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Draft Analysis of Sirius Flex Draft
By Jen Ryan
Last Friday, I had the privilege of drafting in Jake Ceily’s annual FLEX league. This is my fourth season and I lucked into this league. True story: our very own Bob Harris couldn’t make it down to Washington, D.C. for FLEX and Emil Kadlec sent me down there in Bob’s place. I’ve been trying my best to make them both proud ever since.
This league is no joke. At all. My competition is some of the most well known names in the fantasy football world. Check out the draft results here: (https://www78.myfantasyleague.com/2019/options?L=19353&O=17) to see what I am up against.
The format is as sharp as the draft pool: Superflex, 0.5 PPR, 4 points for a passing touchdown, -2 points for a pick, and 4 points for any return touchdown.
I will have my work cut out for me (again) this season.
This draft unfolded like many “industry” drafts. Value was non-existent, no player really “fell, and no one was afraid to “get their guy”. Here is how I did in this sea full of sharks through 16 rounds, drafting from the fourth spot..
1.04 – Ezekiel Elliott, RBSave your homer quips. Few backs in the NFL offer the guaranteed volume and upside of Elliott. The offense revolves around him. I was asked on air if there was concern about his “hold out”. There are no concerns at all, Jerry Jones is going to make Zeke a very rich young man, and to quote Jones himself “deadlines make deals”.
He can keep training in Cabo. The less he is hit in practice, the better.
2.09 – Mike Evans, WRI drafted Evans here essentially at cost. As I mentioned earlier, value wasn’t exactly falling here. There is a ton of Chris Godwin hype but it is impossible not to be excited about Evans in Bruce Arian’s offense. He’s been a thousand yard receiver in every season of his career and will now be under the tutelage of the best coach he’s had in his career.
3.04 – Keenan Allen, WRI was surprised to see T.Y. Hilton and Kerryon Johnson drafted ahead of Allen, but I am not second guessing Dane here. He is a stat nerd with a personality to boot. Still, I was happy to get Allen here. He’s averaging over 147 targets over the past two seasons.
4.09 – Melvin Gordon, RBThis wasn’t planned and I am not one to stack a receiver with his running back (in the event Gordon remains a Charger) but there was no way I was going to miss out on a late-fourth Gordon share. He’s scored 38 touchdowns over the past three seasons and will be just fine whether he is in San Diego or really anywhere else.
5.04 – Mark Ingram, RB“Got my guy”. There isn’t a back I have with more ownership than Ingram. I view him as a 15+ touch guy in every game that he plays, and that feels conservative.
6.09 – Tyler Lockett, WRMy WR3 is a WR1. Granted the Seahawks are a “run-first” team, but Russell Wilson slings the football and the retirement of Doug Baldwin has vacated 189 targets over the past two seasons. Lockett is getting a chunk of those.
7.04 – Tom Brady, QBDid I mention this is a Superflex? I was the last team to select a quarterback and drafted Brady as the QB20. I’d bet anyone who will take the action that Brady finishes within the top-20 this season. He’s been QB10 or better in four of the past five years (https://www.footballdiehards.com/appls/PlayerCharts.cfm).
8.09 – Matthew Stafford, QBWith a bit of a lull in between picks I doubled-down on the position here. Again, another quarterback drafted outside of the top-20 (QB22) that likely finishes inside the top-20. It is natural to value quarterbacks highly in a Superflex, but the 4 point TD/-2 point interception ratio actually devalues the position a tick.
9.04 – Keke Coutee, WRIf you ever told me I would draft a receiver with 28 career catches ahead of A.J. Green I would politely ask you if you were feeling okay. That is exactly what happened here. Shocking, yes. My friend Adam Ronis was brave enough, and straight-up stole Green in the ninth round.
10.09 – Adrian Peterson, RBI feel similarly good about the upside here as I did with Lockett. Peterson is the (likely) RB1 and good depth on my team as my RB4. Derrius Guice could be 100% healthy for 16 games and it won’t matter a huge deal – Peterson isn’t a bench player.
11.04 – Austin Hooper, TERemember this is a league we are playing out and this is a position I can stream. Hooper’s upside as the third option in an explosive passing attack is appealing, as is his red zone upside. Unless he turns out to be a “set it and forget it” player in the first few weeks I’ll drop and add a handful of tight ends throughout the season and play the match ups.
12.09 – John Brown, WRJosh Allen to John Brown bombs all day, please. He has been an incredibly underrated wide receiver his entire career and now finds himself in a situation where his second-year quarterback has garnered a reputation for throwing the deep ball. I love this pick in the 12th round.
13.04 – Albert Wilson, WRI welcome a Fitzmagic slot connection here. Wilson has tremendous upside and talent and really is in a great position to succeed in 2019. With Fitzpatrick under center we are going to see a lot of deep balls to Kenny Stills and short passes to Albert Wilson with very little in between. Factor in the Dolphins playing from behind in more games than not and the 0.5 PPR format, Wilson is a high-upside dart here.
14.09 – Tre’Quan Smith, WRTo get a piece of Drew Brees pie this late works for me. Of course I prefer Smith in a best ball format, but for depth here I could do way worse. Tre’Quan will be a flex play in certain weeks and, if injury hits anyone in the passing attack he will see an immediate upgrade.
15.04 – Bilal Powell, RBThis late in the draft you are sort of looking at who is there and thinking, “Eh, sure” and that is exactly what this Powell pick is. Who is to say if he is even on my team after Week 1. He simply adds more depth to the position.
16.09 – Dallas Cowboys, DSTI will not bore you with analysis on a defense. They tackle, attack the ball, generate turnovers, and tend to keep scoring low. Good enough for me. Plus, it is easy to root for my team in Fantasy.
Oh, and NO kicker, thanks again for that Jake!
Feel free to let me know how I did, and follow along through out the season as we play this one out for a VERY fancy belt courtesy of @FantasyJocks.