The Shadow Knows Week 16 2018

This time of year is filled with joy and happiness. With fellowship and mirth. With smiles and laughter.

Unless, of course, you're still playing in a fantasy football league. If that's the case, then odds are it's Championship Week. Instead of joy and happiness, it's nervous anticipation and dread. Swap out fellowship and mirth for anxiety and more anxiety. Smiles and laughter become wails of anguish and the gnashing of teeth—usually while reading the injury report.

OK, maybe I'm projecting a little. Or at least I would be if my teams hadn't been aboard the Failureberg and already crashed in flames.

Here's the thing though—there's only so much you can do to influence the outcome of the game. You're doing the research (or at least some of it) by scoping out these WR vs. CB matchups in Week 16. You'll no doubt spend far too much time thinking and re-thinking lineup decisions.

But once the games start, it's all out of your hands. Yelling at the TV might make you feel a little bit better, but it really doesn't change anything.

Do your homework. Set your lineups. And then relax.

Because whether you're playing for bragging rights or a pile of cash, it's still a game based on a game played by other folks. Their level of control is a lot higher than ours.

And there are few things less Christmas-y than ulcers and panic attacks.

You made it this far. Enjoy the title game. And while you're at it—enjoy the holidays as well.

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers (Jimmy Smith vs. Keenan Allen)

Per Ryan Mink of the Ravens website , Smith's grateful to be healthy for this run for a playoff spot by the Ravens. “All I can control is trying to play strong these last games and whatever happens, happens,” Smith said. “I’m not blind to how my career has gone, or the injuries, or some of the off-the-field situations that have occurred. I just know that I’m here today and could be gone tomorrow. Take it as it comes. I can’t be worried about stuff I have no control over. I’ve learned that.”

Recent reports indicate that the hip injury Keenan Allen suffered last week in Kansas City won't keep the star wideout off the field Saturday against Baltimore. Not only is Smith playing some of the best football of his career, but the Ravens have arguably the best defense in football and rank 29th in PPR fantasy points surrendered to wide receivers this season.

Panic Level: 7 (He's hurt and the matchup sucks, but it's Keenan Allen. If he plays, you gotta roll him out)

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (Xavier Rhodes vs. Kenny Golladay)

Despite last week's 7/146/0 explosion, the computer model at Sportsline isn't a big fan of Golladay this week. "Golladay is owned in 98 percent of CBS leagues and being started in 66 percent of them," he said, "but the model has him as the No. 27 overall wide receiver this week, meaning he's no better than a flex consideration. That's because he has a tough matchup against a top-10 passing defense in Minnesota. The Vikings held the Dolphins to 108 yards passing last week and limited Russell Wilson to just 72 yards through the air. Golladay, who has also been limited in practice with a chest injury, is projected to score fewer points than receivers like Calvin Ridley, Kenny Stills, Corey Davis and Alshon Jeffery, all of whom are owned and started in a lower percentage of leagues. Be sure to put Golladay on your bench if your season is on the line this weekend, even though he's the team's No. 1 wideout."

I will freely admit that my concerns about Golladay last week were overblown—which sounds better than saying I was wrong. But Golladay's on the injury report this week with a chest issue, the whole Lions offense is half a mess right now, and Xavier Rhodes is a helluva lot harder to body up than Tre'Davious White. So long as Golladay's relatively healthy his target volume alone makes him a must-start, but last week's numbers feel like his ceiling and then some in Week 16.

Panic Level: 7 (Were he not getting targeted all the times ever per game right now, it would be 9.)

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (Stefon Diggs vs, Darius Slay)

Slay's interceptions are down this year, but as he told Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press he feels like he earned a second straight trip to the Pro Bowl. "My play’s been good," Slay said. "I done had a couple few (bad) plays here, a few plays there, but I had a couple few plays last year, too. But other than that, other than (having fewer interceptions), I think I’ve played pretty well. Been competing all the time at high levels. Shoot, man, I mean, yeah, I’ve been really clamping. It's kind of hard for somebody to have back to back eight-year picks. So obviously a quarterback probably most likely won’t give you that many opportunities to pick the ball, so of course my stats aren’t going to be (like they were last year)."

This is a matchup where we have the benefit of a recent matchup to draw from—an honest-to-goodness sample of what we might see from a Vikings team fighting like hell for a playoff spot and a Lions team that…isn’t. In that game in Minneapolis on November 4, Diggs…didn't play due to injury. So much for THAT idea. Diggs found the end zone last week, but his numbers have dropped since the Vikings ditched their OC and remembered they can run the ball. With Slay covering him and the Vikings trying to have a balanced offense, this feels like a tempered expectations situation.

Panic Level: 5 (The Lions are a surprisingly blah 21st in PPR fantasy points allowed to wide receivers)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (Mike Evans vs. Byron Jones)

Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire wrote recently that he thinks Evans was the biggest Pro Bowl snub of the year at wide receiver. "Though the Bucs are out of contention for anything other than a new head coach," he said, "Evans has been a star all season, and he ranks second in the league with 1,328 receiving yards, behind only Julio Jones' 1511. In addition, Evans leads the league among receivers with at least 50% of their targets with an amazing 17.9 yards per catch average. Jones and Michael Thomas of the Saints making the Pro Bowl makes sense, but that Evans didn't make the cut over Adam Thielen and Davante Adams is a bit weird."

Evans has been essentially just what fantasy owners expected in 2018—he's 10th in PPR fantasy points 15 weeks into the season. But while Evans has been solid and relatively consistent, he hasn't had more than four catches in a game since Week 12 and hasn't scored since Week 11. He's not going to lose you a championship game, but facing Byron Jones and a Dallas team that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to receivers in 2018, odds are he isn't going to win it for you either.

Panic Level: 4 (It is what it is—Evans is a great player with a terrible matchup in Week 16)

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (Robert Woods vs. Patrick Peterson)

ESPN's Matt Bowen recently paid Peterson the ultimate compliment, calling him the best cover cornerback in the NFL today. "I thought Peterson's film dipped a bit last season," Bowen said. "But this year? He pops on tape. Playing on a sub-par team, Peterson is once again at the top. He's a complete cover man, too. That means he can win by playing multiple techniques. You want to see Peterson challenge receivers at the line of scrimmage? No problem. Play off-man, weave and then close with speed? Sure. Or, watch his eyes, his transition ability and the skill set to strike as a zone defender. It's all there."

Peterson's Cardinals are just playing out the string, while Woods and the Rams are trying to get things back on track and lock up a first-round playoff bye after losing their last two games. Facing Peterson (who recently was named to his eighth Pro Bowl) is cause enough for concern in and of itself. But coupled with the struggles of Jared Goff (one touchdown and six interceptions over the past three games), Woods' fantasy owners have reason to sail right past concerned and into freaking out.

Panic Level: 7 (You essentially have to start Woods, but the risk level is stratospheric)

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints (Joe Haden vs. Michael Thomas)

Haden was named the AFC Defensive Player of the Week for his huge game against the Patriots a week ago, but as Joe Rutter reported for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review head coach Mike Tomlin thought the effort was just business as usual. “Joe is a special guy,” Tomlin said. “He really is, he’s got special talents, but his approach to it day-in and day-out, he’s a compass of steady and influence for a young secondary. … We ask him to do a lot of things beyond A, B and C, and he does it all with a smile.”

It's not going to get any easier for Haden in Week 16, as he'll face one of the NFL's 10 most-targeted receivers in Thomas in the Superdome. Haden's playing about as well right now as he ever has—including his heyday as the best player for some terrible Browns teams. But he's also allowed some pretty good stat lines to elite wide receivers over the past couple of seasons, and you know that Thomas is going to get a ton of looks at home.

Panic Level: 2 (It would be twice that if the game was in Pittsburgh. But it's not. So there.)

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints (Antonio Brown vs. Marshon Lattimore)

As ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger thinks Brown's yardage and catches are down for a simple reason—teams are scared to death of him. "Listen, I love AB to death, but if they want to keep doubling AB, we’ll keep throwing to other guys, because at some point they are going to have to stop putting two guys on AB and start respecting the other guy on the other side of the field. When that happens, AB’s just going to do what he always does. If you look at AB’s numbers this year, they are down, but yet he’s still in the tops in everything," Roethlisberger added. "That just speaks to the type of player he is and the work he puts in and just how special he is."

Calling Brown's numbers "down" is about as relative as relative gets—he leads the NFL in touchdown catches and ranks seventh in PPR fantasy points among receivers. But this could well be the week that Juju Smith-Schuster overtakes him in fantasy points. While Brown will square off with Marshon Lattimore on Sunday afternoon, Smith-Schuster will draw Eli Apple in coverage. One of those players is the reigning NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year and an excellent young cover corner. The other…isn't.

Panic Level: 2 (This has the makings of a Juju week—but AB will get his too)