DFS Gut Plays week 5 2017

By JJ Buck

If you’re reading this, you are amid a whirlwind of fantasy opinion and football statistic overload. With this article, we are looking at matchups that standout after a quick look over of the schedule and prices; going with your gut. Sometimes the obvious play is the best. Other times, it burns us. We’ll try to split the difference. Here we’ll look at Draft Kings (DK) and Yahoo Sports (YS). As always, be sure to know the scoring settings of what you are playing; DK is a PPR league as opposed to .5 PPR for Yahoo.

Quarterbacks

Brain Hoyer – San Francisco – (DK $4,700 – YS $21)
The 49ers visit Indianapolis, a team that has given up 283-yards a game through the air. Opposing QB’s have thrown for 306, 332, 259 and 295 yards against the Colts defense. While Hoyer’s 5.8 yards per-attempt and two-to-four touchdown-to-interception ratio are no Bueno, he should rack up plenty of completions to come out with a solid day. (IND -1.5, O/U 44)

Josh McCown – New York Jets – (DK $4,500 – YS $23)
Cleveland is right behind the Colts in yards per-attempt given up; 8.3-to-8.5. Has the Browns run defense been good or have teams decide to beat them through the air? Either way it’s one of the journey-man QB’s 18 revenge games. I don’t think we’ll get and Andy Dalton four TD performance out of him, but a 250 and 2 TD line going off the boards and saving salary sounds good. (CLE -1.5, O/U 39)

Running Backs

DeMarco Murray – Tennessee – (DK $5,900 – YS $19)
I always tell myself to expect the unexpected. Houston destroying Tennessee as Deshawn Watson looked like he was playing against Boston College was just that. With Marcus Mariota questionable and a Miami team that has already flown to California and England, expect the Titans to lean on their offensive line. Murray’s price is way down. Derrick Henry (DK $5,200, YS $18) is also a consideration as Miami’s good numbers – they have only surrendered 77 rush-yards a game – will be put to the test even with Matt Cassel under center. It’s all about the volume here. (TEN -3, O/U TBD)

Christian McCaffrey – Carolina – (DK $5,700 – YS $20)
His price has finally cooled off on DK. Cam Newton was able to take advantage of a pour New England secondary last week stretching the field. McCaffrey has at least five-targets through four games this season and at Detroit I expect that trend to continue as Newton looks underneath a few more times. (DET -3, O/U 44)

Andre Ellington – Arizona – (DK $4,600 - $13)
Receptions are a common theme among my selections this week. Last week we talked about how Carson Palmer’s pass attempts will mirror the teams total rushing yards. Against San Francisco Palmer threw 51 times as the Cardinals rushed for 51-yards. Ellington soaked up nine receptions on 14-targets. I don’t see that changing much in Philadelphia this weekend. (PHI -6.5, O/U 45)

Quick Hits
LeSean McCoy – (DK $7,600 – YS $31) – scores his first TD of the year at Cincinnati.

Aaron Jones – (DK $5,000 – YS $14) – as the Ty Montgomery rib news goes back-and-fourth, Jones ownership percentage on Sunday could be sky-high, fade time?

Wide Receiver

Martavis Bryant – Pittsburgh – (DK $5,000 – YS $22)

Ben Roethlisberger’s home-and-road splits are well documented. The Jacksonville defense has finally starter to put some of that draft talent together, but I’m better on black-and-gold this week. Bryant is about that big play potential. In his lone home game this season Bryant dropped a 3-91-1 line on Minnesota. Despite the back-and-fourth between Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown this week, I like their offense this weekend. (PIT -8.5, O/U 43.5)

Pierre Garcon – WAS – (DK $6,100 – YS $17)
Stack-it-up, the former Colt leads the 49er s with 33 targets and I expect him to soak up plenty in this week’s matchup. (IND -1.5, O/U 44)

T.Y. Hilton – Indianapolis – (DK $6,000 – YS $22)
Can we get a sneaky shootout? The 49ers have given up the fourth most receptions to WR this season (53) and Hilton is now going into week four with Jacoby Brissett. Hilton has been quiet outside of his 7-153-1 game against Cleveland; this matchup provides the chance to eclipse a hundred receiving yards and a trip to the end zone.

Jaron Brown – Arizona – (DK $4,500 – YS $12)
There are three Cardinals wide outs priced higher than Jaron Brown. Jaron has turned 29 targets over the last three weeks into 14-205-1. We know the plan here; throw until Palmer’s arm falls off.

DK Receptions Fillers – Jarvis Landry ($5,700), Brandon Marshall ($4,600)

YS Touchdown Makers – Dez Bryant ($26), Stefon Diggs ($25)

Tight Ends

Evan Engram – New York Giants – (DK $4,000 – YS $12)
The only team that has more passes attempted than the Giants is the Cardinals. His price hasn’t jumped on Yahoo yet due to the full PPR impact he has on DK. The Chargers cross country trip only means we are in for another close ball game decided in the final minutes. (NYG -3.5, O/U 44/5)

Austin Seferian-Jenkins – N.Y. Jets – (DK $3,500 – YS $13)
In the first two games ASF has played with McCown, the TE has grabbed nine receptions on 10 targets. The chemistry and numbers will continue to grow against a Browns defense that has given up a league high 30 receptions to opposing TE’s and four trips to the end zone.

Defense

Minnesota (DK $3,700 – YS $10) – my play on YS this week with Mitch Trubisky making his first career start for the Bears Monday night.

Yahoo Cup Review

115.08 points scored Week 3; 38,647th place out of 332,963 entries.
QB – Philip Rivers – (19.88) – No interceptions and just one fumble lost, that’s progress.
RB – Devonta Freeman – (14.80) – is riding the TD train, only 58-yards rushing.
RB – Duke Johnson Jr. – (16.50) – Nine receptions and a garbage time TD!
WR – Golden Tate – (4.60) – Consistency is an issue.
WR – Larry Fitzgerald – (11.20) – A week saving and game winning TD in overtime.
WR – Keenan Allen – (16.30) – 5-for-138.
TE – Travis Kelce – (20.90) – east play as the week’s number one TE.
Flex – Christian McCaffrey – (6.90) – if only he could have run through the Patriots secondary.
DEF – Atlanta – (4.00) – Tip of the cap to Buffalo, heck of a road win.

Odds from VegasInsider.com