crystal ball week 16 2016

By Evan Tarracciano
Evan Tarracciano
Ever been approached by a friend and they start off the conversation “I have good news and bad news, which one do you want to hear first”? That same approach can be applied to this column for my readers.

The good news? You made it to the championship! After all of the hours of prep work, solid draft, scouring the waiver wire, perhaps even making an advantageous trade or two, you’ve arrived at the end of the road. Owners are but one win away from securing their name on the championship belt, trophy, or check. Coming this far proves that you have the ability to endure close matchups and heartache, or you are just the beneficiary of an obscene amount of good karma. Either way, kudos to you!

So, what then is the bad news? Owners who head into the final contest should feel quite confident about their odds of winning, right?

Perhaps not.

I’ve been playing Fantasy Football for over a decade and a half. I’ve seen plenty of seasons where things didn’t go according to plan, players were injured, rookies dominated, and one league which was even decided by a statistical correction after the conclusion of the Monday Night game. Football, much like life in general, will throw you unexpected twists and turns. Yet for all that I’ve witnessed, I can’t recall another season where the vast majority of “stud” players failed to produce in the final three weeks of the season, costing their owners a championship.

I wrote in last week’s column how disappointed I was reading about untold heartache from an overwhelming number of my followers – sadly this week was no different.

At quarterback, four of the top nine ranked players failed to crack double-digits in points (Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford) while another actually finished in the negative in many formats – Marcus Mariota.

Wide receiver wasn’t much better. Antonio Brown (3 receptions, 58 yards), Mike Evans (4/59), T.Y. Hilton (3/45), Larry Fitzgerals (7/57 with a lost fumble), Davante Adams (2/25 with two drops that could have been touchdowns), Emmanuel Sanders (3/48) and Amari Cooper (1/28) all laid major eggs.

Don’t get me started at tight end. The number of tweets that I saw about Jimmy Graham, Martellus Bennett or Jordan Reed costing their owners a victory was borderline absurd.

With all that said, what can we do? Owners can’t go onto the field and call plays just for their team, nor will wallowing in a pit of despair get much accomplished. The simple realization is that this is just a game, and one that has very unpredictable outcomes. All that owners can do is examine their lineup and set it based upon the health of their players and the matchups which they face. You’ll hear plenty of experts and pundits on TV and radio cautioning their owners to not “get too cute” this week when considering who to start or sit. I’ll agree with this line of thinking. Sure, it is essential to put plenty of time and effort in the championships, but start the players who brought you there in the first place!

During the course of the season I’ve held a weekly video Q&A session over on the Football Diehards Facebook page (link below), and joined Bob Harris and Mike Dempsey for the “7 at 7” segment on Tuesday afternoons at 3:00 PM EST. This article serves as a supplementary piece to my thoughts, expanding on some of the more “hot button” topics that I received a lot of traffic on. Check out all of my prior videos and meet me for each new one here:

https://www.facebook.com/FootballDieHards/

Q: Now that Tom Savage has taken over as the starting quarterback in Houston, what does that do the value of DeAndre Hopkins? He’s been riding my bench since Week 6!
A: Things are certainly looking up for “Nuk” owners who stuck with him during the second half of the season. While I won’t get into what a catastrophic bust Hopkins has been in 2016, this switch can only be a positive for him. This week’s upcoming matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals isn’t exactly a cakewalk as they rank 13th in terms of passing yards allowed per-game (241), but there is plenty of upside here. I’d view Hopkins as a solid midrange WR2, capable of producing around 15-20 points in a PPR format.

Q: Will Julio Jones play this week?
A: All indications are that he will, which is certainly a boost for the Atlanta Falcons passing game. With the majority of teams facing a short week (the bulk of games take place on Saturday, December 24th due to the holiday), expect the Falcons to treat Jones with kid-gloves, limiting his workload to a limited practice or two. He’s trending in the right direction, but will likely be labeled as “questionable” entering the game.

Q: Alshon Jeffery is finally back and put up over 20 points in my PPR league last week. What should I expect from him against Washington, and does his return mean that Cameron Meredith is droppable?
A: Jeffery owners were disappointed with his lack of production against the Green Bay Packers until a final drive or two late in the game while the team was in pass-first, comeback mode. His 6-89-1 stat line looks good for those who didn’t watch the game, but his lack of targets or production until the final moments wasn’t a very encouraging sign. Even with Jeffery returning, Meredith still caught 9 passes for 104 yards, so I’d be very hesitant to suggest that he isn’t worthy of a FLEX spot in most formats. The Bears lack of passing options means that both players will see double-digit targets each week. Jeffery has the higher ceiling of the two, but they aren’t worlds apart, especially with Matt Barkley at quarterback.

Q: Ty Montgomery. Wow. Where has this been all year?
A: I don’t want to beat my chest too hard here, but owners certainly can’t say that I was down on Montgomery. In multiple columns and radio segments, I suggested that “Monty” was the back to own in Green Bay, but cautioned his owners that since the team is so pass-heavy, his upside would be capped by game flow. Prior to Week 15, Montgomery hadn’t received more than 9 carries in any given game, so to see the team hand him the ball 16 times is an encouraging sign. Similar to Terrell Pryor or C.J. Prosise, Montgomery is a freak athlete who is a work in progress at his newfound position. His 16-162-2 outburst was definitely his best game of the season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he receives a goal line carry or two against the Minnesota Vikings, who are allowing over 105 yards per game on the ground.

Q: Any chance that you could provide me with your top 5 QB starts this upcoming week?
A: Sure thing. 1. Tom Brady vs. New York Jets 2. Drew Brees vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3. Matt Ryan vs. Carolina Panthers 4. Aaron Rodgers vs. Minnesota Vikings and 5. Philip Rivers vs. Cleveland Browns

Q: Is this New York Giants defense for real? And how much should I downgrade the Philadelphia Eagles?
A: I’m a self-admitted homer, but I’ll try and be as objective as I can with this question. Is the Giants defense top 5 in the league? I truly believe so. Statistically, they only allow 90 rushing yards per game, which has them ranked as the 6th stingiest. Their secondary allows over 250 passing yards per game, and although that has the squad ranked 23rd in the NFL, they are within the top 8 in interceptions (14), and have only allowed 13 passing touchdowns all season, which ranks 2nd in the league. Opponents will often need to play catchup, and a “bend but don’t break” mentality in the red zone holds them to field goals rather than touchdowns. I’d downgrade Jordan Matthews/Zach Ertz from a scoring perspective, but still think that both players easily catch 7-10 passes each.

Q: Where is your weekly Sean Payton rant?
A: Don’t poke the bear. I’ve said my peace on how much I detest his treatment of Mark Ingram, and was quite happy to see him screamed at on the sidelines. He’s a total clown.

Q: Any good streaming defenses this week that I should consider?
A: I’ve recommended the San Diego Chargers to multiple people, who go on the road to face the Cleveland Browns this week. Any defense going against the Browns is a solid play, but especially one which is so capable of generating turnovers.

Q: Can you trust Jordan Reed this week, even if he is active?
A: Not at all – we’ve seen him be essentially a decoy the past two starts, and his ejection last week totally swung the tide of the drive. I want nothing to do with him in a championship matchup.

Q: Okay, well if you are a Jordan Reed or Ladarius Green owner, are there any streaming options to consider who might be owned in less than 50 percent of leagues?
A: A few to consider would be C.J. Fiedorowicz (38 percent owned) who was recently cleared from his concussion and is going to be a good outlet for Tom Savage, or Dennis Pitta (45 percent). Vernon Davis is only owned in 36 percent of leagues and would be a mid-tier TE1 start if Reed is out.

Q: Thoughts on Cam Newton not getting the roughing the passer call, while Kirk Cousins did?
A: I don’t think that the hit on Newton was as black-and-white as others have made it out to be, but certainly would have understood that a flag should have been thrown on the play. It appeared that the defender went to tackle him as Newton began his slide. As for the Cousins call, that was just horrible. Thankfully it didn’t alter the victor.

Q: Any fun Christmas presents for your kids this year?
A: My daughter is almost five and my son isn’t quite two yet, so I don’t have anything really crazy planned. I think my wife ordered a five-foot-tall stuffed giraffe for my daughter, who is currently obsessed with animals. As for my son – children’s books and some blocks to play with.

Roto Wizard’s Note- Ordinarily I finish these columns by recommending players who could be added off of the waiver wire to help push owners to a victory. As there were no major injuries of note this past week, I can’t strongly endorse any player who is owned in less than 20-25 percent of leagues as someone who owners should both grab and start in their championship matchup. I would however encourage players to scour the waiver wire in keeper/dynasty leagues for players who may have been either hurt (Ameer Abdullah) or suspended (Martavis Bryant, Josh Gordon) with upside for the 2017 season. Best of luck to everyone this week! If you have any sit/start questions feel free to send me a tweet (@Roto_Wizard) and I’ll answer them ASAP!