TheHunterReport DFS Week3 2016

By Dave Hunter
Dave Hunter How many of you had Stefon Diggs in your DFS lineups? Good for you. Unfortunately, I wasn’t one of these genius folks. If you were fortunate enough to speculate on Diggs’ fortuitous day, I’m pretty sure you placed well in your leagues; however, I did get return on my one lineup investment, winning $30 on a $20 entry fee, in which I placed 56,369 out of 277,286 in the DraftKings NFL $5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [1M to 1st].

This was my 9/18 lineup:

Position Player % Draft Fantasy Points
QB Blake Bortles, JAC 7.5 24.56
RB LeGarrette Blount, NE 12.1 21.3
RB Latavius Murray, OAK 7.2 22.1
WR Odell Beckham, Jr., NYG 27 16.6
WR Allen Robinson, JAC 10 8.4
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG 9.6 22.7
TE Gary Barnidge, CLE 9.4 7.7
FLEX Dontrelle Inman, SD 0.6 1.7
DST Cardinals 2.4 23
Total 148.06

Keeping things completely real here, I’m not one of these DFS players that are able to submit hundreds of lineups on any given day. I know the sort of player I am, I know the type of bankroll I can manage. However, one thing that you must realize: ownership percentage is huge in tournament play. With ownership percentage, also comes superstar player lineup variance. What I mean by that is more often than not the winning tournament lineup will not have many Cam Newton’s, Odell Beckham, Jr’s, Antonio Brown’s, etc. First, it’s impossible to build superstar players throughout considering salary restrictions as you’ve got to hit on the Stefon Diggs’ of the week. As an example, check out the $1M winning DraftKings lineup that Al_Smizzle posted:

Position Player % Draft Fantasy Points
QB Cam Newton, CAR 9.6 34.82
RB LeGarrette Blount, NE 12.1 21.3
RB David Johnson, ARI 14.7 17.3
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR 13.6 32.8
WR Travis Benjamin, SD 15.6 32.4
WR Marvin Jones, Jr., DET 8.8 22.8
TE Antonio Gates, SD 3.8 10.5
FLEX Stefon Diggs, MIN 5.4 36.2
DST Broncos 4.6 22
Total 230.12

Other than Cam Newton and David Johnson, Al_Smizzle loaded up with high risk/high reward players. I did the same thing, sort of, but got nothing out of Dontrelle Inman. Plus, the superstar players I picked in Allen Robinson and Odell Beckham, Jr. were highly underwhelming. Okay, maybe I could get away with Beckham’s production on some weeks, just not this week if I wanted to finish higher in winnings. Still, two weeks in a row I’ve entered three lineups in the $5M lineup and have netted a return. Again, I’ll take it.
Let’s move on to Week 3, shall we? This week my lineup will be entered into the DraftKings NFL $4.44M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M]. Yay.


Top Level
Andrew Luck, IND vs. San Diego Chargers ($7,600) – I like Aaron Rodgers ($7,700) this week as well, so if you’re feeling inclined to go with him over Luck I have no issue with that at all. Luck is a slightly greater risk for me, although a good play in cash and tournament plays. I like a nice bounceback week for him facing the Chargers in Indy and I believe folks will shy away from him considering his Denver output. I may be wrong but I’ll take that chance. One thing we’ve come to realize in the first couple of weeks of the NFL season: The Chargers are lacking defensively.

Other choices: Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. Detroit Lions ($7,700); Russell Wilson, SEA vs. San Francisco 49ers ($7,100)

Eli Manning, NYG vs. Washington Redskins ($7,000) – Is this the week where Odell Beckham, Jr. goes nuts? Maybe. I certainly like his chances facing the Redskins pass defense, and even more so I like Manning, who has some lovely weapons to toss to this season. I’m expecting at least 2 TD passes from Manning with over 300 passing yards, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see higher numbers. Manning is a solid cash and tournament play, although I’m leaning towards using him more in a tournament setting.

Other choices: Matthew Stafford, DET @ Green Bay Packers ($6,800)

Marcus Mariota, TEN vs. Oakland Raiders ($5,900) – Mariota has averaged right around 18 FPG over his first two contests in 2016 – not bad, huh? I know it’s only two weeks, but the Raiders have been awful against the pass to this point. It seems like there’s some solid value here in tournament play, and while I’m tempted to throw Mariota in cash lineups too I’ll just stick to tournaments. I mean, it’s not like the value is that good and Mariota is a legit option week-to-week. Not yet anyway.

Other choices: Joe Flacco, BAL @ Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,100)

Cam Newton, CAR @ Minnesota Vikings ($7,800) – I know Newton is good, real good. And, I know that he had an outstanding Week 2; however, I believe highly in the Vikings defense this season and think the Panthers are in for a real test in Minnesota. I don’t feel like forking over almost $8K to get Newton on roster either, so there’s that too. By the time the season is over, you’ll realize I’m not a “spend big bucks on QB” kind of guy.


Top Level
David Johnson, ARI @ Buffalo Bills ($7,700) – Johnson is your overall runner and receiver, the best in the game right now as far as I’m concerned in DFS play. I don’t mind spending up in this case to land him on roster. The Bills aren’t especially good at stopping the run and Johnson gives DFS owners so much more out of the backfield as a receiver.

Other choices: Todd Gurley, LA @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,100); Matt Forte, NYJ @ Kansas City Chiefs ($7,000)

Melvin Gordon, SD @ Indianapolis Colts ($5,800) – How about my Gordon suggestion last week? I’m pretty happy I helped a few of you out last week; just wish I would’ve added Gordon to my own lineup! I know, I know, it’s one of those deals where you can’t fit everyone into your lineup. This week is another good week to slot Gordon in if you can manage his salary, which you should be able to do so considering his sub-$6K price tag. The matchup is attractive and with Danny Woodhead done for the season, Gordon will get plenty of touches moving forward. Even as a receiver out of the backfield.

Other choices: Jamaal Charles, KC vs. New York Jets ($5,600)

Charles Sims, TB vs. Los Angeles Rams ($4,900) – Sims is a sneaky play. He should net some added touches with Doug Martin questionable with an MRI injury. Sims is already a nice receiving option out of the backfield, but in tournament play he provides that under-the-radar option that I was referring to earlier in my write-up. The Rams showed nice defensive fortitude last week; although I’m not convinced they’ll do so well in a coast-to-coast trip headed to Florida.

Other choices: Theo Riddick, DET @ Green Bay Packers ($4,900)

Spencer Ware, KC vs. New York Jets ($5,700) – Jamaal Charles is expected back in Week 3, so Ware’s value takes a hit. He’s not worth the $5.7K price tag, not with Charles roaming the Chiefs backfield. I truly believe Charles will be 100%. The Chiefs were smart not to rush him back and to rely upon Ware for the first couple of weeks. What about, now? That’s over. Expect Charles to get the ball.


Top Level
Odell Beckham, Jr., NYG vs. Washington Redskins ($9,100) – ODB drops $400 from last week and he faces a weak Redskins pass D? Yes, gimee. I know I’ve been a bit overzealous on ODB to this point but he’s worth it, ya know? If you’re spending up at WR he’s the guy you want.

Other choices: Dez Bryant, DAL vs. Chicago Bears ($8,400)

Amari Cooper, OAK @ Tennessee Titans ($7,700) – Okay, so I’m pretty sure that Allen Robinson is going to go off since I’m not recommending him this week. Take that as you will, although I’m much happier slotting Cooper into my lineup at $7.7K. We should see an interesting offensive day out of the Titans/Raiders in Week 3, with Cooper netting high double-digit fantasy points.

Other choices: T.Y. Hilton, IND vs. San Diego Chargers ($6,800)

Sterling Shepard, NYG vs. Washington Redskins ($5,500) – Yeah, unoriginality leaves me here as I suggested Shepard last week, but the matchup is yet attractive once more. Shepard is a fantastic second option in the Giants passing game and is going to continue to be a good target for Eli Manning moving forward. Other than Mike Wallace who has his merits below, Shepard is my favorite WR value-play.

Other choices: Mike Wallace, BAL @ Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,000); DaVante Parker, MIA vs. Cleveland Browns ($4,900)

Antonio Brown, PIT @ Philadelphia Eagles ($9,600) – Almost $10K for Brown? Ugh. No thanks. Maybe I’m the fool here, I don’t know. I just can’t bring myself to spend this kind of salary on Brown.


Top Level
Jordan Reed, WAS @ New York Giants ($6,500)

Travis Kelce, KC vs. New York Jets ($4,700)

Delanie Walker, TEN vs. Oakland Raiders ($5,000)

Greg Olsen, CAR @ Minnesota Vikings ($5,800)

Good luck in Week 3! Feel free to stalk me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy