TheHunterReport DFS Week 5 2016

By Dave Hunter

As a long-time fantasy sports veteran, I’m quite happy to see Week 4 end. I’ve never completed a study to correlate my theory, but I truly believe that the NFL will start to settle down as we head into Week 5. Meaning: we won’t see as many crazy games and upsets as we did during the first four weeks of the season. Defenses are settling in a bit, quarterbacks are starting to get comfortable tossing to their receivers and things just get a bit easier to project and predict from here on out. That’s my theory-thought anyway.

I finished 197,530 out of 256,904 in the DraftKings NFL $4.44M Fantasy Football Millionaire [1M to 1st] contest in Week 4, once again – two weeks in a row now – finishing way out of any money spots and only scoring 114.6 points.

One day my risks will pay off to the tune of a million bucks – count on it! Until then, I’m going to keep plugging away and at least snag myself a money spot Week 5.

Check out my abysmal showing from last week:

Position	Player; Team	% Draft	Fantasy Points
QB	Cam Newton, CAR	19.5	15.6
RB	Todd Gurley, LA	1.7	13.2
RB	Terrance West, BAL	2.5	20.3
WR	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI	9.2	11.3
WR	DeSean Jackson, WAS	10.7	1.5
WR	Mike Wallace, BAL	8.6	10.7
TE	Greg Olsen, CAR	20	21.6
FLEX	Duke Johnson, Jr., CLE	1.3	13.4
DST	Panthers	2.2	7
Total			114.6

Other than the Terrance West, Greg Olsen and my Duke Johnson, Jr. picks, this lineup can be tossed in the trash. Sure, I’m proud of my West pick, but, man, I say “yikes” on the rest of this lineup. I guess my plan of loading up on Carolina Panthers’ players last week was weak sauce. I really thought Cam Newton would go insane in Week 4. Ugh.

QUARTERBACK

Top Level
Tom Brady, NE @ Cleveland Browns ($7,500) – It’s difficult not to dive right into Brady his first week off league suspension. We’ll see plenty of action from Brady, Rob Gronkowski and the entire Patriots offense. After being completely stuffed by the Bills in Week 4, we’re not going to see a passive Pats club. I expect at least two TD throws from Brady, but I’m paying up for the chance that we’ll see three TDs.

Other choices: Philip Rivers, SD @ Oakland Raiders ($6,900); Derek Carr, OAK vs. San Diego Chargers ($6,900)

Mid-Range
Carson Wentz, PHI @ Detroit Lions ($6,400) – You have to love the matchup for Wentz facing the Lions against their weak pass defense. Wentz, who has played very well so far this season, is not a value by any means at $6.4K, although he may be avoided by other DFS owners looking to pay up instead. Wentz is more of a tournament play, although using him in a cash lineup could work too amongst the right mix of players.

Other choices: Eli Manning, NYG @ Green Bay Packers ($6,000); Andy Dalton, CIN @ Dallas Cowboys ($5,900)

Value
Sam Bradford, MIN vs. Houston Texans ($5,100) – If you’re spending in this range at QB you shouldn’t expect miracles. Bradford has been solid, averaging 15 FPPG, so if you end up drafting superstars at WR and/or RB you can look at Bradford to fit in at QB. Bradford has yet to throw an INT this season over three games – don’t you dig the efficiency?

Other choices: Tyrod Taylor, BUF @ Los Angeles Rams ($5,200)

Over-Value
Kirk Cousins, WAS @ Baltimore Ravens ($6,100) – I don’t feel like spending $6.1K to find out if Cousins can repeat what Derek Carr and the Raiders did to the Ravens in Week 4. I like the Ravens to bounce back, and that means Cousins will be limited.

RUNNING BACK

Top Level
C.J. Anderson, DEN vs. Atlanta Falcons ($6,900) – There are some good RB options to choose from this week, with Anderson as a perfect example for most lineup scenarios. He’s sub $7K and gets a solid matchup with the Falcons’ 29th ranked rush defense. We all know we shouldn’t get too caught up in matchups, but it’s important for a guy like Anderson. The Broncos may lean his way even more in Week 5.

Other choices: Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($6,800); Todd Gurley, LA vs. Buffalo Bills ($6,500)

Mid-Range
Jordan Howard, CHI @ Indianapolis Colts ($5,200) – Howard’s 4.8 YPC average last week was quite fine, eh? He draws another favorable matchup for the Bears, who plan on giving him the ball 20-25 times (my solid guess). Howard represents solid value at this $5.2 K mid-range price point against a Colts defense that’s still recovering from a cross-Atlantic flight.

Other choices: Frank Gore, IND vs. Chicago Bears ($5,700)

Value
Terrance West, BAL vs. Washington Redskins ($4,800) – There’s obvious risk suggesting West, although the risk sort of gets pushed away with the matchup facing the Redskins and what he did in Week 4 facing the Raiders. The largest risk to me is if the Ravens plan on ignoring Justin Forsett again, giving West the bulk of the carries once more. I’m betting they do, hence the suggestion to give West a whirl.

Other choices: Devonta Freeman, ATL @ Denver Broncos ($5,000)

Over-Value
Lamar Miller, HOU @ Minnesota Vikings ($6,300) – The Vikings defense is way real. Expect the Purple People Eaters to keep Miller wrangled in, not earning his $6.3K price tag. You could do better this week for the dollars spent.

WIDE RECEIVER

Top Level
Odell Beckham, Jr., NYG vs. Tennessee Titans ($8,500) – You can see the massive effort that Beckham is putting forth each week, so I do expect his heart and talent for the game to pay off generously for those that can afford to spend $8.5K. Beckham will be in a few of my lineups this week facing the Packers.

Other choices: Antonio Brown, PIT vs. New York Jets ($9,800); Jordy Nelson, GB vs. New York Giants ($7,900)

Mid-Range
Jordan Matthews, PHI @ Detroit Lions ($6,800) – Matthews has a few things going for him this week: 1) Extra rest off the bye week; 2) Good matchup; 3) Solid overall price point that allows some flexibility in your lineup build. I could see Matthews slipping under the radar with some owners, and I really like him for cash lineups.

Other choices: Demaryius Thomas, DEN vs. Atlanta Falcons ($6,900); Julian Edelman, NE @ Cleveland Browns ($6,700)

Value
Nelson Agholor, PHI @ Detroit Lions ($3,500) – I absolutely love the price tag. I see a score in sight for Agholor, and roughly 60-70 yards. I’ll take that for sure at Agholor’s $3.5 K price. Agholor is a sneaky lineup addition for your club this week, which certainly plays into a Studs-and-Duds lineup approach.

Other choices: Sterling Shepard, NYG @ Green Bay Packers ($5,500)

Over-Value
Marvin Jones, Jr., DET vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($7,600) – I know Jones, Jr. has 36 targets to this point, which is something we cannot ignore, but I don’t feel comfortable paying almost $8K for Jones, Jr. against a stout Philly defense.

TIGHT END

Top Level
Rob Gronkowski, NE @ Cleveland Browns ($6,500)
Mid-Range
Delanie Walker, TEN @ Miami Dolphins ($4,700)
Value
Kyle Rudolph, MIN vs. Houston Texans ($3,600)

Good luck in Week 5! Feel free to stalk me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy