TheHunterReport DFS Week 8 2016

By Dave Hunter

In Week 7, I played the DraftKings NFL $4.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [1M to 1st] contest with very similar results to the last bunch of weeks. This is getting old, staying so mediocre and not cashing. Sure, I could increase my chances by submitting a bunch of lineups – you have to have a fat bankroll for that and I’m only a minimum-dollar guy. So, anteing up with a $20 bill is about all I can do each week. Yeah, I’m cheap, but smart and stay within my limit. That means I’m only putting up one lineup each week, but I’m totally okay with that.

I finished 168,918 out of 245,664 totaling 136.64 points:

Position	Player; Team	% Draft	Fantasy Points
QB	Blake Bortles, JAC	8	15.14
RB	Mike Gillislee, BUF	9.6	2
RB	Jacquizz Rodgers, TB	39	20.3
WR	Jamison Crowder, WAS	9.1	20.8
WR	Julio Jones, ATL	41.9	29.4
WR	Allen Robinson, JAC	25.7	2.9
TE	Travis Kelce, KC	6.7	4.4
FLEX	DeMarco Murray, TEN	41.7	24.7
DST	Ravens	16.5	17
Total			136.64

QUARTERBACK
Top Level
Aaron Rodgers, GB @ Atlanta Falcons ($7,500) – Rodgers sticks out the most to me this week, mainly due to the Atlanta matchup and that he threw the ball 56 times last week against the Bears. I see Rodgers throwing the ball a ton yet again, considering Eddie Lacy was just placed on IR and Ty Montgomery isn’t exactly a household running back name. I see 50-plus passing attempts once more for Rodgers, who will be well worth his $7.5 K price tag.

Other choices: Russell Wilson, SEA @ New Orleans Saints ($7,200); Matt Ryan, ATL vs. Green Bay Packers ($7,000)

Mid-Range
Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ @ Cleveland Browns ($6,200) – I almost feel obligated to list Fitzpatrick here. Why? The matchup, of course, is the hapless Browns, so you get where I’m coming from. Sure, the Browns will probably win a game this season, but the Jets and their newly revamped defense are primed for a wipeout. If you want to stay away from top-dollar talent, Fitzpatrick isn’t a bad risk.

Other choices: Derek Carr, OAK @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,900); Alex Smith, KC @ Indianapolis Colts ($5,800)

Value
Brock Osweiler, HOU vs. Detroit Lions ($5,400) – I know Osweiler was awful on Monday Night Football, so don’t feel obligated here. This suggestion is more about tossing the QB aside in your lineup, assuming your intention is to load up on RB and WR. Still, you have to dig the matchup. Osweiler is facing the Lions worst-ranked pass defense and that means he should get the ball to DeAndre Hopkins and company.

Other choices: Carson Wentz, PHI @ Dallas Cowboys ($5,100)

Over-Value
Matthew Stafford, DET @ Houston Texans ($6,400) – The Texans are a different team at home – they win – and I’m not thrilled with the idea of Stafford racking up points, because he won’t. I’d avoid Stafford at this price, on the road and with an inconsistent offense at play. Plus, the matchup isn’t great on paper. And we all know how valuable paper is, eh?

RUNNING BACK
Top Level
David Johnson, ARI @ Carolina Panthers ($7,700) – Duh, obvious as can be! That doesn’t mean I shouldn’t list Johnson as a reminder that he’s easily the best RB in the game right now. Don’t you love his receiving ability out of the backfield? Feel free to slot Johnson into ALL your lineups, assuming you can work in his salary.

Other choices: Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($7,200); Spencer Ware, KC @ Indianapolis Colts ($6,800)

Mid-Range
Matt Forte, NYJ @ Cleveland Browns ($6,400) – Forte’s $6.4 K price tag isn’t exactly the mid-range target I usually go after, but his salary is way interesting. It’s sort of a questionable price, don’t you think? It’s almost as if Forte should be priced higher. We should take advantage, right? Hmm, either way I’m fine loading Forte into my lineups, especially in cash league setups.

Other choices: C.J. Anderson, DEN vs. San Diego Chargers ($5,900); Jacquizz Rodgers, TB vs. Oakland Raiders ($5,800): Melvin Gordon, SD @ Denver Broncos ($5,700)

Value
Jonathan Stewart, CAR vs. Arizona Cardinals ($4,900) – The matchup isn’t good, so consider that. I like Stewart to give plenty of production in the Panthers offense, so that means Stewart should get at least 15 touches. I don’t expect the Cardinals to be stout enough on defense to stop Stewart. Yeah, yeah, I know they just played the Seahawks to a 6-6 tie. It’s not enough for me to shy away from Stewart sitting below a $5 K price tag.

Other choices: James White, NE @ Buffalo Bills ($4,800); Latavius Murray, OAK @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,500)

Over-Value
Christine Michael, SEA @ New Orleans Saints ($7,300) – The matchup is fantastic and Michael will be looking to bounce back after last week’s poor showing, but I just don’t see Michael fulfilling his price point. Maybe I’m wrong on him this week. Maybe I’m not. I feel much more comfortable going with Ezekiel Elliott or David Johnson.

WIDE RECEIVER
Top Level
Mike Evans, TB vs. Oakland Raiders ($8,100) – Let’s pile on the Raiders’ defense, shall we? I mean, the Raiders don’t care as long as their offense keeps racking up the points. This is a great game for Evans to shine, as he did last week facing the Niners. Evans is a lock at $8.1 K as far as I’m concerned. If you want to spend $9.6 K on Julio Jones, go right ahead – just be prepared to cut down everywhere else.

Other choices: T.Y. Hilton, IND vs. Kansas City Chiefs ($7,900)

Mid-Range
Doug Baldwin, SEA @ New Orleans Saints ($6,900) – Matchup, matchup, matchup. Baldwin gets a chance to show DFS owners that he’s so worthwhile in Week 8. You can’t ask for a better matchup than what he’s been given, playing in New Orleans. Yowza - sign me up!

Other choices: Emmanuel Sanders, DEN vs. San Diego Chargers ($6,500); Terrelle Pryor, CLE vs. New York Jets ($6,100)

Value
Jordan Matthews, PHI @ Dallas Cowboys ($5,700) – Matthews will bounce back this week – count on it. He’s a gamble, sure, but I just don’t see him fading away like he did last week. Matthews will get lots of looks in the passing game and I see a score as well in Week 8. Don’t be surprised if Matthews steps up to the challenge and surpasses expectations.

Other choices: Ty Montgomery, GB @ Atlanta Falcons ($5,300)

Over-Value
Brandon Marshall, NYJ @ Cleveland Browns ($7,800) – Marshall facing the Browns seems too good to be true, doesn’t it? Marshall has only averaged 13.6 FPPG to this point, a number that is much lower than what I expected to this point. Marshall might bounce back this week; I just don’t see him getting too nutty facing the Browns. The Jets will take advantage of the running game and Fitzpatrick will spread the ball around.

TIGHT END
Top Level
Rob Gronkowski, NE @ Buffalo Bills ($7,000)
Mid-Range
Jimmy Graham, SEA @ New Orleans Saints ($6,100)
Value
Travis Kelce, KC @ Indianapolis Colts ($4,900)

Good luck in Week 8! Feel free to stalk me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy