Fabiano's Experts Best Ball Draft Analysis pwk2 2019
The preseason has brought a wealth of storylines from The Legend of Jakobi Meyers to Kyler supposed Murray’s downfall. We got some fantasy’s sharpest minds together for a best ball draft to break it all down.
One common strategy among the experts was stacking. Taking multiple players on the same NFL team allows sets your fantasy team up to dominate in the event of their offense putting up video game numbers.
Last year, that team was the Kansas City Chiefs. Taking Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Patrick Mahomes was both possible and highly profitable. Mark Deming is banking on that being the case again this year. He paid a premium to get Tyreek Hill as the first receiver and Patrick Mahomes two rounds before he’s typically drafted in high stakes leagues. He also drafted Darwin Thompson and Mecole Hardman multiple rounds before their ADPs. Stacking the best offense in the NFL is smart but make sure you’re not pricing out the value by taking an offensive unit too early.
Drafting at the Turn
Every draft is a tale of two turns. The person at the top of their draft gets to shoot their shot at the No. 1 overall running back. Saquon Barley posted the third-most receptions by a rookie player (not just running back) ever. Christian McCaffrey’s 107 catches are the most ever caught by a back. There’s no way to go wrong with either of these players and they were drafted accordingly.
The 12-slot is the opposite. Typically, six or more backs are off the board and there’s overwhelming value at wide receiver. For Tom Kessenich, this value kept on flowing and he took four wideouts in his first five picks. Despite that, he still got a singular workhorse back in Leonard Fournette.
This rolls into the overall flow of the draft. Most drafts will start with at least five running backs in a row. Here, Ezekiel Elliott fell to the eighth pick.
Losing a first-round pick is nearly impossible o come back from. No matter the format or site, Le’Veon bell owners won their leagues less than 1% of the time last season.
Because of the early run on backs, the fourth wide receiver went after the sixth back. Then the pendulum reverses and the WR30 (A.J. Green) is taken a pick before the RB26 (Phillip Lindsay).
Staying on the opposite side of these runs—See Nelson Sousa’s draft—is a great way to continually mine value.
Because of holdout news or injuries, some picks may look strange but will become more commonplace as we march towards the season.
- Austin Ekeler (RB31), Tony pollard (RB34), and Jaylen Samuels (RB39)
- All three backs were taken by Derek Pierson despite the fact that he owns none of their respective starters. By doing this he now has the potential to have his own first-round pick (via the handcuff) and steal someone else's if Melvin Gordon, Zeke, or James Conner miss time.
- Josh Gordon (WR37)
- When targeting Gordon, Tom Brady averages 11.5 adjusted yards per attempt. That’s the highest mark of any pass-catcher Brady has ever thrown to at least 50 times.
- Antonio Brown (WR15)
- Brown is making a fuss about his special helmet but when he’s on the field it’s all business: He’s top-two all-time in yards and receptions by the age of 30. Did I mention the Raiders have the most vacated targets (343) in the league?
- Kalen Ballage (RB30) and Kenyan Drake (RB35)
- Drake has been sidelined all pres-season due to a foot injury. Ballage is slotted as the next man up. The experts are hesitant to anoint anyone as a value here. It’s likely a muddled committee on a horrible offense throughout the season.
- James Washington (WR47)
- Greg Ambrosius is getting ahead of the hype in the ninth round. Through two preseason games, Washington has an 8-162-1 stat line. He was also a dominant college producer, posting over 1,500 yards in his final season at Oklahoma State.
There are two types of players in the later rounds of drafts: High-floor guys and high-ceiling plays. If someone has both of these traits, they’ve already been drafted.
Michael Fabiano (FABS) cemented his floor in the early rounds with Davantae Adams, Zach Ertz, and James White. With his final picks, he took the top off and shot for upside.
Rex Burkhead isn’t a lock to make the Patriots roster. He is a running back in a New England offense though. Michel has chronic knee issues and Damian Harris has failed to impress in training camp. If the right dominoes fall for Burkhead, the touchdown upside is real.
Chris Thompson has already flashed the playmaking ability you want from an early-round pick in fantasy drafts. In 20017, Thompson scored six times and went for more than 800 yards from scrimmage while playing in 10 games. He just can’t seem to stay healthy: In six seasons, Thompson has played a full slate of 16 games once. Even if Thompson only gives his owners a handful of healthy weeks, there’s no reason to fade him at this cost (next to nothing).
Two receivers were drafted more than 40 places behind where they finished last season. Their names are Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel. Sanu finished as the 31st wide receiver in PPR formats and Gabriel ended up ten spots behind him. Both players saw over 90 targets and brought down more than 65 of them.
Although these players have capped ceilings over the course of a season because of the competition they’ll face—Calvin Ridley and Ridley are the stars of Atlanta while Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller are taking up volume—they can still spike on a few weeks. Sanu crossed 20 points twice last year while Gabriel crushed Week 4 to the tune of 30 points.
Sanu and Gabriel are the most affordable sources of volume late-round picks can buy this year.