Stack Em Up DraftKings Week 10 2018

Week 10 Stack Em Up – DraftKings
By: Armando Marsal

If you look at most winning lineups at the end of each slate, many if not most of them will have a stack. For those who are not familiar with what stacking means, let’s define what we are calling a stack. Stacking is pairing multiple players from one team. In this instance I will be referring to a quarterback and one of his receivers, tight ends, or running backs. When you pair up a quarterback with one of his pass catchers, you are increasing upside. Generally you want to pair up a signal caller with his primary receiver, but at times, you can change that approach depending on matchups, potential game script, or any other variable that can have an impact on your decision making. Each week I’ll go over some of my favorite stacks and provide you with multiple ways to approach the stack, as well as give you my favorite option. That said, let’s jump right into it and go over my top stacks on the main slate this week.
 

Cincinnati Bengals

Game Over/Under: 54
Team Implied Points: 24.5
Sunday’s can be stressful at times when rostering Andy Dalton $5,800, but this is one of those weeks where it sets up to be a good situation for him. He faces off against a Saints defense that ranks 29th in DVOA against the pass and is yielding 325 passing yards per game. New Orleans has given up 2,601 passing yards (4th most) and 18 passing touchdowns (tied 4th most) to opposing signal callers this season, while surrendering the second most DKFP per game (27.5). The Saints are favored in this contest by a decent amount, considering they are on the road, so I expect the Bengals to be chasing points and be forced to pass a bit more than we are used to seeing. In addition, the Saints have been stout against the run, so the best way to beat them is through the air. There are some red flags here that concern me – A.J. Green will not play, which is a big blow to Dalton, and the Saints can run the ball effectively, potentially controlling the clock, which could limit the amount of time the Bengals offense is on the field. That said, I still think this will be a back and forth game with plenty of scoring, and I totally expect for Dalton to sling it in this contest.

Tyler Boyd $7,500 is going to be forced fed this weekend and draws a great matchup. Since A.J. Green is sitting this one out, I expect upwards of 10 targets for Boyd, especially in this game environment. He draws a one-on-one matchup against P.J. Williams, who grades out as one of the worst corners per PFF, and a matchup that Boyd has a 41 percent advantage rating in (highest of the week). The Saints defense is yielding the most fantasy points per game to wide outs (51.8), and has allowed 1,790 receiving yards (most in the NFL) and 14 receiving touchdowns (tied for most in the NFL) to the position. Boyd should capitalize in this matchup and be able to put together a nice performance. He has displayed some nice upside throughout the season, eclipsing 25 DKFP multiple times already. Whether you are stacking Boyd with Dalton this week or not, he is one of my favorite plays on the slate.

Secondary Options: I contemplated adding Joe Mixon as a primary option for a Bengals stack because he is third on the team in targets with 28 (10 percent), but I respect this Saints defense against opposing backs. That being said, Mixon is a viable secondary option this week because the usage should be there and his red zone involvement gives him nice touchdown equity. You can also consider C.J. Uzomah in this contest, as the game environment is a favorable one, and he should see an increased workload this week with Green out. John Ross is an interesting tournament flier, as he has displayed the ability to be a big play maker at times and should slot into the No. 2 WR duties this week.

My favorite option: Dalton/Boyd
 

Cleveland Browns

Game Over/Under: 50.5
Team Implied Points: 22
Baker Mayfield $5,400 looked more comfortable last week and this new coaching staff appears to be putting him in a better situation to succeed in. Last week he completed 69 percent of his passes, which was his highest completion percentage since Week 3 against the Jets. This week he draws a favorable matchup at home against Atlanta who ranks 28th in DVOA against the pass. The Falcons have allowed 2,535 passing yards (6th most) and 18 passing touchdowns (tied 4th most) to opposing signal callers, while surrendering the third most DKFP per game to the position (27). The Browns should be chasing points in this one, according to the Vegas numbers, so this is a favorable game environment for Cleveland’s passing game. He has let us down in good spots before, but I like what I saw last week from him under the new coaching staff, and think that Mayfield should be able to exploit this matchup and find some success.

The coaching changes appeared to have made a positive impact for Duke Johnson $4,700. He is coming off of his best game of the season with nine receptions for 78 yards and two touchdowns, scoring 29.6 DKFP. I expect his role in the passing game to continue to be significant moving forward and the matchup for a pass catching back does not get any better than the one at hand. The Falcons have allowed the most receptions (76), most receiving yards (658), and third most touchdowns (3) to the position, while giving up the most DKFP per game. The Browns should draw up another game that will feature Johnson once again, and I fully expect him and Mayfield to connect often in this contest, making this duo an interesting stack.

Jarvis Landry $6,200 is the cheapest he has been since the start of the season and this is likely due to his recent underwhelming performances. Landry has failed to score over 13.5 DKFP in five of his last six games, however, the volume has been consistent as he is still averaging over 10 targets per game during that stretch, so it is only a matter of time before he gets it going. This could be the week as he draws a nice matchup against the Falcons who are giving up the fifth most DKFP per game to wide receivers. Atlanta has also allowed 12 receiving touchdowns (tied 3rd most) and 1,443 receiving yards. His one-on-one matchup against Brian Poole is decent, considering he has a seven percent advantage rating. The game environment is also a plus here for Landry, making this an overall favorable situation.

Secondary Options: I have been bullish on David Njoku since Mayfield became the starter and it worked for several weeks, but in the last two games, he has been underwhelming. Njoku is still a very talented tight end with plenty of upside, so there is definitely merit to consider him this week. The Falcons have been mediocre against tight ends, making this a solid matchup, but I want to see the volume go back up again before making him a primary option.

My favorite option: Mayfield/Landry/Johnson
 

Los Angeles Chargers

Game Over/Under: 50
Team Implied Points: 30
Philip Rivers $6,000 is in one of the better spots a quarterback can ask for, as he takes on the Raiders who rank dead last in DVOA against the pass. Oakland is yielding over 20 DKFP per game to opposing quarterbacks, and have allowed 18 passing touchdowns (tied 4th most). This may become a situation where he would not have to pass a ton, but even if that is the case, he should be able to do some damage here. To put it into perspective, he faced off against Oakland in Week 5 and only through the ball 27 times, but managed to throw for 339 yards and two touchdowns, scoring 24.36 DKFP. He should be able to pick this defense apart and rack up some fantasy points, and if this game does indeed blowout, he may have something to do with it. Some added incentive to rostering him this week, is that he can be considered a leverage play to the chalky Melvin Gordon.

Keenan Allen $7,100 draws a nice matchup here against Leon Hall who grades out well below average on PFF, and a matchup that he has a 27 percent advantage rating in. (tied for 4th highest). The Raiders do not allow a ton of yardage to opposing wide outs, but they have surrendered 11 touchdowns (tied 4th most). Allen has caught at least eight passes in four of his last five games against the Raiders, so there is solid history here and he continues to be a high-volume receiver. He leads the Chargers with 66 targets which is good for 27 percent of the market share and has six red zone targets which is tied for second most at 16.7 percent. He and Rivers should connect often in this contest, making these two a strong stacking option.

Melvin Gordon $9,500 is heavily involved in the passing game for the Chargers, so he has to be considered in the stack. In fact, he is second on the team with 46 targets, which is good for 18 percent of the market share. In addition, he is heavily involved in the red zone – leads team with 10 red zone targets (27.8 percent), increasing his touchdown equity. The matchup is a good one, as the Raiders have been awful against opposing backs. The last time he faced the Raiders, he had 62 receiving yards, marking the second most in a game this season. He should once again find success here, and catch some passes out of the backfield. The one concern I have, is that he does most of the damage on the ground, which I why I like the idea of rostering both him and Rivers in a stack, as they could both have nice outings and you are essentially locking up all of the touchdowns for this offense.

Secondary Options: Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams are also in play this week. Both of them have scored at least one touchdown in each of the last two games, and Tyrell Williams has actually scored in three straight games. The volume is not at all that consistent for any of them, which is why they are tough to trust as primary options. Austin Ekeler is interesting this week as well, as a cheap flier in a Chargers stack. The matchup is favorable, he is a very good pass catcher out of the backfield, and he could see plenty of work should this game get out of control.

My favorite option: Rivers/Allen
 

Additional Notes

The Saints offense is in a good spot to have a big game and they nearly made the cut as a top three stack for me. However, as I eluded to earlier in the article, this offense could rely more on the running game than on Drew Brees’ arm this week, potentially limiting his upside. That said, I still want exposure to this offense and some of the pass catchers, such as Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, but I will likely roster them without Brees this week.

The Rams offense is usually one I have exposure to and this week is no different. Jared Goff is coming off of a nice game and plays at home, where he has been much more efficient in this season. I like the idea of running a Goff to Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp stack this week, as they would be my primary options. Todd Gurley can also be considered here this week with Goff as you would basically be accounting for all of the touchdowns. Brandin Cooks can also be considered if you roll out a Rams stack.

Aaron Rodgers and company should be able to pick the Dolphins defense apart in Lambeau Field this weekend. Pairing him up with Davante Adams or Marquez Valdes-Scantling would be the way I approach this stack this weekend. The only concern I have here is the fact that Miami is terrible against the run, and the Packers could elect to attack that weakness. That said, this is still a stack that can provide plenty of fantasy points and could go overlooked.

The Chiefs offense is one that can always be considered as they put up points just about every week, but once again, I have far more interest in Kareem Hunt than the pass catchers in this contest. Patrick Mahomes and Hunt have been connecting on a regular basis, and rostering both of them pretty much locks in all the scoring from this offense, so if you want to go that route, I totally understand it. Especially since they have a healthy 33.25 implied team total.


Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, you can always find me on the Twitter machine @Armando_Marsal