TheHunterReport DFS Week 15 2016

By Dave Hunter

Where has the NFL season gone?

Yep, there’s only three weeks left in the regular season. That means there’s only three weeks left in the DFS pool where we get a full slate of games. Sure, we’ll get playoff games to rustle up some good lineups, but when the player pool gets dwindled everyone’s NFL spirit usually takes a dip. Mine does, anyway.
So, let’s enjoy these last full-schedule weeks and get right into Week 15. Good luck this week!

QUARTERBACK

Top Level

Matt Ryan, ATL vs. San Francisco 49ers ($7,300) – This is a very reasonable price tag for Ryan facing the Niners defense. Ryan is a nice cash play, although you have to figure that there’s going to be lots of us DFS’ers on him for Sunday’s game. I would be wary of the Falcon’s chewing up the game on the ground, which may knock a few ticks off Ryan’s outlook. Still, you have to have some exposure to him in multiple lineup settings.

Other choices: Aaron Rodgers, GB @ Chicago Bears ($7,100)

Mid-Range

Drew Brees, NO @ Arizona Cardinals ($6,600) – That’s two weeks in a row where Big Ben threw zero TDs and three INTs, making for a dud-type DFS day. Will it be three weeks in a row for Big Ben? Nah, I expect him to put these weeks behind him and jump all over the Cardinals, even on the road. The Cards passing D is tough, but the Saints should be getting a bit healthier at WR in Week 15. I like the price here, so take advantage especially in GPP tournament play.

Other choices: Marcus Mariota, TEN @ Kansas City Chiefs ($6,500); Derek Carr, OAK @ San Diego Chargers ($6,300)

Value

Tyrod Taylor, BUF vs. Cleveland Browns ($5,700) – Love the matchup here obviously, although will we get a low ownership percentage? Probably not. I’m okay with that though for some of my lineups, mainly due to the price tag. If the Bills expect to stay in the playoff hunt they need Taylor to run and pass his way to a fantastic game. Don’t be surprised to see a 20-plus game out of Taylor.

Other choices: Eli Manning, NYG vs. Detroit Lions ($5,600); Alex Smith, KC vs. Tennessee Titans ($5,400)

Over-Value

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT @ Buffalo Bills ($6,700) – Should we gamble on Big Ben this week on the road in Cincinnati? Like I said last week, I’m staying away here with the assumption that Big Ben will continue to struggle on the road. Sure, he could surprise but he’s not worth the $6.7K gamble. I’d much rather see you slot Marcus Mariota or Drew Brees in your lineup, both at similar price tags.

RUNNING BACK

Top Level

David Johnson, ARI vs. New Orleans Saints ($10,100) – Yikes, this is some big-time bucks to spend on Johnson. I have a hard time spending the dough but forcing myself to do so may lead to a 30-plus game against the hapless Saints rush defense. If you can manage to find some excellent values at other positions which you should be able to do after reading this piece – ahem – then sure, feel free to slot DJ into a lineup or two.

Other choices: Le’Veon Bell, PIT @ Cincinnati Bengals ($9,800); LeSean McCoy, BUF vs. Cleveland Browns ($8,900)

Mid-Range

Devonta Freeman, ATL vs. San Francisco 49ers ($6,700) – Piling on the Niners just doesn’t seem fair, with Matt Ryan above as a recommendation at QB. I guess you just have to figure out whom to pick and choose from your Atlanta options to slot into your lineups. The other interesting option is Tevin Coleman, who I can easily see getting a bit more carries at RB in Week 15 considering the matchup.

Other choices: Jordan Howard, CHI vs. Green Bay Packers ($6,000)

Value

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($8,200) – I’m going right back to the “just because the price is high it doesn’t mean he isn’t a value” play. Wow. If you’re looking to take advantage of an “off” week for Elliott, then this is it. It would’ve been great to see him drop below $8K but we’ll take this, won’t we? The matchup is decent and Elliott is a good choice for cash and GPP games.

Other choices: Carlos Hyde, SF @ Atlanta Falcons ($5,900); Latavius Murray, OAK @ San Diego Chargers ($5,800); Tevin Coleman, ATL vs. San Francisco 49ers ($5,000)

Over-Value

Melvin Gordon, SD vs. Oakland Raiders ($6,500) – From being carted off the field in Week 14 to day-to-day heading into Week 15? I’ll pass. I love what Gordon has done this season and the matchup is good but I prefer to pass on him at this price. You spend your dollars as you see fit, although I suggest looking in Devonta Freeman or even Carlos Hyde instead.

WIDE RECEIVER

Top Level

Mike Evans, TB @ Dallas Cowboys ($8,300) – That’s two poop-y weeks in a row for Evans. I’m gambling it won’t be three, especially in a tight almost must-win game facing the Cowboys. The Bucs have been winning games in an ugly fashion, although I figure they get one of the best WR in the game back into the mix. Evans will see plenty of targets, and I like him to net at least five catches with 80-plus yards and a TD score. Will you be happy with that at $8.3K? Not likely, but it’s the massive potential of more that Evans provides.

Other choices: Odell Beckham, Jr., NYG vs. Detroit Lions ($8,000)

Mid-Range

Jordy Nelson, GB @ Chicago Bears ($7,300) – Nelson is averaging almost 19 FPPG on DraftKings making him 7th overall this season at WR in DFS play. Not bad, huh? You have to figure Nelson will get a good amount of looks facing the Bears, mainly since the Packers running game is practically non-existent. I dig Nelson as a value play too, although I decided to slot him here considering article constraints.

Other choices: Amari Cooper, OAK @ San Diego Chargers ($7,100); Larry Fitzgerald, ARI vs. New Orleans Saints ($7,000); Dez Bryant, DAL vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,800)

Value

Tyreek Hill, KC vs. Tennessee Titans ($5,700) – Man, how about that Tyreek Hill? You have to love what he’s done late in the season for the Chiefs, while also giving DFS owners a sneaky play into their lineups. Hill isn’t really an “unknown” anymore, not after his showing against the Raiders on Thursday Night Football. Still, the price tag is advantageous for us. The matchup is lovely. I mean, Hill’s usage is going to creep up but not enough that I’m going to ignore him on game day. Yowza.

Other choices: Taylor Gabriel, ATL vs. San Francisco 49ers ($5,600); Jordan Matthews, PHI vs. Baltimore Ravens ($5,400), Steve Smith, BAL vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($5,300)’ Dontrelle Inman, SD vs. Oakland Raiders ($5,100)

Over-Value

Antonio Brown, PIT @ Cincinnati Bengals ($8,400) – It’s tough to list Brown here; however, if you think Big Ben Roethlisberger is going to have issues on the road facing the Bengals then Brown likely won’t have a great day. And, that’s the camp I’m in. Don’t get me wrong, Brown is as talented as a WR in the NFL but there are better options for your dough.

TIGHT END

Top Level

Travis Kelce, KC vs. Tennessee Titans ($5,900)

Tyler Eifert, CIN vs. Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,600)

Mid-Range

Kyle Rudolph, MIN vs. Indianapolis Colts ($4,300)

Value

Cameron Brate, TB @ Dallas Cowboys ($3,800)

Eric Ebron, DET @ New York Giants ($3,700)

Over-Value

Zach Ertz, PHI @ Baltimore Ravens ($4,900)

Good luck in Week 15! Feel free to stalk me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy