DFS Hunter Report Week 1 2018

Welcome back to another year of DFS fun at FootballDiehards.com, starting with Week 1 in the DraftKings NFL $5M Roman Fantasy Football Millionaire ($1M to 1st). I’ll have a $20 entry in, will you? I’ll be basing my weekly write-ups off DraftKings salaries, so let’s get excited. I know I am.

Keep in mind all suggestions are not equal, and some players I like more for tournament or cash lineup builds over others.

QUARTERBACK

Top Level

Deshaun Watson, HOU @ New England Patriots ($6,700) – You gotta wonder how many DFS owners will build their lineup around Watson in Week 1. Before the ACL tear he suffered during practice ahead of Week 9 of the 2017 season, Watson was performing at an epic level. Will he bring the same game performance he did during his rookie season before the injury? I’m willing to gamble Watson will come out of the gate strong, especially since $6.7K is a fair price overall to gamble with. He’ll have a full complement of weapons on offense, with DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller V ready for action. Yes, believe it or not, Fuller V will be ready to go, so expect all cylinders firing strong for the Texans passing game.

Other Choices: Drew Brees, NO vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,800); Tom Brady, NE vs. Houston Texans ($7,200)

Value

Blake Bortles, JAC @ New York Giants ($5,600) – Bortles is strictly a tournament play for me, so I like the idea of building a team with him as my QB in the DraftKings NFL $5M Roman Fantasy Football Millionaire ($1M to 1st). Even though the Jaguars lost Marqise Lee, Bortles still has other weapons to target downfield. Interceptions are always a worry with Bortles, but at this price point? I’m risking things with him assuming I build up RB and WR, which I certainly will. Bortles isn’t really for the faint of heart in grind-out cash games, so stick to tournaments only.

Other Choices: Andrew Luck, IND vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($6,100); Andy Dalton, CIN @ Indianapolis Colts ($5,800)

Over-Value

Marcus Mariota, TEN @ Miami Dolphins ($6,300) – This avoid over-value suggestion could easily blow up in my face; however, I just don’t trust Mariota’s past week-to-week inconsistencies, at least not enough to spend $6.3K on him when I can easily lock in others for a similar price tag. Mariota is a certain failure in cash-play leagues for me, less so in tournament play, but you don’t want Mariota heading your lineup.

Other Choices: Philip Rivers, LAC vs. Kansas City Chiefs ($6,400)

RUNNING BACK

Top Level
David Johnson, ARI vs. Washington Redskins ($8,800) – Johnson is another player coming off major injury in 2017, although he’s ready to go according to reports and recent preseason play. I like the matchup early on, so if I’m spending up at RB Johnson is the one I want most. He’s someone you can count on for tournament and cash-play games, with excellent TD and yardage totals expected. Look for Johnson to get plenty of action out of the backfield as a receiver too, with 80 receptions in 2016.

Other Choices: Le’Veon Bell, PIT @ Cleveland Browns ($9,400)

Value

Dalvin Cook, MIN vs. San Francisco 49ers ($6,200) – Man, I’m all over another player coming off injury in 2017 in Cook, who is at a very reasonable $6.2K facing a poor Niners defense. My potential Lazarus-lineup for Week 1 is a bit risky, although I’m digging it. Cook is supposed to be featured quite a bit in the passing game for the Vikings, which bodes well for DFS owners. I see Cook as the most prominent Vikings offensive option in Week 1, even with Kirk Cousins and his wonderful receivers in the passing game.

Other Choices: Joe Mixon, CIN @ Indianapolis Colts ($6,100); Kenyan Drake, MIA vs. Tennessee Titans ($5,900); Alex Collins, BAL vs. Buffalo Bills ($5,600); Peyton Barber, TB @ New Orleans ($4,100)

Over-Value

Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,700) – Barkley may be another option that backfires on me, but I’m going to skip him this week. I’m not thrilled about Barkley facing the Jaguars defense out of the gate. The price tag isn’t too out of whack; however, I’m not convinced Barkley earns this salary at all. I like other similarly priced RBs with better defensive matchups.

Other Choices: Ezekiel Elliott, DAL @ Carolina Panthers ($7,700)

WIDE RECEIVER

Top Level

Keenan Allen, LAC vs. Kansas City Chiefs ($7,500) – There are some fantastic receivers to load up with if that’s how you want to build your lineup. I can see going that route in a cash lineup, getting the likes of DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas and Antonio Brown worked in if you can, then playing values at RB. That’s what I love about DFS: the ever-ending options in a lineup build. Allen is a great option this week, considering the defensive matchup facing the Chiefs and that he’ll be Philip Rivers’ No. 1 target all day. These AFC West divisional matchups are crazy sometimes and I expect quite a bit of offensive output from the Chargers.

Other Choices: DeAndre Hopkins, HOU @ New England Patriots ($8,300); Michael Thomas, NO vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,800); A.J. Green, CIN @ Indianapolis Colts ($7,300)

Value

Mike Evans, TB @ New Orleans Saints ($6,700) – This opening price point is based on Evans’ disappointing season last year. Evans is easily as talented as Michael Thomas, A.J. Green, and others, but his 5 TD season in 2017 and barely clearing over 1,000 yards hurts his initial Week 1 expectations. I see value here, even with the QB issues Tampa Bay has right now. Sometimes you just go with talent, and this is one of those weeks. I love Evans for all lineup formats. Don’t be surprised to see 100-plus yards and at least 1 TD.

Other Choices: JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT @ Cleveland Browns ($5,900); Jarvis Landry, CLE vs. Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,500); Devin Funchess, CAR vs. Dallas Cowboys ($5,200); Marquise Goodwin, SF @ Minnesota Vikings ($4,600); DeDe Westbrook, JAC @ New York Giants ($3,900)

Over-Value

Odell Beckham, Jr., NYG vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($7,000) – I feel like I could easily put together a lineup with the players I’m recommending as over-value options and that I’m being a bit nitpicky. Maybe so, as Beckham is one of the best in the game and he’s now quite happy after signing a major contract extension, but the $7K that it takes to lock him into lineups facing arguably the best defensive backs in the game? I’m going to pass.

Other Choices: Corey Davis, TEN @ Miami Dolphins ($5,600)

TIGHT END

Top Level

Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots ($6,900)

Travis Kelce, KC @ Los Angeles Chargers ($6,400)

Value

Evan Engram, NYG vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,700)

Jordan Reed, WAS @ Arizona Cardinals ($4,000)

Over-Value

Delanie Walker, TEN @ Miami Dolphins ($4,900)



Good luck in Week 1! Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy