Vegas vs Fantasy Week 4 2018

By Armando Marsal

It was not until I began playing DFS that I started using Vegas lines as part of my research and a determining factor when setting up my lineups. These lines can provide so much information each week. It gives you an idea of the potential game flow we could expect. High totals and close spreads, usually indicates a potential shootout. Whereas, a low total with a low spread is a game that is not expected to have a lot of fantasy goodness aside from maybe a defense. These lines are set by math wizards and some of the best handicappers in the world. They spend countless hours studying patterns, teams, and situations. For those who are not familiar, spreads are the amount of points a team is expected to win or lose by. The point total is the amount of points both teams combined are projected to score.

My goal each week is to look through the lines, paint a picture as to what to expect in different situations, and how to attack that game. Let’s dive right into it.

The chart below shows the two games this week with the highest point totals. I included where it opened and the current live line. This can give you an idea of where the public is putting their money on. Generally if the total opens at one number and it begins to rise, the public is betting the over and vice versa.

Game	Open Total	Live Total	Movement
Falcons vs. Bengals	48	53	5
Giants vs. Saints	49.5	51.5	2

The Falcons and Bengals contest has the highest over/under of the slate and it jumped five points from when it opened, which is a significant amount. At this time 82 percent of the bets are on the over. The Falcons have a 28.5 implied team total and are four point favorites, while the Bengals have a 24.5 implied team total. It is worth noting that the Bengals team total increase by 3.25 points from where it opened. It appears that the bettors are in favor of the Bengals against the spread as they are receiving 56 percent of the bets. This is a potential game stack this weekend and there are some really interesting prices to take advantage of. On the Bengals side, Andy Dalton is way too cheap on DraftKings, especially in a matchup against the 25th ranked defense in DVOA against the pass. Giovani Bernard is one of my favorite plays this week as he handles the majority of the backfield’s workload with Joe Mixon out. The Falcons struggle to defend pass catching backs and Bernard has shown the ability to be an efficient pass catcher, so this should be considered a great situation with plenty of potential for him. The pass catchers on this offense, A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, and Tyler Eifert are all in play. Boyd is arguably the best value play of the bunch as he remains under $5K on DraftKings and is playing really well right now. On Atlanta’s side there is also plenty to like. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Tevin Coleman are all viable options. Devonta Freeman has already been ruled out for Week 4, so Coleman should once against receive plenty of work. Ridley remains way too cheap after his performances over the last two games. Neither defense is on my shortlist this week.

To no surprise, the Saints game is in this category as we have seen a couple times this season. They head to New York to take on the Giants in the second highest over/under of the slate. At this time, 82 percent of the bets are on the over, which is likely a reason this total has jumped two points since it opened. The Giants have an implied team total of 24 points, while the Saints have an implied team total of 27.5 points. New Orleans is a 3.5 points road favorite and they are currently receiving 55 percent of the bets against the spread. This is my favorite game of the week as I really like both offenses quite a bit. Let’s start with the favorites. This will be the first time the Saints are not playing in a dome this season and that is something that I have some concerns about. That said, the Giants rank 24th in DVOA against the pass, so this is a defense that Drew Brees should be able to pick apart. He has been throwing more this season than he did last year and part of that has to do with Mark Ingram’s absence, but also with how bad the Saints defense has been. Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara are both elite options in this matchup, and make for great plays. If I am choosing between the two, I lean on Kamara simply because of his involvement in the red zone. Ben Watson is also appealing for the Saints, as the Giants can struggle immensely against the tight end position. Now onto New York’s offense. Eli Manning is in a great spot against the Saints defense ranking dead last in DVOA against the pass. They have been atrocious in defending the pass, allowing the most touchdown passes this season. He is too cheap considering the matchup and potential game script. The pass catchers here are firmly in play as well, Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard should see plenty of looks this weekend. Shepard is way underpriced when you consider his potential role increase with Evan Engram out and the matchup. He is a receiver I am very bullish on this weekend. You cannot talk about this offense without mentioning Saquon Barkley who has a significant role on this offense and is a stud. He can make plays against anyone, even more so against a mediocre Saints defense.

Game	Open O/U	Live O/U	Move
Jaguars vs. Jets	38	38.5	0.5

The Jets and Jaguars game is one that offers little to no fantasy goodness. This contest has the lowest over/under and even though 52 percent of the bets are on the over, it will not affect the way I approach this game. The Jets have a 15.5 point implied team total, while the Jaguars have a 23 point implied team total. Jacksonville is a 7.5 home favorite and they are receiving 61 percent of the bets against the spread. There is not too much to like about this game for the exception of the Jaguars defense who is in a great spot against the Jets. They could go overlooked in DFS with a lot of love out there for the Chargers defense, so it may be a spot I go to if I am paying up for defense this week. Aside from that, this game is a full fade for me.

The last thing I want to cover is the game with the biggest spread.

Teams	Spread
Chargers	10.5
49ers	-10.5

The Chargers host the 49ers this weekend and are the biggest favorites on the main slate at 10.5 points. This game has a 46.5 over/under and 53 percent of the bets are on the under. The Chargers have a 28.5 implied team total, while the 49ers have an 18 point implied team total. The Chargers are receiving 66 percent of the bets against the spread, so they are getting a good amount of love. This is one of those games where I have interest in the favorite, but not a matchup I find myself having core plays from. The Chargers offense is appealing, more so on the passing side of things as the 49ers rank 29th in DVOA against the pass, while they are top 10 in DVOA against the run. So if you want to targets Philip Rivers and one of his receivers, it would not be a bad thing. Melvin Gordon’s role in the passing game puts him in play even in a subpar matchup and the same can be said about Austin Ekeler. The one player I do have a lot of interest in is Mike Williams, who I feel is way underpriced. From the 49ers side, there is little to like as I do respect this Chargers defense despite their subpar start to the season. You can consider George Kittle as an upside tournament play as he may see plenty of looks, but that is about it for me. The Chargers defense is firmly in play in this matchup, but I prefer paying up a bit more for the Jaguars in DFS.

Vegas lines are very helpful and prop bets can be as well. You can see yardage totals, projected touchdowns, and all sorts of different lines that can help you project what a player is expected to do. Best of luck to all this week.

If you have any questions, you can always find me on Twitter: @Armando_Marsal