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crystal ball week 13 2016

By Evan Tarracciano

For the majority of standard-format leagues, Week 13 represents the final matchup of the regular season prior to the playoffs starting. Hopefully all of my thoughts and advice on players has been beneficial to our readers! This week’s options on the waiver wire were pretty thin compared to those in the past, which means that owners need to be even more reliant than usual upon their starting core to carry them to victory. Best of luck to all of our readers over at Football Diehards on bringing home the bacon in 2016!

If you haven’t already joined me for my video Q&A sessions each Tuesday evening at 8 PM EST, I’d highly encourage you to do so! I’ve received a lot of positive feedback as to my thoughts and the layout – hopefully listeners are enjoying it as much as I am running it! This article serves as a supplementary piece to what I covered in this week’s chat, expanding on some of the more “hot button” topics that I received a lot of traffic on. Check out all of my prior videos and meet me for each new one here:

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Q: Now that Sammy Watkins has returned for the Buffalo Bills, where do you rank him in the WR spectrum for the rest of 2016?
A: Watkins return will certainly give a much needed shot in the arm to the non-existent Buffalo Bills aerial attack, but I’d be hesitant to immediately vaulting him into WR1 discussions. First and foremost, the Bills offensive philosophy is centered around having a strong running game that can dominate time of possession, similar to the Dallas Cowboys. Tyrod Taylor has attempted 30 or less passes in eight of the first 11 games of the season, which means that the volume of targets for Watkins starts off low. Watkins is also returning from a major injury, and the coaching staff has said that he will be eased into action. The schedule is incredibly favorable for him, as the Bills face:

Week 13 – Oakland Raiders rank 28th in passing yards allowed
Week 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers (23rd)
Week 15 – Cleveland Browns (19th)
Week 16 – Miami Dolphins (9th)
Week 17 – New York Jets (22nd)

With all of that said, Watkins enters Week 13 as a mid-range WR2 that has moderate upside. His first game back did provide me with enough confidence to rank him higher than I originally anticipated, but I’m still hesitant to go all-in just yet.

Q: I know that you’ve been high on Matthew Stafford in the past, but he’s been downright terrible since Week 7. What gives?
A: I’ll agree that Stafford’s average numbers have diminished lately, largely in part due to his receivers failing to get any sort of separation down the field. In three of the past four games, Stafford’s average yards per attempt has been under six, which means that he has been dumping the ball off more to his running backs and tight ends rather than letting plays develop. Some of that is on the offensive line not being able to withstand any sort of rush – they have also failed to provide any holes for the running game, which has made this offense rather one-sided. The return of Ameer Abdullah in the next few weeks should help give a boost to the backfield, in addition to the Lions easier schedule coming up:

Week 13 – New Orleans Saints rank 27th in passing yards allowed
Week 14 – Chicago Bears (12th)
Week 15 – New York Giants (24th)
Week 16 – Dallas Cowboys (31st)
Week 17 – Green Bay Packers (21st)

I still have faith than Stafford will wind up as a top seven option at the position and a solid QB1 each week.

Q: I know that you said earlier that you prefer Jordy Nelson as Green Bay’s best receiver down the stretch – does Davante Adams recent performance change that? He’s been great lately!
A: The short answer is that I still prefer Nelson to Adams for the remainder of the season. Even in a game which the defense clearly attempted to remove him from the equation, Nelson still came away with 8 receptions for 91 yards. Additionally, last week was also the first since Week 7 that Nelson didn’t score a touchdown. Nelson currently ranks as the 6th best WR in PPR formats, which is a testament to his skills considering he’s coming off of a major injury.

Adams has definitely made improvements this season – my biggest knock on him has always been his stone hands. It helps that Aaron Rodgers has been dropping dimes left and right, putting passes that only Adams could catch and that the defensive backs have no prayer defending. Adams has been a legit WR2 with upside each week, compiling 8 touchdowns on 58 receptions – while that is impressive, that sort of rate is unsustainable. Both players are top 10 options on a weekly basis, with Adams being more reliant upon scores while Nelson has more consistent targets.

Q: The offensive rookie of the year in 2016 will be______?
A: Ezekiel Elliott, and I don’t think that it is particularly close. I thought going into the season that Sterling Shepard would be more involved in the New York Giants offense, but few can argue that Elliott is truly a special talent. Perhaps his only competition is his teammate Dak Prescott.

Waiver-Wire choices

A quick note from the Wizard: Before I dive into my waiver wire players this week, let me start off by saying that this is a particularly scare week for relevant options who are owned in less than 20-25 percent of leagues. Certain league formats also limit waiver-wire moves as the playoffs start, so before you research who is available or drop any FAAB on them, make sure to check on your league’s specific ruleset.

Quarterback:

Matt Barkley (Chicago Bears) – The most obvious choice to write about (once again) would be Colin Kaepernick, and for good reason – he’s been a top 5 QB for the past four weeks straight. While Kap’s ownership still remains lower than it should at 35 percent, I’m opting to go in a different direction for the sake of avoiding redundancy. So why Barkley, and what does he bring to the table? Barkley’s big performance against the Tennessee Titans last week (316 passing yards and 3 touchdowns) certainly opened up my eyes, especially considering that his team did very little to help him out by committing an egregious 10 drops. Barkley faces off against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13 and as a squad they rank in the middle of the NFL, allowing a shade more than 250 passing yards each week. I can see Barkley attempting more than 40 passes again this week, despite having a strong running game which he can fall back on. I wouldn’t classify any of his receiving options as “elite”, but all have their own niche which they can exploit. Barkley is mainly an option in two QB formats, or for Marcus Mariota owners who don’t have a serviceable backup.

Running Back:

Kenneth Dixon (Baltimore Ravens) – Dixon has been ascending through my weekly FLEX ranks to the point where I can safely designate him as a low-end starter each week. His floor is greatly boosted by the team’s willingness to use him in the passing game, and each week he should catch between 4-6 passes, especially if they are playing from behind. Owners may not realize that he has a very similar body-type to Terrance West, as they are the same height and just 10 lbs. apart, but in terms of athleticism and physical skills Dixon is the far superior talent. The Ravens have finally seen the light, keeping Dixon on the field for more snaps than West last week, and providing him with more touches. The torch is clearly being passed here, albeit more slowly than some would have hoped for. We still have yet to see his big breakout game occur, but it won’t be long. Add him now in all formats (especially in PPR leagues) if he is still available, as he has RB2 upside for the rest of the season.
Charles Sims (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – I recommended Sims as a target in last week’s article, so hopefully owners paid attention and pounced on him being owned in less than 10 percent of leagues. Eligible to return this upcoming week, Sims will certainly cut into Doug Martin’s touches when he is on the field, especially given his struggles since returning. While Martin remains the favorite in terms of total touches, owners can expect Sims to slide back into the role which started the season in – a third down and pass catching option on a team that likes to air it out early and often. While his upside and ceiling is capped due to Martin and Jacquizz Rodger’s presence, Sims will accrue enough touches to warrant consideration in 12 team or larger PPR leagues.

Wide Receiver:

Marquess Wilson (Chicago Bears) – I said it once and I’ll say it again – Wilson is the receiving option to own in Chicago. While the Bears would prefer to run the ball 40 times a game, their woefully inept defense will put them in a position where they need to throw, and Wilson has already demonstrated that he has a solid rapport with Matt Barkley. A physically gifted athlete with a tremendous catch radius, Wilson gives Barkley a large target to look for down the field. While he doesn’t possess Julio Jones-esque top end speed, if given time Wilson can find holes down the field in zone coverage to work in. He’s a nice FLEX option in most standard size leagues.
Malcolm Mitchell (New England Patriots) – The argument can be easily made that Mitchell is no more than a dart throw since Chris Hogan is back healthy and is a larger outside threat for the Patriots. While I understand that line of thought, Hogan hasn’t done much to prove to me that he is the team’s best “X” option while mighty midgets Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman work out of the slot. So what kind of upside does Mitchell have? He’s 6’1 200 lbs. and ran a 4.45 40 yard dash at the combine. Known for his elite routing-running abilities and high upside, many experts lauded the Patriots selecting him in the fourth round. Simply put, the upside is there, but he needs to see more snaps to vault himself into the weekly starter territory. Is he a risky play? Sure. But the high ceiling warrants a bid, especially in this high-powered offense.

Tight End:

Lance Kendricks (St.Louis Rams) – Kendricks’ ownership has risen steadily of late, and now that Jared Goff is at the helm, things have really begun to open up for the Rams passing attack. Kendricks has a solid floor of 6-7 targets per week, which puts him on the low-end of the TE1 spectrum. With so many tight ends nursing injuries (looking at you, Rob Gronkowski) Kendricks is an intriguing option to acquire, especially because outside of Kenny Britt the team doesn’t have a true red-zone threat.