THE SHADOW KNOWS Week 9 2021

The two teams playing on Sunday night in Week 9 had very interesting weeks.
In Tennessee, the Titans were rocked by the news that star running back Derrick Henry would need surgery to repair a broken bone in his foot. The injury is almost certainly season-ending, and it elevates wide receiver A.J. Brown to the status of the team's top offensive weapon.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles spent the week playing "Let's Make a Deal," acquiring Pro Bowl edge-rusher Von Miller from the Denver Broncos for a pair of Day 2 draft picks. Combined with defensive tackle Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey, the trade gives the Rams three defensive players with better than average chances of being enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame one day.

It's Ramsey who will probably draw Brown in coverage Sunday, especially with Julio Jones banged up and iffy to play. Ramsey will have his hands full though, as Brown has been on quite the rip of late-18 catches for 288 yards and two scores over the last two games. Still, as Lindsey Thiry wrote at ESPN, in the opinion of Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson, if there's one corner in the league who can lock down just about anyone, it's Ramsey.

"He can really obviously cover guys, he can make plays on the ball, he's a physical tackler, he's really intelligent too; you can tell on film. But they've mixed him around," Wilson said. "They've put him outside, obviously, which is his normal thing. But also they have him inside playing some slot and he'll pressure off the edge some too. Wherever he lines up and whoever he is covering, you're in for trouble."

There's no way you can even consider sitting Brown this week-he's as hot as any receiver in the game, and with Henry hurt his already robust target share could climb that much higher. But Brown is going to have to work for every reception and yard, and a fantasy finish outside the top 10 is sadly more likely than one inside the top five.
 

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (Courtland Sutton vs. Trevon Diggs)

Dallas Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs is one of the leading contenders for NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors after eight weeks thanks to seven interceptions over the first six games of the year and a passer rating against of just 43.9. But in the opinion of Pat Fitzmaurice of Fantasy Pros, Denver wide receiver Courtland Sutton has even bigger problems in Week 9-problems that are more in-house.

"It's probably not a coincidence that in Jerry Jeudy's first game back from a high-ankle sprain that he sustained in the season opener, Sutton put up his worst numbers since Week 1, finishing with 2-40-0 on four targets last week against a bad Washington defense," he said. "Sutton is a terrific receiver, but so is Jeudy, and Tim Patrick and Noah Fant are going to see targets, too. A target logjam wouldn't be as concerning if Denver had a quality quarterback, but Teddy Bridgewater is average at best. In addition to the target pressure faces, he's likely to see a lot of Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs, a rising star. Sutton is on the low-end WR2/high-end WR3 fringe this week."

He's not wrong. Diggs has been quite the ballhawk over the first half of the season, but he's also been burned more than once in coverage, allowing the fourth-most receiving yards heading into last week's game with Minnesota. With the pop-gun armed Teddy Bridgewater under center and a healthy Jeudy back and siphoning targets, Sutton's biggest obstacles to a big fantasy day wear the same uniforms he does.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (Tre'Davious White vs. Laviska Shenault)

After eight weeks this season, the Buffalo Bills lead the entire National Football League in pass defense, allowing just 182.4 yards per game. The Bills sport arguably the most talented secondary in the game, but as Pro Bowl cornerback Tre'Davious White told Maddy Glab of the team's website, it's not just the players themselves-it's the amount of time the group has been together.

"You don't see secondaries or guys like this staying together for this long," White said. "I've been fortunate enough to have Jordan (Poyer) and Micah (Hyde) for the five years I've been here. And then Levi (Wallace), this is his fourth year here, too. It's quite special, it's a group that I'll forever cherish."

The Bills haven't just been stingy yardage-wise against the pass in 2021-only the Los Angeles Chargers have given up fewer fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position this season. If that terrible fantasy matchup isn't enough to turn you off Shenault in Week 9, there's also the matter of his target share (or lack thereof). Nine catches for 125 yards isn't a bad line for the second-year pro-until you consider that it's for the last three games combined.

Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles (Mike Williams vs. Darius Slay)

The secondary for the Philadelphia Eagles is anchored by a pair of veteran cornerbacks in Steven Nelson and Darius Slay. But once you get behind those vets, the Eagles cornerback room gets really young really quickly. As Ed Kracz wrote for Eagle Maven, Slay said that he takes the responsibility of being a mentor to those young defensive backs almost as seriously as his role as Philly's No. 1 corner.

"I go to them and tell them what it is," he said. "I say, 'This is why I'm doing it.' Some don't know why that is. Some rookies are shy, afraid to talk. So, I'll come up to them and let them know that I'm an open book, and I'll come up here and teach you how to play this game and help you become a pro."

Slay is admittedly playing much better this year than last-his passer rating against in 2021 is over 30 points lower than it was in his first season with the Eagles. The Eagles as a team are also clamping down well-only two teams have surrendered fewer fantasy points per game to wideouts. Add to that Williams two-game cold snap after a torrid start, and he's a risky WR2 play in Week 9.

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (Brandin Cooks vs. Xavien Howard)

There hasn't been much to smile about in Houston this year. Since winning the season-opener against the Jaguars, Houston has dropped seven in a row-many in blowout fashion. However, the play of veteran wide receiver Brandin Cooks has been a bright spot, and he told Coty Davis of Texans Wire that he's trying to lead by example both on the field and in the locker room.

"At the end of the day, we're not winning, but it's building me perseverance," he said. "God talks about how perseverance creates something through trials. It may be hard in the moment. But I genuinely feel there's light at the end, and I've got to continue to trust that, be a light in dark moments. I've got to continue to lean on."

There was a time (as recently as 2020) when the notion of Xavien Howard covering Cooks all day would have been cause for significant concern. But for most of the 2021 campaign Howard and batterymate Byron Jones have been high-priced hot garbage-only two teams have allowed more fantasy points per game to wide receivers in 2021.

If Cooks gets Tyrod Taylor back at quarterback, that's just icing on the cake.

Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens (Justin Jefferson vs. Marlon Humphrey)

Justin Jefferson's rookie receiving record may wind up lasting just one year thanks to the exploits of Ja'Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals. However, the 22-year-old is a burgeoning star in his own right. Per ESPN's Todd Archer and Courtney Cronin, at least one NFC Area Scout raved about Jefferson's route-running acumen.

"He was very smooth," the scout said. "You could tell he was a top-notch athlete the way he would come in and out of his breaks; it was easy to drop his weight. He could do all the things that the top receivers before him were doing and the ones that are coming out this year are doing ... He was beating the people they're putting on him. Even if it's the No. 2 or No. 3, he's still going to win, which is a good thing because some people don't play up to their opponent's ability. Some people drop down, so if I see I'm getting backups, I don't have to go as hard. That wasn't Justin."

This matchup has a couple interesting subplots, whether it's Jefferson's second straight matchup with a big-name corner or Humphrey trying to rebound from getting smoked by Chase. It's that 201-yard performance by Chase that really stands out here-if he can go off to that extent against Humphrey it bodes well for Jefferson's chances of posting WR1 numbers in Week 9.

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Giants (Bryan Edwards vs. James Bradberry)

It's been a rough few weeks for the Las Vegas Raiders. First head coach Jon Gruden left amid a firestorm of controversy over racist and misogynistic tweets. Then wide receiver Henry Ruggs was released after being charged with DUI following a crash in Vegas that resulted in a young woman's depth. With Ruggs gone, the Raiders need someone to step into the No. 1 role, and this week against the Giants Matt Harmon of Yahoo Sports expects second-year pro Bryan Edwards to be that guy.

"There's now an opening in Las Vegas' vertical passing game," he said. "Edwards was already first on the team in routes run but will have to take on more of the target burden as the team's primary outside receiver. Most of his work has already come downfield as noted by his hefty 15.9 average depth of target and has been Derek Carr's preferred target in the contested catch game. This week's matchup against the Giants isn't too intimidating and frankly, this prediction is more about Carr. He's just not getting the credit he deserves as a "rising tide for all boats" guy this season. A legit talent, Edwards now stands to benefit."

Edwards' talent isn't in question, but given his coverage matchup this week a big game certainly is. James Bradberry is a lanky, physical corner who excels against larger wide receivers like Edwards. Still, the G-Men are allowing the ninth-most PPR points per game to wide receivers, so there's enough upside present with Edwards to get him in the WR3/4 conversation, even if it's a play with some risk.