THE SHADOW KNOWS Week 16 2021

THE SHADOW KNOWS: Week 16

Every year, Schedule Santa leaves fans of the NFL some gifts. No sooner does the schedule come out than fans start circling the season's biggest matchups. Meetings with rivals. Potential Super Bowl previews.

Well, the league's players are fans too in a way, and as Kevin Patra reported for NFL.com back in August, Minnesota Vikings wideout Justin Jefferson made it clear that he's been looking forward to Minnesota's Week 16 home date with Jalen Ramsey and the Los Angeles Rams for some time now.

"I'm waiting," Jefferson said. "That game is circled. That game is circled for me."

Whether the second-year pro will still feel the same after the game is another matter altogether. After another excellent season, Ramsey was just named to his fifth consecutive Pro Bowl. As a matter of fact, ESPN's Matt Bowen recently went so far as to name the 27-year-old the NFL's best all-around player at his position.

"He's the prototype for the position when we look at his coverage ability, length, short-area speed and ability to set an edge in the run game," Bowen said. "Plus, we've also seen Ramsey's versatility this season in coordinator Raheem Morris' defense. He has logged 526 of his 743 total reps inside at the "star" and nickel positions for a unit that has played zone on 68.9% of coverage snaps. Now, Ramsey can still match up and play man coverage versus any wide receiver in the NFL. We have fresh tape on that, too. And he's still creating on the ball production with three interceptions and 11 pass breakups. But we are also seeing his complete skill set this year -- from multiple alignments."

It's possible we could see Ramsey play in "shadow" coverage against Jefferson, especially if Adam Thielen (ankle) is unable to go Sunday. The Rams haven't used Ramsey in that capacity regularly, but he has taken on elite talents like Seattle's DK Metcalf, Davante Adams of the Packers and Tampa's Mike Evans over the past two seasons.

However, even if the game's best cornerback does spend most of Sunday's matchup across from Jefferson, the number of people who can afford to consider sitting fantasy's No. 3 WR is exactly zero.
 

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (Stefon Diggs vs. J.C. Jackson)

New England's J.C. Jackson is just the latest Patriots cornerback to go from undrafted free agent to elite player at the position. But as Chris Mason reported for Mass Live, Jackson wants to be more than just a Pro Bowler. He wants to be considered a true lockdown cornerback and the best in the game at what he does.

"I want to be a Hall of Famer, Pro Bowl, All-Pro. I mean, that's what you play for: You play to be the best. You play to compete," Jackson said. "I'm a lockdown corner, I like to be on the island. That's what I get paid to do. I'm trying to create my own island. I haven't come up with a name yet, but it's coming real soon."

Jackson is a big part of the reason that the Patriots have allowed the second-fewest PPR fantasy points to wide receivers this season-he has allowed less than 51 percent of the passes thrown in his direction to be completed with a passer rating against of just 40.8. In two meetings with the Patriots last year, Buffalo's Stefon Diggs went off to the tune of 15 catches for 237 yards and three touchdowns. But having that level of success (or close to it) in what may be Week 16's biggest game is going to be a tall ask.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (Antonio Brown vs. Stephon Gilmore)

Last week's loss to the New Orleans Saints was a disaster for the Buccaneers in just about every way imaginable-in addition to being shut out, Tampa lost wide receiver Chris Godwin to a season-ending ACL tear and saw wideout Mike Evans (hamstring) and running back Leonard Fournette (ankle) also suffer significant injuries. But there's at least some good news in Week 16-after serving a three-game suspension for using falsified COVID vaccination credentials, Antonio Brown is back with the team.

Earlier this season, Tampa head coach Bruce Arians indicated the Buccaneers had considered releasing Brown. But while speaking with Tiki & Tierney on CBS Sports Radio, Arians said he's now willing to give the veteran wideout one last chance.

"I wasn't very proud of what he did this time [with the phony vaccine card], but I've got a spot in my heart for him now," Arians said. "I think he's working at it. He's still got a ways to go. He's working hard at it."

The good news for Brown's fantasy managers is that if Evans is out Brown should get peppered with targets. The bad news is that if Evans is out Brown will also draw former NFL Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore-and he'll likely have help over the top.

There's considerable upside present with AB in Week 16. But between the layoff and the matchup, there's a fair bit of risk as well.

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (Terry McLaurin vs. Trevon Diggs)

The Dallas Cowboys can clinch the NFC East with a win at home on Sunday night against their rivals in Washington. In players like quarterback Dak Prescott, running back Ezekiel Elliott and wide receivers Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, the Dallas offense has no shortage of firepower. But as Kevin Rice reported for Inside the Star, it's an opportunistic Cowboys defense that has really been the story in Big D.

"The Cowboys' defense forces turnovers on 17% of drives and only allows a touchdown on 19% of drives," he wrote. "Those are truly staggering numbers. This means the Cowboys are almost just as likely to force a turnover as giving up a touchdown at the start of the opposing teams' possession. In total, the Cowboys had 26 combined interceptions from 2018-2020. This year through 14 games, they already have 23 interceptions. Through 14 games last year, the defense had created only seven interceptions."

Second-year cornerback Trevon Diggs is pacing the team (and the NFL) with 10 interceptions on the way to his first Pro Bowl. But while Diggs has been the NFL's pre-eminent ball-hawk, he has also been beaten over the top more than once. Still, given Washington's offensive struggles, McLaurin's inconsistent production this season and a less than optimal matchup, "Scary Terry" is only frightening for the folks forced to start him.

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (DeVante Parker vs. Marshon Lattimore)

Both the Miami Dolphins and fantasy managers will no doubt be glad to see rookie Jaylen Waddle back in the starting lineup this week after the rookie was activated from the COVID-19 list. Some of those same fantasy managers, however, may have concerns that Waddle will come back just in time to draw coverage from Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Per Jamey Eisenberg of CBS Sports, those concerns should be shifted to veteran wide receiver DeVante Parker.

"Jaylen Waddle is back, and he should have success in the slot against New Orleans," Eisenberg said. "But Parker should see plenty of Marshon Lattimore, who has done well in shadow situations this year, limiting the production for guys like Davante Adams, Terry McLaurin and Mike Evans. Parker has done well at times in tough matchups like this in his career, but I don't trust Parker to deliver a big stat line in this game at New Orleans in prime time."

To be honest, Lattimore's Pro Bowl nod this year has more to do with reputation and contract size than 2021 performance-he has been as good as any player at the position in some games and roasted like a Christmas ham in others. But between the loss in target share that Parker is going to see with Waddle back and Lattimore's attention on defense, any WR3 appeal Parker had in recent weeks just went right back up the chimney.

Happy Holidays Everyone!