Stack Em Up DraftKings Week 13 2018
If you look at most winning lineups at the end of each slate, many if not most of them will have a stack. For those who are not familiar with what stacking means, let’s define what we are calling a stack. Stacking is pairing multiple players from one team. In this instance I will be referring to a quarterback and one of his receivers, tight ends, or running backs. When you pair up a quarterback with one of his pass catchers, you are increasing upside. Generally you want to pair up a signal caller with his primary receiver, but at times, you can change that approach depending on matchups, potential game script, or any other variable that can have an impact on your decision making. Each week I’ll go over some of my favorite stacks and provide you with multiple ways to approach the stack, as well as give you my favorite option. That said, let’s jump right into it and go over my top stacks on the main slate this week.
Game Over/Under: 49.5
Team Implied Points: 22.25
Kirk Cousins $5,500 finds himself in a good situation this week against the Patriots who rank 19th in DVOA against the pass. New England has surrendered 22 passing touchdowns this year and is giving up 22.4 DKFP per game, which is seventh most. The Vikings are a pass first team this season, as this offense is attempting the third most passes per game. Even though this is a road game for the Vikings, Cousins has played far better on the road than at home this season, averaging 330.2 passing yards and 25.6 DKFP per game away from Minnesota, while tossing 12 passing touchdowns. This should set up as a nice game environment for him, as the Patriots are favored in this one and this game has a high total. The price also seems a bit too cheap for a quarterback of his caliber in a situation like this, making him even more appealing.
Adam Thielen $8,000 got back on track last week eclipsing 100 receiving yards and scoring a touchdown. He has now topped 100 receiving yards in all but two games and has found the pay dirt in all but three games. He is second in the NFL with 124 targets, accounting for 28 percent of the Vikings target share, as well as 29.7 percent of their red zone targets. In addition, he is top 10 in air yards this season and is second in receiving yards. The usage is consistent and very high for him on this offense. Thielen is having a phenomenal season and looks to continue his success this week. He is expected to see Jason McCourty which is a tough matchup, but Thielen has proven that he can overcome a below average matchup and be productive, not to mention, he has a two percent advantage rating per PFF. In addition, the Patriots rank 24th in DVOA against opposing No. 1 wide receivers. Thielen offers a perfect combination of a high floor and a high ceiling, making him a viable option in all formats.
Secondary Options: Normally I would consider Diggs as a priority in my Vikings stack, but it is tough for me to do so this week. He draws an extremely tough matchup against Stephon Gilmore and is battling a knee injury. Not to mention, he is only $400 cheaper than Thielen, who I feel stronger this week. Diggs can certainly be considered in this contest, but for me he is more a secondary option. I typically like attacking the slow Patriots linebackers with pass catching backs and Dalvin Cook has shown his ability to catch passes out of the backfield, making him an intriguing option in this stack. The only thing holding me back from prioritizing him is the lack of usage (five percent) in the passing game that he has had this season. Kyle Rudolph accounts for 13 percent of the market share in Minnesota, but he has lacked efficiency for most of the season, unable to get much done with the targets he gets. That said, the Patriots are extremely generous to opposing tight ends, making this a favorable matchup for Rudolph, so he can certainly be considered this week.
My favorite option: Cousin/Thielen
Game Over/Under: 54.5
Team Implied Points: 29
Cam Newton $6,600 continues to be a model of consistency, with multiple touchdowns in all but one game this season. He offers both a safe floor and plenty of upside. This week he draws a great matchup against Tampa Bay who ranks 32nd in DVOA against the pass. The Bucs have allowed 3,207 passing yards (6th most) and 26 passing touchdowns (most in the NFL) to opposing signal callers, while yielding the third most DKFP per game. They are also allowing 4.8 yards per carry to the position, which is good news for Newton who averages 7.7 rush attempts per game. In their last meeting, he attempted just 25 passes, completing 19 of those for 247 yards and two touchdowns. He should have no trouble dissecting this defense and putting together a strong performance.
Whether I decide to roll out with Newton or not this week, I will likely be overweight on Christian McCaffrey $8,800 this week. With that said, he makes for a very good stacking option with Newton this week. McCaffrey accounts for 25 percent of the target share in Carolina, as well as, 25.6 percent of the red zone targets, while also seeing 57.1 percent of the rush attempts inside the 20. So far this season, he has accounted for 23 percent of Newton’s passing touchdowns. The matchup is a great one as the Bucs have been generous to pass catching backs, allowing 553 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns to the position, to go along with the 13 rushing touchdowns to the position (2nd most). Several weeks ago when these two teams met, McCaffrey finished with 157 total yards, two touchdowns, and five receptions, scoring 32.7 DKFP. Rostering both him and Newton, all but guarantees you all the touchdowns from this offense and this team has a healthy implied total.
D.J. Moore $5,600 had another strong performance last week, catching eight passes for 91 yards, marking the second consecutive week scoring at least 17 DKFP. Over the last two games, he has been peppered with 17 targets and has now seen at least five targets in six of his last seven games, so the usage is trending in the right direction. This is a really good matchup for him as the Bucs struggle against the pass. This unit has 17 receiving touchdowns (2nd most) to opposing wide outs, while surrendering 42.4 DKFP per game to the position, which is good for sixth most. His one-on-one matchup against Brent Grimes is one that he should excel in, as Moore has a 20 percent advantage rating, per PFF. Devin Funchess is expected back this week, which can be worrisome, but this talented rookie continues to improve and should continue to be a key part of this offense, so I am ok with going back to the well here.
Greg Olsen $4,100 is an option as well in a Panthers stack, as the Bucs have been atrocious against opposing tight ends. They have allowed 61 receptions (tied 7th), 827 receiving yards (most in NFL), and five touchdowns (tied 4th most), while giving up the fourth most DKFP per game. This unit also ranks 28ths in DVOA against opposing tight ends. In their last meeting several weeks back, he caught all six of his targets for 76 yards and a touchdown, which was good for 19.6 DKFP. While expecting that same outcome is not ideal, it is definitely possible and at this price that would be a great return.
Secondary Options: Devin Funchess (on track to play this week) and Curtis Samuel are both candidates for the Panthers stacks this week. This is a great matchup for both of them and this should be a good game environment. I am just prioritizing the other players I listed above ahead of them.
My favorite option: Newton/McCaffrey/Moore
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game Over/Under: 54.5
Team Implied Points: 25.5
It was Ryan Fitzpatrick, not Jameis Winston $6,000 who started for the Bucs several weeks ago against the Panthers. In that game Fitzpatrick tossed four touchdown passes. While it may not appear as relevant information, this is still the same offense and scheme that we saw in Week 9. The Panthers have been vulnerable this season against opposing quarterbacks, ranking 27th in DVOA against the pass. Carolina has surrendered 24 passing touchdowns this season, which is tied for third most, and are also yielding the sixth most DKFP per game to the position. The Bucs are a pass first team, in fact, they attempt the second most passes per game, so Winston will be slinging it in this contest. He has attempted no less than 38 passes in all games this season where he played the entire game. The upside is significant for him any time he is on the field and this is a great game environment. I would advise only to consider him in tournaments because there is a risk that if he plays bad, he could be benched. I am not worried about that happening this week, but that sort of risk is unnecessary in cash games.
Adam Humphries $4,200 continues to be a solid contributor on this offense and that is translating into consistent fantasy production. Last week, he caught 6-of-6 passes for 54 yards and a touchdown, scoring 17.4 DKFP. It was the third time in the last four games that he scores at least one touchdown and no less than 15 DKFP. Over his last five games, he has averaged 6.4 targets per game and in games this season that Jameis Winston has played all four quarters, he is averaging 6.3 targets per game. He is expected to see one-on-one coverage from Captain Munnerlyn, who Humphries has a seven percent advantage rating against, according to PFF. As a team, the Panthers have been generous against wide outs, allowing 152 receptions (6th most) for 2,010 receiving yards (5th most), and 13 receiving touchdowns to the position, while giving up the eighth most DKFP per game. This is an appealing matchup and he comes at a cheap price, making him nice pairing with Winston.
Mike Evans $8,100 has scored at least 20 DKFP in two of the three games where Winston has played the entire game this season. The two have a strong connection and this week’s matchup for Evans is a nice one. He is expected to draw James Bradberry in coverage this week, who grades out average on PFF and it is a matchup that Evans has a 16 percent advantage rating in. As I mentioned above, the Panthers have been lenient to opposing receivers, so this is a situation that Evans should exploit. He owns 22 percent of the market share for the season and is second in air yards in the league, so opportunity is not an issue. He only caught 1-of-10 targets the last time he faced this defense, but I am expecting a far better performance this week.
Secondary Options: Cameron Brate and Chris Godwin are both viable options this week as well. The Panthers have been awfully generous to tight ends this year, allowing eight receiving touchdowns (tied for most) and the second most DKFP per game to the position, putting Brate in serious consideration as a priority option in this stack.
My favorite option: Winston/Humphries
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense are in a prime spot this weekend as they face the Raiders, who are absolutely atrocious. Pairing up Mahomes with Travis Kelce, Tyreke Hill, or even Kareem Hunt makes a ton of sense, because of how favorable of a matchup this is. My biggest concern is the blowout potential, as Kansas City is a 15.5 point favorite this week and they are by far a superior team. If this game blows out, we could see some of these studs not play all four quarters, capping their ceiling. That said, in tournaments, I definitely want exposure to this offense because they should be able to score at will against Oakland.
Jared Goff and company are in a prime spot this week against the Lions who have been extremely generous to opposing signal callers. Pairing him up with Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods makes a ton of sense this week, as they should both be able to take advantage of the matchup. Josh Reynold is also firmly in play, although, he is expected to see Darius Slay in coverage. There are two concerns for me here though. The first is that Los Angeles is favored by 14 points, so there a chance for a blowout and the second is that this sets up more for a Todd Gurley game, so I do not see Goff attempting many passes. That said, he has certainly been very productive in games where he does not sling it, so it is definitely possible for him to have a big game.
Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are likely going to go overlooked this week because of how good of a spot Aaron Jones is in and his recent success. That said, I like the idea of using this stack in tournaments as a leverage play. Rodgers has immense upside and Adams is actually expected to draw David Amerson in coverage this week, who grades out below average on PFF, and it is a matchup that Adams has a 24 percent advantage rating in. The Packers do have one of the healthier implied team totals this week.
Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, you can always find me on the Twitter machine @Armando_Marsal