NO vs. Detroit Lions ($6,400) – I’m not willing to spend the salary on Cooks without knowing more about why he was not targeted in last week’s game against the Rams. I’m sure Cooks will bounce back, right? I won’t be surprised if he does, although I’m not slotting him into my lineups as of now. Michael Thomas is taking charge in the Saints passing game and there are other, more reliable options right now.
Jordan Reed, WAS @ Arizona Cardinals ($6,400) – Look for injury news leading up to game time.
Jimmy Graham, SEA vs. Carolina Panthers ($5,500)
Greg Olsen, CAR @ Seattle Seahawks ($5,100)
Travis Kelce, KC @ Atlanta Falcons ($4,700)
Tyler Eifert, CIN vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($5,300)
Good luck in Week 13! Feel free to stalk me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy