TheHunterReport DFS Week4 2016

By Dave Hunter

I finished 111,287 out of 256,904 in the DraftKings NFL $4.44M Fantasy Football Millionaire [1M to 1st] contest in Week 3, finishing way out of any money spots. I guess I can’t expect to cash every week. I know you don’t, right? Take a look at the lineup I went with:

Position	Player	% Draft	Fantasy Points
QB	Marcus Mariota, TEN	8.4	7.76
RB	Melvin Gordon, SD	42.6	17.8
RB	Charles Sims, TB	12.2	24.4
WR	Odell Beckham, Jr., NYG	8.8	22.1
WR	Victor Cruz, NYG	4.9	10
WR	Jarvis Landry, MIA	30.9	29.6
TE	Gary Barnidge, CLE	1.2	13.6
FLEX	Allen Hurns, JAC	2.8	8
DST	Panthers	4.8	3
Total			136.26

Maybe I need to step up my strategy this week, locking in a “for sure” thing at QB rather than always trying to sneak in a low-owned value option? Marcus Mariota lost a ton of worth without having Delanie Walker to throw to in Week 3. And, what was with the doubling-up thing with Odell Beckham, Jr. and Victor Cruz? I’m pretty sure that’s the second time I’ve doubled-up on receivers from the same team this season, and we’re not even into Week 4 yet! Yikes. At least I’m finding RB production, just need to stop losing out at picking a third WR and FLEX.

Let’s get right into Week 4, mainly since I hate stewing over last week’s pitiful lineup I submitted. Yuck.

QUARTERBACK

Top Level
Cam Newton, CAR @ Atlanta Falcons ($7,800) – This is a great week to get back on the Newton bandwagon, if you got off that is. Last week I suggested steering clear of Newton facing the Vikings bullheaded defense, and my advice served right. What about this week? Come on, the Falcons can’t stop a guy like Newton. Spend up in all formats - its okay.

Other choices: Drew Brees, NO @ San Diego Chargers ($7,600); Philip Rivers, SD vs. New Orleans Saints ($6,900)

Mid-Range

Kirk Cousins, WAS vs. Cleveland Browns ($6,500) – Cousins is giving DFS owners 19 FPPG so far this season. You’ve got to be happy about that, eh? It’s difficult to ignore the matchup for Cousins, so don’t. If you‘re getting stingy at QB and don’t want to spend big bucks, he’s a nice option for your lineups. Plus, Cousins has weapons, namely Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson.

Other choices: Joe Flacco, BAL vs. Oakland Raiders ($5,900)

Value

Jay Cutler, CHI vs. Detroit Lions ($5,300) – Wow. So, we’ve come to this? Recommending Cutler? And recommending an injured Cutler at that? And asking too many questions in a row? Well, going with Cutler carries an obvious caveat: Don’t draft him into your lineup if you’re concerned about his health. I, personally, love Cutler facing the Lions in a massive shootout. No Jeremy Langford, along with no conservative risk starting the season 0-3. Sneaky under-the-radar play, Cutler is.

Other choices: None

Over-Value

Matt Ryan, ATL vs. Carolina Panthers ($7,000) – Sure, Ryan could go off with Julio Jones in his passing repertoire, although I’m betting that he won’t. Ryan isn’t exactly the most consistent and reliable option in the passing game these days so don’t feel bad if you ignore Ryan. I’m ignoring him.

RUNNING BACK

Top Level

Le’Veon Bell, PIT vs. Kansas City Chiefs ($7,500) – Okay, I’m not holding back at all when it comes to Bell coming off suspension. I expect at least 25 touches, rushing and receiving combined. Sure, the Chiefs D looked incredible last week and the Steelers offense was blah, but this is a new Steelers ball club with Bell running and catching the ball. Don’t be afraid to spend up on Bell, in cash or tournament lineups.

Other choices: Ezekiel Elliott, DAL @ San Francisco 49ers ($6,900); Todd Gurley, LA @ Arizona Cardinals ($6,700)

Mid-Range

Melvin Gordon, SD vs. New Orleans Saints ($6,300) – The matchup is incredible with Gordon facing the Saints’ 32nd ranked rush defense, but the key here is how many owners will lock Gordon into their lineups? I like Gordon enough to slot him in; however, I do expect high ownership. I won’t feel bad if you decide to go another route in tournament play. Gordon is a lovely cash play though.

Other choices: Mark Ingram, NO @ San Diego ($5,900); Devonta Freeman, ATL vs. Carolina Panthers ($5,500)

Value

Duke Johnson, Jr., CLE @ Washington Redskins ($4,000) – I’m not expecting a huge day out of Johnson, just enough to make his $4 K salary worthwhile. If you’re looking to squeeze a RB into your lineup, you could do much worse than Johnson. I know in tournament play you want a boom-or-bust player, so Johnson certainly fits the bill there.

Other choices: Dexter McCluster, SD vs. New Orleans Saints ($3,500)

Over-Value

Christine Michael, SEA @ New York Jets ($6,000) – I love what Michael did last week. There’s no denying he was a fantastic late-lineup substitute to save some big bucks for folks, but this week Michael is not worth owning. The Jets have a strong rush defense and the $6 K price tag? No thanks.

WIDE RECEIVER

Top Level

DeAndre Hopkins, HOU vs. Tennessee Titans ($8,400) – I just can’t bring myself to spend over $9 K on a receiver, and that means Antonio Brown ($9,700) and Julio Jones ($9,200) will not be gracing my lineups in Week 4. You go ahead if you want to; I just see so many good WR values out there this weekend to even slot those kinds of dollars towards an upper-tier WR. Hopkins gives you a good-base WR to build a lineup around. I like Hopkins to bounce back in a big way facing the Titans.

Other choices: Alshon Jeffery, CHI vs. Detroit Lions ($7,500); Larry Fitzgerald, ARI vs. Los Angeles Rams ($7,200)

Mid-Range

Demaryius Thomas, DEN @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,700) – Good for you for not giving up on Thomas this season (Pat, pat, pat).Thomas is still very useful in the right matchup and he certainly brings stout athleticism and moxie. I love Thomas this week travelling to Florida. I see around 5-6 catches, 120 yards and 1 TD. Sure, that’s a bit lofty regarding expectations, but you’ve got to aim big in a tournament setting, right? Thomas will follow last week with very similar numbers.

Other choices: DeSean Jackson, WAS vs. Cleveland Browns ($6,200); Doug Baldwin, SEA @ New York Jets ($6,300)

Value

Mike Wallace, BAL vs. Oakland Raiders ($5,200) – I know, I know, I’m suggesting Mike Wallace for a second week? It’s the matchup. The Raiders can’t stop anything defensively, and, sorry, the Titans don’t count. Look for Big Mike to strike up at least one TD score against the Raiders, maybe even more. The price is pretty good, although I wish it was sub-$5 K.

Other choices: Terrelle Pryor, CLE @ Washington Redskins ($4,300) – I normally don’t write about players in the “Other choices”, so consider Pryor an interesting risk. The price is outstanding, matchup good, and it’s highly obvious the Browns need someone. Badly. Pryor just may be that guy. I won’t fault you for one second for risking a spot on Pryor.

Over-Value

Julio Jones, ATL vs. Carolina Panthers ($9,200) – Jones is not 100% and I can’t bring myself to spend this kind of dough on him facing a solid defense like the Panthers. You get what I’m saying, I’m sure.

TIGHT END

Top Level

Jordan Reed, WAS vs. Cleveland Browns ($6,300)
Greg Olsen, CAR @ Atlanta Falcons ($6,000)

Value

Jason Witten, DAL @ San Francisco 49ers ($4,500)

Over-Value

Delanie Walker, TEN @ Houston Texans ($5,000)

Good luck in Week 4! Feel free to stalk me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy