crystal ball week 15 2016

By Evan Tarracciano
Evan Tarracciano Letdown. Disappointment. Heartache. Infuriating.

Those were a few words which aptly summed up the first week of the Fantasy Football playoffs for many owners, and with good reason – a number of superstars fell woefully short of their projections, causing teams to face a quick hook.

Of the top 10 quarterbacks, only three threw for more than two touchdowns – Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Tom Brady. Of the remaining seven players, five failed to crack more than 15 points, including Matthew Stafford, Marcus Mariota, Dak Prescott and Derek Carr. Drew Brees managed to go negative in many leagues.

At running back, Matt Forte and Melvin Gordon were both injured early, while Devonta Freeman, Mark Ingram, Jay Ajayi and Spencer Ware flopped. Wide receivers also struggled, with Julio Jones a late scratch, and Mike Evans, Larry Fitzgerald and Amari Cooper all posting stinkers.

Simply put? It was a rough week for all involved. Touts made by many analysts didn’t perform as expected, and while fringe FLEX plays broke out. Although these words will fall on plenty of deaf ears, may I be the first to say that I understand the frustration that owners felt, as it affected me as well.

While we can’t change the past, we can look forward to the future and learn from our mistakes. Be it due to matchups or bad luck, let’s all cross our fingers and hope that Week 14’s heartbreak isn’t repeated.

If you haven’t already joined me for my video Q&A sessions each Tuesday evening at 8 PM EST, I’d highly encourage you to do so! I’ve received a lot of positive feedback as to my thoughts and the layout – hopefully listeners are enjoying it as much as I am running it! This article serves as a supplementary piece to what I covered in this week’s chat, expanding on some of the more “hot button” topics that I received a lot of traffic on. Check out all of my prior videos and meet me for each new one here:

https://www.facebook.com/FootballDieHards/

Q: This is my first time making the playoffs in Fantasy Football – should I treat this week any differently than those in the regular season?
A: No, not necessarily. If you were a savvy enough owner to make it this far along, I’m sure that you know what you are doing at this point – or should just keep riding the gravy train of good luck! Sure, things are no doubt magnified – most leagues operate on the “one and done” philosophy, which makes every FLEX slot more valuable, every matchup more scrutinized, and every player more crucial. My best advice? Take extra time to scour your league’s waiver wire and see if there are any relevant players worth sniping. If you are projected to have a close contest with the other owner, favor players with a higher floor. If you are projected to be a major underdog, consider players that have a higher ceiling. Perhaps the most important part? Read our website daily! In addition to this column and many others by our fantastic staff, Bob Harris updates owners with all the latest news and notes – stay on top of things!

Q: I’m happy to see Doug Martin back and getting the lion’s share of carries, but he has been brutal since his Week 10 return. Is there room for improvement? Is he still a RB2?
A: Based upon Martin’s volume alone, he still qualifies as an RB2 in most formats. In three of the past five starts he has at least 23 rushing attempts, and he has found the end zone three times. Owners might not ever see the same back that Martin was in 2012 or 2015, but his involvement in the team’s offense can’t be questioned. With that in mind, one has to wonder if the coaching staff will continue to let the offense flow through him quite this much. His 3.0 YPC is the lowest of his career, and he isn’t being targeted as much in the passing game as in the past, largely in part due to the return of Charles Sims coupled with the effectiveness of Jacquizz Rodgers. He has a relatively high floor of 9-12 PPR points, but counting on much more than that would be foolish.

Q: Is Cam Newton still a no-doubt start every week? He’s been dreadful.
A: For the first time in recent memory, Newton ranks outside of the top 15 at the QB position, even with his rushing attempts still averaging over five per game. So what gives? Perhaps the most obvious culprit is his receiving core, which is downright dreadful. Greg Olsen is the team’s lone threat in the passing game, given the injuries and mental lapses that Kelvin Benjamin has suffered from, coupled with the inconsistency of Ted Ginn Jr.. Of late, the Panthers have also become more comfortable providing Jonathan Stewart with goal line carries (especially over the past four games, where he has four touchdowns). Newton hasn’t been impressive, and his body language suggests that he’s quite frustrated. He does have two plus-matchups upcoming in the Washington Redskins and Atlanta Falcons, so I wouldn’t rule him out yet from cracking the top 10 at the end of 2016.

Q: Nice call on Kenneth Dixon this season – I’ve been patiently stashing him and last week he finally went off! Is he the new lead back in Baltimore? Or was this just a one week fluke?
A: Would it be odd if I answered “yes” to both of those questions? First and foremost, I do believe that he’s firmly overtaken the starting role in Baltimore over Terrance West. He’s seen an increase in touches steadily since Week 9, and during that timeframe anyone watching game tape would notice that he’s the more powerful runner of the two. Last weekend against the New England Patriots Dixon was in the backfield the vast majority of the time. Part of that was due to the Ravens playing from behind since the coin toss (Dixon is the better receiving option of the two players), and it was also caused by New England’s defense, which eliminated all down field throws for Joe Flacco, forcing him to continually dump the ball off to his running backs. Will we see the same split in Week 15? I don’t believe so, but Dixon should still be on the field for more than 60 percent of the snaps while also receiving the majority of touches. He’s a low-end RB2 option.

Q: I’m done with Mark Ingram.
A: Join the club! I had a haircut this afternoon and saw firsthand at all the grey hairs he’s caused me in 2016. I’m officially salt-and-pepper thanks to him.

Q: Malcolm Mitchell is a top ____ receiver in Week 15?
A: Right now I have Mitchell ranked as my 35th receiver in Week 15, which places him in the WR3 territory. His upside is tremendous, but due to New England using the “whoever is open will get the ball” philosophy, coupled with their balanced attack, it puts a severe cap on how many targets Mitchell will receive each week. He’s been fantastic lately, but expecting more than 15 points in a PPR may be a bit too much, especially considering that the Patriots are taking on the Denver Broncos, who have the best secondary in the league.

Waiver-Wire choices



A quick note from the Wizard: Before I dive into my waiver wire players this week, let me start off by saying that this is a particularly scare week for relevant options who are owned in less than 20-25 percent of leagues. Certain league formats also limit waiver-wire moves as the playoffs start, so before you research who is available or drop any FAAB on them, make sure to check on your league’s specific ruleset.

Quarterback:


Trevor Siemian (Denver Broncos) – Anyone else surprised to see Colin Kaepernick NOT atop this list for the first time in a few weeks? Siemian faces the New England Patriots in Week 15, and while that may not be the best matchup on paper, it will present significant opportunity for him to post plenty of second-half numbers, presenting garbage time points. Similar to last week against the Tennessee Titans, I expect the Broncos to be playing from behind perpetually in this contest, which suggest that Siemian’s volume may reach 40-45 attempts again. In his last two starts he’s thrown for 702 yards and four touchdowns. He’s an intriguing low-end QB1 option.

Running Back:


Kenneth Farrow (San Diego Chargers) – Farrow represents my “no duh” recommendation this week. He’s going to be the number one most added player in deeper formats, due to the expectation that Melvin Gordon remains sidelined. So who is Kenneth Farrow and what kind of upside does he hold? Farrow is an undrafted rookie out of Houston with mediocre size (5’9, 219 lbs.), speed and agility. He does have excellent receiving skills, and the team isn’t hesitant to dump the ball off to him in a pinch (as evidenced by last week’s seven receptions). He will have to compete with Ronnie Hillman for touches, but in a PPR league he’s a worthy FLEX play.

Kenneth Dixon (Baltimore Ravens) – Dixon is owned in about 40-45 percent of 12 team leagues, and I’ve commented on him earlier in this article. He’s a RB2 for the remainder of the season in PPR formats, with plenty of upside. I’m continuing to beat on this drum.

Wide Receiver:


Dontrelle Inman (San Diego Chargers) – Yet another Charger makes my list. While Inman isn’t the sexiest name to throw out there, owners can’t discount his consistency, especially of late. Since Week 9, Inman has caught at least five passes in four of five games, while averaging 76 yards per outing. Additionally, he’s scored in each of the past three weeks, and has supplanted Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams as Philip Rivers’ downfield threat. The presence of so many other receivers does cap his upside, but if you are looking for 12-14 guaranteed points in a PPR format, look no further.

Robbie Anderson (New York Jets) – Sometimes you just can’t deny chemistry. Since Bryce Petty has taken over for the Jets, Anderson has been the apple of his eye, and his first read on passing plays. Does his possess the pedigree of Brandon Marshall, or the physical attributes of Eric Decker? Nope. Yet despite his ho-hum nature, Anderson has 13 receptions for 229 yards and a touchdown on 29 targets during the past three games that Petty has started. He’s available in nearly 95 percent of leagues.

Tight End:


Jermaine Gresham (Arizona Cardinals) – Before I dive into the Gresham analysis, let me preclude it with the following caveat – there are nearly zero widely available tight ends who have enough upside to include in this article. Other writers may get cute and say that Ryan Griffin is an interesting streaming option with C.J. Fiedorowicz dealing with a concussion, but Gresham is the only option available in over 80 percent of leagues with the upside of 10-12 PPR points. This position is downright brutal. Outside of Travis Kelce and Greg Olsen there are next to no consistent options available week in and week out. So why Gresham? He has enough upside given the matchup against the New Orleans Saints, coupled with an above-average quarterback in Carson Palmer. I expect this game to be a full fledged shootout, and he has a chance of vulturing a late score. He’s no more than a Hail Mary add.

Letdown. Disappointment. Heartache. Infuriating.

Those were a few words which aptly summed up the first week of the Fantasy Football playoffs for many owners, and with good reason – a number of superstars fell woefully short of their projections, causing teams to face a quick hook.

Of the top 10 quarterbacks, only three threw for more than two touchdowns – Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Tom Brady. Of the remaining seven players, five failed to crack more than 15 points, including Matthew Stafford, Marcus Mariota, Dak Prescott and Derek Carr. Drew Brees managed to go negative in many leagues.

At running back, Matt Forte and Melvin Gordon were both injured early, while Devonta Freeman, Mark Ingram, Jay Ajayi and Spencer Ware flopped. Wide receivers also struggled, with Julio Jones a late scratch, and Mike Evans, Larry Fitzgerald and Amari Cooper all posting stinkers.

Simply put? It was a rough week for all involved. Touts made by many analysts didn’t perform as expected, and while fringe FLEX plays broke out. Although these words will fall on plenty of deaf ears, may I be the first to say that I understand the frustration that owners felt, as it affected me as well.

While we can’t change the past, we can look forward to the future and learn from our mistakes. Be it due to matchups or bad luck, let’s all cross our fingers and hope that Week 14’s heartbreak isn’t repeated.

If you haven’t already joined me for my video Q&A sessions each Tuesday evening at 8 PM EST, I’d highly encourage you to do so! I’ve received a lot of positive feedback as to my thoughts and the layout – hopefully listeners are enjoying it as much as I am running it! This article serves as a supplementary piece to what I covered in this week’s chat, expanding on some of the more “hot button” topics that I received a lot of traffic on. Check out all of my prior videos and meet me for each new one here:

https://www.facebook.com/FootballDieHards/

Q: This is my first time making the playoffs in Fantasy Football – should I treat this week any differently than those in the regular season?

A: No, not necessarily. If you were a savvy enough owner to make it this far along, I’m sure that you know what you are doing at this point – or should just keep riding the gravy train of good luck! Sure, things are no doubt magnified – most leagues operate on the “one and done” philosophy, which makes every FLEX slot more valuable, every matchup more scrutinized, and every player more crucial. My best advice? Take extra time to scour your league’s waiver wire and see if there are any relevant players worth sniping. If you are projected to have a close contest with the other owner, favor players with a higher floor. If you are projected to be a major underdog, consider players that have a higher ceiling. Perhaps the most important part? Read our website daily! In addition to this column and many others by our fantastic staff, Bob Harris updates owners with all the latest news and notes – stay on top of things!

Q: I’m happy to see Doug Martin back and getting the lion’s share of carries, but he has been brutal since his Week 10 return. Is there room for improvement? Is he still a RB2?

A: Based upon Martin’s volume alone, he still qualifies as an RB2 in most formats. In three of the past five starts he has at least 23 rushing attempts, and he has found the end zone three times. Owners might not ever see the same back that Martin was in 2012 or 2015, but his involvement in the team’s offense can’t be questioned. With that in mind, one has to wonder if the coaching staff will continue to let the offense flow through him quite this much. His 3.0 YPC is the lowest of his career, and he isn’t being targeted as much in the passing game as in the past, largely in part due to the return of Charles Sims coupled with the effectiveness of Jacquizz Rodgers. He has a relatively high floor of 9-12 PPR points, but counting on much more than that would be foolish.

Q: Is Cam Newton still a no-doubt start every week? He’s been dreadful.

A: For the first time in recent memory, Newton ranks outside of the top 15 at the QB position, even with his rushing attempts still averaging over five per game. So what gives? Perhaps the most obvious culprit is his receiving core, which is downright dreadful. Greg Olsen is the team’s lone threat in the passing game, given the injuries and mental lapses that Kelvin Benjamin has suffered from, coupled with the inconsistency of Ted Ginn Jr.. Of late, the Panthers have also become more comfortable providing Jonathan Stewart with goal line carries (especially over the past four games, where he has four touchdowns). Newton hasn’t been impressive, and his body language suggests that he’s quite frustrated. He does have two plus-matchups upcoming in the Washington Redskins and Atlanta Falcons, so I wouldn’t rule him out yet from cracking the top 10 at the end of 2016.

Q: Nice call on Kenneth Dixon this season – I’ve been patiently stashing him and last week he finally went off! Is he the new lead back in Baltimore? Or was this just a one week fluke?

A: Would it be odd if I answered “yes” to both of those questions? First and foremost, I do believe that he’s firmly overtaken the starting role in Baltimore over Terrance West. He’s seen an increase in touches steadily since Week 9, and during that timeframe anyone watching game tape would notice that he’s the more powerful runner of the two. Last weekend against the New England Patriots Dixon was in the backfield the vast majority of the time. Part of that was due to the Ravens playing from behind since the coin toss (Dixon is the better receiving option of the two players), and it was also caused by New England’s defense, which eliminated all down field throws for Joe Flacco, forcing him to continually dump the ball off to his running backs. Will we see the same split in Week 15? I don’t believe so, but Dixon should still be on the field for more than 60 percent of the snaps while also receiving the majority of touches. He’s a low-end RB2 option.

Q: I’m done with Mark Ingram.

A: Join the club! I had a haircut this afternoon and saw firsthand at all the grey hairs he’s caused me in 2016. I’m officially salt-and-pepper thanks to him.

Q: Malcolm Mitchell is a top ____ receiver in Week 15?

A: Right now I have Mitchell ranked as my 35th receiver in Week 15, which places him in the WR3 territory. His upside is tremendous, but due to New England using the “whoever is open will get the ball” philosophy, coupled with their balanced attack, it puts a severe cap on how many targets Mitchell will receive each week. He’s been fantastic lately, but expecting more than 15 points in a PPR may be a bit too much, especially considering that the Patriots are taking on the Denver Broncos, who have the best secondary in the league.

Waiver-Wire choices

A quick note from the Wizard: Before I dive into my waiver wire players this week, let me start off by saying that this is a particularly scare week for relevant options who are owned in less than 20-25 percent of leagues. Certain league formats also limit waiver-wire moves as the playoffs start, so before you research who is available or drop any FAAB on them, make sure to check on your league’s specific ruleset.

Quarterback:

Trevor Siemian (Denver Broncos) – Anyone else surprised to see Colin Kaepernick NOT atop this list for the first time in a few weeks? Siemian faces the New England Patriots in Week 15, and while that may not be the best matchup on paper, it will present significant opportunity for him to post plenty of second-half numbers, presenting garbage time points. Similar to last week against the Tennessee Titans, I expect the Broncos to be playing from behind perpetually in this contest, which suggest that Siemian’s volume may reach 40-45 attempts again. In his last two starts he’s thrown for 702 yards and four touchdowns. He’s an intriguing low-end QB1 option.

Running Back:

Kenneth Farrow (San Diego Chargers) – Farrow represents my “no duh” recommendation this week. He’s going to be the number one most added player in deeper formats, due to the expectation that Melvin Gordon remains sidelined. So who is Kenneth Farrow and what kind of upside does he hold? Farrow is an undrafted rookie out of Houston with mediocre size (5’9, 219 lbs.), speed and agility. He does have excellent receiving skills, and the team isn’t hesitant to dump the ball off to him in a pinch (as evidenced by last week’s seven receptions). He will have to compete with Ronnie Hillman for touches, but in a PPR league he’s a worthy FLEX play.

Kenneth Dixon (Baltimore Ravens) – Dixon is owned in about 40-45 percent of 12 team leagues, and I’ve commented on him earlier in this article. He’s a RB2 for the remainder of the season in PPR formats, with plenty of upside. I’m continuing to beat on this drum.

Wide Receiver:

Dontrelle Inman (San Diego Chargers) – Yet another Charger makes my list. While Inman isn’t the sexiest name to throw out there, owners can’t discount his consistency, especially of late. Since Week 9, Inman has caught at least five passes in four of five games, while averaging 76 yards per outing. Additionally, he’s scored in each of the past three weeks, and has supplanted Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams as Philip Rivers’ downfield threat. The presence of so many other receivers does cap his upside, but if you are looking for 12-14 guaranteed points in a PPR format, look no further.

Robbie Anderson (New York Jets) – Sometimes you just can’t deny chemistry. Since Bryce Petty has taken over for the Jets, Anderson has been the apple of his eye, and his first read on passing plays. Does his possess the pedigree of Brandon Marshall, or the physical attributes of Eric Decker? Nope. Yet despite his ho-hum nature, Anderson has 13 receptions for 229 yards and a touchdown on 29 targets during the past three games that Petty has started. He’s available in nearly 95 percent of leagues.

Tight End:

Jermaine Gresham (Arizona Cardinals) – Before I dive into the Gresham analysis, let me preclude it with the following caveat – there are nearly zero widely available tight ends who have enough upside to include in this article. Other writers may get cute and say that Ryan Griffin is an interesting streaming option with C.J. Fiedorowicz dealing with a concussion, but Gresham is the only option available in over 80 percent of leagues with the upside of 10-12 PPR points. This position is downright brutal. Outside of Travis Kelce and Greg Olsen there are next to no consistent options available week in and week out. So why Gresham? He has enough upside given the matchup against the New Orleans Saints, coupled with an above-average quarterback in Carson Palmer. I expect this game to be a full fledged shootout, and he has a chance of vulturing a late score. He’s no more than a Hail Mary add.